Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High‐Dimensional Data

In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data‐rich environments. We can handle very many control variables, endogenous receipt of treatment, heterogeneous treatment effects, and function‐valued outcomes. Our framework covers the special case of exogenous receipt of treatment, either conditional on controls or unconditionally as in randomized control trials. In the latter case, our approach produces efficient estimators and honest bands for (functional) average treatment effects (ATE) and quantile treatment effects (QTE). To make informative inference possible, we assume that key reduced‐form predictive relationships are approximately sparse. This assumption allows the use of regularization and selection methods to estimate those relations, and we provide methods for post‐regularization and post‐selection inference that are uniformly valid (honest) across a wide range of models. We show that a key ingredient enabling honest inference is the use of orthogonal or doubly robust moment conditions in estimating certain reduced‐form functional parameters. We illustrate the use of the proposed methods with an application to estimating the effect of 401(k) eligibility and participation on accumulated assets. The results on program evaluation are obtained as a consequence of more general results on honest inference in a general moment‐condition framework, which arises from structural equation models in econometrics. Here, too, the crucial ingredient is the use of orthogonal moment conditions, which can be constructed from the initial moment conditions. We provide results on honest inference for (function‐valued) parameters within this general framework where any high‐quality, machine learning methods (e.g., boosted trees, deep neural networks, random forest, and their aggregated and hybrid versions) can be used to learn the nonparametric/high‐dimensional components of the model. These include a number of supporting auxiliary results that are of major independent interest: namely, we (1) prove uniform validity of a multiplier bootstrap, (2) offer a uniformly valid functional delta method, and (3) provide results for sparsity‐based estimation of regression functions for function‐valued outcomes.     

中俄能源合作中的问题及对中国的影响

因“安大线”方案搁浅中俄能源合作面临了严峻挑战,两国对地区能源合作的利益诉求是决定双方合作的动机和关键因素。但在中俄能源合作中,日本扮演了第三方竞争角色,中俄日能源三角关系中将呈现出不同的合作模式,但其经济依存关系将导致三方既合作又竞争。俄大打石油王牌旨在提升其国际地位与作用,其奉行的外交策略将会导致中日之间对俄罗斯能源的竞争趋势。中俄能源合作中依然存在着一系列不确定因素,对双方的合作前景将产生影响。西方大国势力对俄罗斯石油资源的觊觎和争夺将加剧中俄能源合作面临的挑战。为此,中方应该充分发挥两国关系中的合作优势潜力,采取有效措施,协调与俄罗斯的利益差异,理顺双方经贸合作关系。     

从俞平伯晚年自省和“李希凡自述”想到的(之三)——回应俞平伯晚年的红学研究反思

俞平伯先生晚年的红学自省是真实可信的,应引起红学界高度重视,他的红学研究思想的重大变化同1954年那场对他的批评有内在的因果关系。对当年那场"批俞评红"不能全盘否定,不能只讲负面问题,全面否定其正确性和必要性。现在红学研究的一些乱象正是当年批判过了的错误研究思想、研究方法的泛滥。这种泛滥同对当年的全盘否定不无关系。     

儒家“义—利”价值结构与西方“财富”价值结构比较研究简

通过中国儒家和西方经济价值结构的比较研究，发现儒家以“义一利”为价值结构模型，西方以“财富”为价值结构模型。儒家价值结构的基本特征是“义体利用”，表现方式是：强国的道义在于顺天时、尽地利、忠人和；安国的道义在于民朴民富；治国的道义在于蓄储俭用。西方价值结构的基本特征是“利体义用”，表现方式是：鼓励获取财富、财富规则和财富责任。儒家“义一利”价值结构与西方“财富”价值结构是两种不同的价值评判话语体系，在中国现代“义利共体”的价值结构建构中，儒家价值结构提供着人文精神基础，西方价值结构提供着物质文明建设可资借鉴的经验。     

论对大学生进行财商教育的重要意义

传承传统重义轻利观念的大学教育,对学生的财富意识具有极大的压抑作用。改革开放以来,一部分人陷入拜金主义的泥潭,一部分人则保持着"饿死事小失节事大"的极端思想。调查的结果令人担忧,大学生财商整体水平较低。对大学生进行财商教育,是实现教育"使人更幸福地生活"目的之必然要求。     

A qualitative study on participants’ perceptions of child development accounts in Korea

ABSTRACT

In 2007, Korea implemented Child Development Accounts (CDAs) for institutionalised children in child welfare systems. Since then, the target group and a matching cap of CDAs in Korea have evolved. The target group expanded to include poor children receiving welfare, whereas the matching cap increased from KRW 30,000 (US$26.53) to KRW 40,000 (US$35.38), which is matched at a 1:1 rate. Despite the expansion, there is little empirical evidence examining the extent to which CDAs have influenced the life of participants. Using a content analysis method with a sample (N = 22), this study examines how CDAs have changed children’s mindsets, saving habits, education, future planning and sponsorship. The findings suggest that CDAs have multiple positive influences on children. This study concludes with policy implications for the inclusive and progressive development of CDAs in Korea.     

中日“穿”、“脱”动词比较研究

正确使用动词是语言学习中重要的一环,本文以中、日二种文字为对象,选择“穿”和“脱”两个动词,比较其表达方式和使用方式,以加深学习者对日语该类动词的理解,并达到能够正确使用的目的.     

论章学诚以《随园诗话》为中心的袁枚批评

章学诚对袁枚《随园诗话》有专论文章,态度激烈,语言犀利,研究专家多斥章学诚为卫道。本文对章批《随园诗话》进行了简略的考察,认为章学诚以《随园诗话》为中心的对袁枚的批评可谓实事求是、有的放矢,既不是所谓简单的"卫道"也不是空言无依,网人入罪,而是袁枚在《随园诗话》及其著作和个人行为的具体揭示,也是章学诚文学观念的具体展现和"文不空言"的有为之言。     

充分发挥主体性：深入践行科学发展观的着力点

主体性是人的本质属性，其根本内涵表现为自主性、能动性和创造性。人的主体性是践行科学发展观的内源动力。主体性的充分发挥有助于把握和领会科学发展观的内涵，化解践行科学发展观过程中的矛盾、困境及掌控科学发展观赋予的科学发展方向。高扬人的主体精神，立足人的主体地位和充分发挥人的主体作用，是深入践行科学发展观人本核心、发展要务的关键所在，故此，充分发挥主体性理应成为践行科学发展观的着力点。     

“重陆轻海”与“通洋裕国”之海洋观刍议

明清两朝正处于世界性海洋历史发展的"千古变局"时代,但统治者沿袭传统模式,在立国思想上"重农抑商"、"重陆轻海",在国防战略上以"禁海"代替海防,禁海迁界、"守土防御",反映其海洋观念的淡薄;而东南沿海地方官员,尤其郑成功"通洋裕国"思想的提出和实践,显露出"以商立国",向海洋空间发展的意涵;传统时代"重陆轻海"与"通洋裕国"所反映的海洋观念,对国家民族发展的影响在某种程度上可以忽略不计,但大航海时代,海洋作为人类的第二生存空间影响到世界历史走向和发展格局时,"重陆轻海"观念所带来的深层影响会因此而改变国家和民族的命运。