李贺诗歌悲剧意识的审美分析

李贺的出现是中国文学史上的一个奇迹。他似乎不循任何理路,不遵任何规范。像雨后的彩虹,凭空而来,又倏尔逝去。但是,当我们试图超越生命或深人生命时,我们又是那样真实地感受到李贺的存在,他的诗歌素来以悲凄、怪诞著称,诗作从里到外都渗透着一股浓重的悲剧意识。本文着重从审美角度来分析李贺诗歌的悲剧意识：以病为美、以悲为美、以寒为美、以怪为美。     

Using unlabelled data to update classification rules with applications in food authenticity studies

Summary.  An authentic food is one that is what it purports to be. Food processors and consumers need to be assured that, when they pay for a specific product or ingredient, they are receiving exactly what they pay for. Classification methods are an important tool in food authenticity studies where they are used to assign food samples of unknown type to known types. A classification method is developed where the classification rule is estimated by using both the labelled and the unlabelled data, in contrast with many classical methods which use only the labelled data for estimation. This methodology models the data as arising from a Gaussian mixture model with parsimonious covariance structure, as is done in model-based clustering. A missing data formulation of the mixture model is used and the models are fitted by using the EM and classification EM algorithms. The methods are applied to the analysis of spectra of food-stuffs recorded over the visible and near infra-red wavelength range in food authenticity studies. A comparison of the performance of model-based discriminant analysis and the method of classification proposed is given. The classification method proposed is shown to yield very good misclassification rates. The correct classification rate was observed to be as much as 15% higher than the correct classification rate for model-based discriminant analysis.     

Talcott Parsons and national socialism: The case of the “ten mysterious missing letters”

This essay is a response to questions raised by my review of a book by Uta Gerhardt called Talcott Parsons on National Socialism.In short, I found many issues unresolved in the Cold War years from 1946 to 1954 at Harvard University, especially the role of Talcott Parons and Clyde Kluckhohn in allegedly bringing Nazi collaborators to the United States. I have tried to address these controversial issues in this response.     

坚持从战略全局观察与处理中日关系

与经济领域的热火场面相比,在政治以及安全领域,近来中日关系不断遭遇冷风。从本质上看,“经热政冷”的状况是由冷战后日本国家利益和战略选择的结构性矛盾造成的;同时,与近年来美国对日政策的调整有着密切关系,也离不开日本的国内因素影响。“政冷”的发展,日益严重地制约了“经热”,而且由于中日关系的“政冷”已由历史认识和外交层面的矛盾,提升到安全领域的摩擦,这更使“政冷”日趋危险。为了避免发生有违于中日根本利益的冲突,必须从战略全局来观察与处理中日关系。     

Reliability Properties of Systems with Two Exchangeable Log-Logistic Components

In this article, we study the reliability properties of systems under bivariate log-logistic model which comes out from a particular stress-strength analysis. For this model, we obtain basic reliability characteristics of series and parallel systems and investigate their properties. We also derive distribution and moments of cold standby system under the abovementioned exchangeable model.     

New Prediction Interval and Band in the Nonlinear Regression Model: Application to Predictive Modeling in Foods

This article is concerned with the proposal of a new prediction interval and band for the nonlinear regression model. The construction principle of this interval and band is based on an exact (the meaning of the term “exact” will be given later) confidence region for parameters of the nonlinear regression model. This region, fully described in Vila and Gauchi (2007 Vila , J.-P. , Gauchi , J.-P. ( 2007 ). Optimal designs based on exact confidence regions for parameter estimation of a nonlinear regression model . Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 137 ( 9 ): 2935 – 2953 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), provides a rigorous justification for the new prediction interval and band that we propose. This new band is then compared to the classical bands (which are asymptotic and thus approximate for small n), and also to the band based on the bootstrap resampling method. The comparison of these bands is undertaken with simulated and real data from predictive modeling in food science.     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

Evaluation of Multicriteria Decision Analysis Algorithms in Food Safety: A Case Study on Emerging Zoonoses Prioritization

Decision making in food safety is a complex process that involves several criteria of different nature like the expected reduction in the number of illnesses, the potential economic or health-related cost, or even the environmental impact of a given policy or intervention. Several multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) algorithms are currently used, mostly individually, in food safety to rank different options in a multifactorial environment. However, the selection of the MCDA algorithm is a decision problem on its own because different methods calculate different rankings. The aim of this study was to compare the impact of different uncertainty sources on the rankings of MCDA problems in the context of food safety. For that purpose, a previously published data set on emerging zoonoses in the Netherlands was used to compare different MCDA algorithms: MMOORA, TOPSIS, VIKOR, WASPAS, and ELECTRE III. The rankings were calculated with and without considering uncertainty (using fuzzy sets), to assess the importance of this factor. The rankings obtained differed between algorithms, emphasizing that the selection of the MCDA method had a relevant impact in the rankings. Furthermore, considering uncertainty in the ranking had a high influence on the results. Both factors were more relevant than the weights associated with each criterion in this case study. A hierarchical clustering method was suggested to aggregate results obtained by the different algorithms. This complementary step seems to be a promising way to decrease extreme difference among algorithms and could provide a strong added value in the decision-making process.     

Putting place on the menu: The negotiation of locality in UK food tourism,from production to consumption

This paper uses a case study of tourism in the Lake District and Exmoor to explore the relationship between ‘local food’ and sustainable rural tourism in the UK. Drawing on qualitative interviews with tourists, food producers and café, pub and restaurant owners, I use an approach based upon the commodity chain to trace the shifts in the discursive and material understandings of the ‘local’ that take place throughout the tourist food chain. These shifts are shown to occur in response to the need to negotiate the tensions between the ideals and the practicalities of food production and consumption which occur as a result of the relationships that exist throughout the food chain. Such conclusions are shown to be important for our understanding of the links between ‘local food’ and sustainable rural tourism because they indicate that we must attend to the values, as well as the practicalities, that drive the contemporary food sector at all stages of the food chain, from production to consumption.     

冷战结束前印度和中亚关系的历史变迁

印度一直把中亚看作是自己＂延伸的邻国＂,两个地区从远古到现代在政治、经济和文化等方面都存在着诸多联系。文章试图从古代、中世纪、近代及冷战期间四个阶段论述两个地区间的交往和联系,以期为我们在新形势下解读崛起的印度同中亚地区的关系提供宝贵的历史经验和借鉴。