跨文化语境中的伊斯兰影响研究

本文以但丁的《神曲》为载体,以先知登宵故事在欧洲的传播为线索,研究伊斯兰文化如何在跨文化的语境中进行传播,以及此种传播如何扩大了伊斯兰文化的世界影响力并使得中世纪的欧洲文化带有显著的混合文化的特点。     

城市化水平愈高会愈减少歧视吗?——中国城市居民与外来务工人员之间的社会距离

文章通过对2005年全国综合社会调查数据分析,发现随着一个城市城市化水平的增加,城市居民对居住在这个城市的外来务工人员的歧视态度也愈加严重;沿海地区城市居民比内陆地区城市居民对外来务工人员的歧视度要高。     

Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?

Overconfidence is used to explain various instances of detrimental decision making. In behavioral economic and finance models, it is usually captured by misperceiving the reliability of signals and results in overweighting private information. Empirical tests of these models often fail to find evidence for the predicted effects of overconfidence. These studies assume, however, that a specific type of overconfidence, i.e. “miscalibration,” captures the underlying trait. We challenge this assumption and borrow the psychological methodology of single-cue probability learning to obtain a direct measure for misperceiving signal reliability. Our findings indicate that the perception of signal precision and measures of miscalibration are unrelated. We thus conclude that in order to test the theoretical predictions of the overconfidence literature in economics and finance, one cannot rely on the well-established miscalibration bias.     

中国情境中的上下级关系构念研究述评——兼论领导——成员交换理论的本土贴切性

作为组织动力学的核心课题,上下级关系研究在关系导向和权威导向的中国文化中具有较强的现实意义,也正日益成为学界的研究热点。目前文献对上下级关系的研究存在构念上的分歧,表现为客位构念领导-成员交换(Leader-Member Exchange, LMX)和主位构念上下级关系(Supervisor-subordinate Guanxi,SSG)的分歧,以及对主位构念SSG的不同界定。在文献梳理和理论分析的基础上,本文提出:(1)中国情境中的上下级关系与LMX所描述的关系在关系形态和交换原则上存在本质差异,故需加强主位构念SSG的研究;(2)现存分歧较大的三种SSG构念各有侧重,有必要建立更具整合性的SSG构念;(3)多维度构念的剖面模型及在此基础上的原型分类适用于建立整合的SSG构念。     

中国情境下高绩效工作系统与企业绩效关系的元分析

用传统的定性综述方法对中国情境下高绩效工作系统与企业绩效的关系强度的研究,至今尚未得出一致结论.本文运用定量综述研究最重要的统计学方法——元分析,对中国情境下高绩效工作系统与企业绩效关系的53篇实证研究文献进行了合并,共获得8788个独立样本、316个效应值,总样本量达58946个.元分析结果发现:(1)高绩效工作系统对企业绩效存在显著正向影响(rz=0.419.p＜0.001),并且它对非财务类绩效(创新绩效、人力资源管理绩效、组织运作绩效)的影响大于对财务类绩效(财务会计绩效、资本市场绩效)的影响;(2)高绩效工作系统与企业绩效的相关性在中国情境下比在西方情境下更大,并且高绩效工作系统对企业绩效影响程度大于单个实践对企业绩效影响程度的简单加总;(3)信息分享与沟通、绩效考核与管理两项高绩效工作实践在中国情境下与企业绩效高度相关,而在西方文化中与企业绩效的相关性并不显著,之前国内的定性综述结论中也认为信息分享与沟通对企业绩效的贡献不大.本文的研究结果可让中国情境下高绩效工作系统与企业绩效的关系研究得出定论,并为未来的高绩效工作系统相关研究指明方向.     

Omission and commission errors in network cognition and network estimation using ROC curve

Network studies on cognitive social structures collect relational data on respondents’ direct ties and their perception of ties among all other individuals in the network. When reporting their perception networks, respondents commit two types of errors, namely, omission (false negatives) and commission (false positives) errors. We first assess the relationship between these two error types, and their contributions on overall respondent accuracy. Next we propose a method for estimating networks based on perceptions of a random sample of respondents from a bounded social network, which utilizes the receiver operator characteristic curve for balancing the tradeoffs between omission and commission errors.     

Why does college education matter? Unveiling the contributions of selection factors

This study investigates the contributions of pre-college selection factors that may partially lead to the college degree – health link by using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979) cohort. Propensity score matching method finds that the effects of college degree on various health outcomes (self-rated health, physical component summary index, health limitations, CESD scale) are reduced by 51% on average (range: 37%–70%) in the matched sample. Among these observed factors, cognitive skill is the biggest confounder, followed by pre-college health and socioeconomic characteristics (marital aspiration, years of schooling, marriage, fertility, poverty status) and non-cognitive skills (e.g., self-esteem). Rotter Internal-External Locus of Control scale is not significantly associated with all four health measures. The effects of most indicators of family background (parental education, family stability, family size, religious background) on the health of adult children are not direct but through offspring's early adulthood health and socioeconomic status.     

The importance of survey content: Testing for the context dependency of the New Ecological Paradigm Scale

Using a regression-based analysis of a survey of U.S. households, we demonstrate that both environmental concern, as measured by the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) Scale, and facets of environmental concern, as measured by three NEP factors, are influenced by survey context. Survey respondents were presented with detailed information about two to four threatened and endangered marine species in the United States, including the Endangered Species Act listing status of the species and threats to the survival of the species. All else being equal, measures of environmental concern are influenced by both which species were included in the survey and by the concern expressed about these species. As such, measures of environmental concern are found to be context dependent since they are correlated with the species included in each survey. We also demonstrate that NEP-based measures of environmental concern are affected by socio-demographic variables, opinions about government spending, and environmental knowledge. Given the wide, multi-disciplinary use of the NEP Scale, it is important for researchers to recognize that NEP-based measures of environmental concern may be sensitive to information included in surveys.     

Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis

Behavioral decision research has demonstrated that judgments and decisions of ordinary people and experts are subject to numerous biases. Decision and risk analysis were designed to improve judgments and decisions and to overcome many of these biases. However, when eliciting model components and parameters from decisionmakers or experts, analysts often face the very biases they are trying to help overcome. When these inputs are biased they can seriously reduce the quality of the model and resulting analysis. Some of these biases are due to faulty cognitive processes; some are due to motivations for preferred analysis outcomes. This article identifies the cognitive and motivational biases that are relevant for decision and risk analysis because they can distort analysis inputs and are difficult to correct. We also review and provide guidance about the existing debiasing techniques to overcome these biases. In addition, we describe some biases that are less relevant because they can be corrected by using logic or decomposing the elicitation task. We conclude the article with an agenda for future research.     

Sequential classification on partially ordered sets

Summary. A general theorem on the asymptotically optimal sequential selection of experiments is presented and applied to a Bayesian classification problem when the parameter space is a finite partially ordered set. The main results include establishing conditions under which the posterior probability of the true state converges to 1 almost surely and determining optimal rates of convergence. Properties of a class of experiment selection rules are explored.