坚持从战略全局观察与处理中日关系

与经济领域的热火场面相比,在政治以及安全领域,近来中日关系不断遭遇冷风。从本质上看,“经热政冷”的状况是由冷战后日本国家利益和战略选择的结构性矛盾造成的;同时,与近年来美国对日政策的调整有着密切关系,也离不开日本的国内因素影响。“政冷”的发展,日益严重地制约了“经热”,而且由于中日关系的“政冷”已由历史认识和外交层面的矛盾,提升到安全领域的摩擦,这更使“政冷”日趋危险。为了避免发生有违于中日根本利益的冲突,必须从战略全局来观察与处理中日关系。     

Reliability Properties of Systems with Two Exchangeable Log-Logistic Components

In this article, we study the reliability properties of systems under bivariate log-logistic model which comes out from a particular stress-strength analysis. For this model, we obtain basic reliability characteristics of series and parallel systems and investigate their properties. We also derive distribution and moments of cold standby system under the abovementioned exchangeable model.     

New Prediction Interval and Band in the Nonlinear Regression Model: Application to Predictive Modeling in Foods

This article is concerned with the proposal of a new prediction interval and band for the nonlinear regression model. The construction principle of this interval and band is based on an exact (the meaning of the term “exact” will be given later) confidence region for parameters of the nonlinear regression model. This region, fully described in Vila and Gauchi (2007 Vila , J.-P. , Gauchi , J.-P. ( 2007 ). Optimal designs based on exact confidence regions for parameter estimation of a nonlinear regression model . Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 137 ( 9 ): 2935 – 2953 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), provides a rigorous justification for the new prediction interval and band that we propose. This new band is then compared to the classical bands (which are asymptotic and thus approximate for small n), and also to the band based on the bootstrap resampling method. The comparison of these bands is undertaken with simulated and real data from predictive modeling in food science.     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

Evaluation of Multicriteria Decision Analysis Algorithms in Food Safety: A Case Study on Emerging Zoonoses Prioritization

Decision making in food safety is a complex process that involves several criteria of different nature like the expected reduction in the number of illnesses, the potential economic or health-related cost, or even the environmental impact of a given policy or intervention. Several multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) algorithms are currently used, mostly individually, in food safety to rank different options in a multifactorial environment. However, the selection of the MCDA algorithm is a decision problem on its own because different methods calculate different rankings. The aim of this study was to compare the impact of different uncertainty sources on the rankings of MCDA problems in the context of food safety. For that purpose, a previously published data set on emerging zoonoses in the Netherlands was used to compare different MCDA algorithms: MMOORA, TOPSIS, VIKOR, WASPAS, and ELECTRE III. The rankings were calculated with and without considering uncertainty (using fuzzy sets), to assess the importance of this factor. The rankings obtained differed between algorithms, emphasizing that the selection of the MCDA method had a relevant impact in the rankings. Furthermore, considering uncertainty in the ranking had a high influence on the results. Both factors were more relevant than the weights associated with each criterion in this case study. A hierarchical clustering method was suggested to aggregate results obtained by the different algorithms. This complementary step seems to be a promising way to decrease extreme difference among algorithms and could provide a strong added value in the decision-making process.     

冷战结束前印度和中亚关系的历史变迁

印度一直把中亚看作是自己＂延伸的邻国＂,两个地区从远古到现代在政治、经济和文化等方面都存在着诸多联系。文章试图从古代、中世纪、近代及冷战期间四个阶段论述两个地区间的交往和联系,以期为我们在新形势下解读崛起的印度同中亚地区的关系提供宝贵的历史经验和借鉴。     

Putting place on the menu: The negotiation of locality in UK food tourism,from production to consumption

This paper uses a case study of tourism in the Lake District and Exmoor to explore the relationship between ‘local food’ and sustainable rural tourism in the UK. Drawing on qualitative interviews with tourists, food producers and café, pub and restaurant owners, I use an approach based upon the commodity chain to trace the shifts in the discursive and material understandings of the ‘local’ that take place throughout the tourist food chain. These shifts are shown to occur in response to the need to negotiate the tensions between the ideals and the practicalities of food production and consumption which occur as a result of the relationships that exist throughout the food chain. Such conclusions are shown to be important for our understanding of the links between ‘local food’ and sustainable rural tourism because they indicate that we must attend to the values, as well as the practicalities, that drive the contemporary food sector at all stages of the food chain, from production to consumption.     

劳动力转移与粮食安全

中国快速城市化和工业化导致的大量农村劳动力向城市转移引起了决策者和学术界对粮食安全问题的担忧,但本文利用县级和农户面板数据研究发现：首先,即使到2010年,农村劳动力转移对粮食总产量的影响并不大,对主产区的粮食总产量的影响更小,这背后的机制是主产区农户会通过更多地增加其他农业生产要素来替代劳动力投入的减少;其次,劳动力转移对主产区和非主产区农户的粮食生产行为的影响以及对主要粮食作物和次要粮食作物的影响都有所不同。总之,农村劳动力迁移尚未严重威胁到中国的粮食安全,当然,政府应针对粮食主产区和非主产区实施不同的政策以保持粮食总产量的稳定,特别是要鼓励主产区的耕地流转以降低劳动力迁移的负面影响。     

《寒夜》与巴金的女性伦理观

《寒夜》是巴金的一部重要代表作,极具感染力,描写了在抗战后期作为陪都的重庆的一个小知识分子的家庭生活。作家把眼光从关注大家庭、关注社会变迁转移到关注小人物的日常生活。文章试图从曾树生的悲剧命运中探析巴金这时期的女性伦理观,在女性解放的浪潮下巴金的女性伦理观日趋成熟客观,曾树生体现了那个时代知识女性的理想与现实的错位给她们带来的尴尬处境。曾树生正是作家这时期对女性解放的思考的一个结果,也是作家对于现代女性,尤其是知识女性出路的一种困惑和无奈心境的真实写照。     

美国食品安全的监管变革及其对我国的启示

美国《FDA食品安全现代法》的出台,标志着美国对原有食品安全监管体系进行了彻底变革,其力度之大、范围之广以及程度之深,不仅在联邦食品药品管理局成立的70余年历史上是前所未有的,而且在全世界范围内也堪称一部模范性法律,一定程度上代表了今后食品安全监管改革的方向.由于采取了相似的管理体制,并且同样面临着食品来源多样以及监管资源不足等挑战,中、美两国在食品安全监管领域面临的很多问题都是共通的,因此,美国的变革举措尤其是强调预防控制的新思路理应为中国所借鉴.