Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

习近平幸福观及其对青年成长的意义

习近平幸福观是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要组成部分,其核心目标是让人民过上幸福美好的生活。习近平幸福观是以人民为中心、为人民谋幸福的幸福观,是以个人的、社会的和生态的全面进步为主旨的幸福观,是以新的发展理念解决中国发展不平衡不充分问题的幸福观,是借鉴各国人类文明、着眼于构建人类命运共同体的幸福观。弘扬习近平幸福观是实现中国梦的重要途径,对新时代青年成长具有积极意义。     

美国社区学院的办学特色及对我们的启示

发展高等职业教育对社会发展和经济建设具有重要意义和作用。文章介绍了美国社区学院的办学特色 ,从而为我国高等职业技术教育的办学提供借鉴     

生态时代与共同体

生态时代的一系列观念应该发展。作者论述了生态时代和共同体观念、生态时代观念的思想来源、生态时代与宗教等文化因素的关系、宽恕和恩惠 ,探讨了未来生态时代和社会共同体的基础。其主要的思想内容是强调未来的社会共同体形式应该与生态自然之间建立起相互有益的平衡 ,改造我们的文化以使生态时代的生活成为现实。     

Testing the Goodness of Fit of Parametric Regression Models with Random Toeplitz Forms

ABSTRACT: We introduce a class of Toeplitz‐band matrices for simple goodness of fit tests for parametric regression models. For a given length r of the band matrix the asymptotic optimal solution is derived. Asymptotic normality of the corresponding test statistic is established under a fixed and random design assumption as well as for linear and non‐linear models, respectively. This allows testing at any parametric assumption as well as the computation of confidence intervals for a quadratic measure of discrepancy between the parametric model and the true signal g;. Furthermore, the connection between testing the parametric goodness of fit and estimating the error variance is highlighted. As a by‐product we obtain a much simpler proof of a result of 34 ) concerning the optimality of an estimator for the variance. Our results unify and generalize recent results by 9 ) and 15 , 16 ) in several directions. Extensions to multivariate predictors and unbounded signals are discussed. A simulation study shows that a simple jacknife correction of the proposed test statistics leads to reasonable finite sample approximations.     

服务学习——发展自我、回馈社区的青年志愿服务策略

服务学习是国家、学校重塑21世纪青年公民角色的重要机制。本文通过阐述“服务学习”的缘起、涵义、特点和功能,提出“服务学习”与我国青年志愿服务结合的基本策略。     

新经济背景下区域空间结构转型研究

新经济背景下出现了两种截然不同又相互依存的空间形式:流动空间和地方空间。文章在揭示两种空间不同逻辑特征的基础上,提出了新空间条件下城市与区域进行空间组织的新模型。在新经济背景下,提高空间组织质量、调整与优化空间结构、促进地方空间成长是空间转型时期中国城市与区域发展的战略选择。     

‘You tell all the stories’: Using narrative to explore hierarchy within a Community of Practice1

Recent discussion of the Community of Practice (CofP) ( Davies 2005 ) has suggested that there are certain limitations to the approach with regard to how it accounts for internal hierarchy and community membership. Eckert and Wenger (2005: 588) have suggested that the only way to evaluate such criticism (and avoid building an inappropriately rigid conception of power into CofP theory) is to explore how hierarchies operate within CofPs. This paper offers such an exploration. Using data from a long‐term ethnographic study of a high school in the north‐west of England, this paper will use narrative analysis (drawing upon the work of Labov and Waletsky [1967] 1997 amongst others) to explore the interactional space in which speakers actively negotiate their personal and community behaviour. The analysis focuses upon the role individuals play as narrators of community practice and illustrates that status inequalities between individual CofP members do not necessarily result in inequitable allocation of control within the CofP.     

Maternal Emotional Styles and Child Social Adjustment: Assessment, Correlates, Outcomes and Goodness of Fit in Early Childhood

The goals of the present research were to develop a modified version of an existing self‐assessment questionnaire designed to measure parents’ emotional style and to examine how the aspects of child regulation may moderate the relation between the emotional styles and social outcomes in childhood. Participants in Study 1 were 140 mothers and children (73 males, 67 females, M_age=56.0 months). The mothers completed the Maternal Emotional Styles Questionnaire (MESQ) to assess maternal emotional styles, and the Child Behavior Vignettes to assess parental goals across two scenarios. Participants in Study 2 were 50 mothers who were interviewed regarding their emotional styles using the Meta‐emotion Interview, and who also completed the MESQ. In Study 3, 100 mothers and children (41 males, 59 females, M=58.0 months) participated. The mothers completed the MESQ and the Child Behavior Questionnaire to assess the children's emotion and behavior regulation. Teachers completed the Child Behavior Scale to measure the indices of preschool adjustment. Results from Studies 1 and 2 indicated a two‐factor scale for the MESQ, with good psychometric properties (including stability, convergent validity, and construct validity). Results from Study 3 indicated different patterns of associations between maternal emotional styles, and child adjustment for well‐regulated versus dysregulated children.     

Community and social capital in Slovenia—the impact of transition

The transition from socialism to capitalism has many impacts on the everyday life of the people of Slovenia. Amongst others it has an impact on their community ties and their choices regarding participation in public life. Community can enable or diminish the basic processes, such as solidarity, equal choices and opportunities, and respect for the differences that are needed for an inclusive society. This article researches such processes through the concept of social capital and provides some responses necessary for the political and professional planning of social policy and the practice of social services.