Evaluability assessment of a community development leisure program in Spain

This paper presents the results of an evaluability assessment (EA) conducted in Spain. EAs are assessments that minimize the uncertainty and risk inherent in a subsequent evaluation (e.g. an impact or results assessment) that may require excessive resources. We designed our own EA model by combining three theoretical approaches, with a holistic and pedagogic vision of the process and a flexible methodology to enable adaptation to different programs and contexts, thus fostering transferability. The EA was carried using a qualitative methodology: documentary analysis, seven semi-structured interviews with stakeholders, eight direct observation sessions and a check-list for politicians and experts. The outcome report helped promote organizational learning, provided the program with a logical and assessable theoretical model, detected its strengths and helped overcome the barriers to efficient assessment. Based on these achievements, an evaluation of the results was recommended, with repeated pretest-posttest measurements and an equivalent control group.     

Some practical advice on polynomial regression analysis from blocked response surface designs

It is often necessary to run response surface designs in blocks. In this paper the analysis of data from such experiments, using polynomial regression models, is discussed. The definition and estimation of pure error in blocked designs are considered. It is recommended that pure error is estimated by assuming additive block and treatment effects, as this is more consistent with designs without blocking. The recovery of inter-block information using REML analysis is discussed, although it is shown that it has very little impact if the design is nearly orthogonally blocked. Finally prediction from blocked designs is considered and it is shown that prediction of many quantities of interest is much simpler than prediction of the response itself.     

Identifying Nonproportional Covariates in the Cox Model

This paper addresses problem of testing whether an individual covariate in the Cox model has a proportional (i.e., time-constant) effect on the hazard. Two existing methods are considered: one is based on the component of the score process, and the other is a Neyman type smooth test. Simulations show that, when the model contains both proportional and nonproportional covariates, these methods are not reliable tools for discrimination. A simple yet effective solution is proposed based on smooth modeling of the effects of the covariates not in focus.     

A Generalized Poisson Distribution

Cumulative probabilities of a Poisson distribution can be written in terms of incomplete gamma function where the parameter of the gamma function is an integer. From this definition a new generalization of the Poisson distribution is obtained with two parameters. Asymptotic behavior of this distribution is shown to be normal. Some order properties of this distribution are also studied.     

A new Lindley distribution with location parameter

Abstract

The Lindley distribution has been used recently for modeling lifetime data and studying some stress-strength problems. In this paper, a new three-parameter Lindley distribution is introduced. The added location parameter offers more flexibility in fitting some real data against other common distributions. Several statistical and reliability properties are discussed. A simulation study has been carried to examine the MSE, bias, and coverage probability for the parameters. A real data set is used to illustrate the flexibility of the proposed distribution.     

Minimum anderson-darling estimation

The Anderson-Darling distance d(F_n ,F_0,) between the empirical distribution function F_n and the hypothesized model F₀ is minimized to produce estimators with good robustness and efficiency properties. In addition, the residual distance d_min = min₀d(F_n,F₀.) is availabe to assess model validity. The approximate distribution-free character of nd_min is studied using monte carlo methods.     

The rainbow test for lack of fit in regression

A test for lack of fit in regression is presented. Unlike other methods, this one doesn't require replicates or a prior estimate of variance. It can be used for linear or multiple regression, and would be easy to add to existing computer packages. It is based on comparing a fit over low leverage points with a fit over the entire set of data. Distribution theory results are pre¬sented, with examples of power. A discussion of its use for de¬tecting violations of other regression assumptions is also given.     

基于加权网随机区块模型的学术热点提取算法

学术热点在把握科学前沿、掌握学术动向、制订科研规划、学术作品评审等领域中有广泛的应用。针对学术热点发现中对文献市场选择性影响体现不足和热点内容结构表现单一的问题,本文提出了以学者选读文献为基础的学术热点提取模型和算法,设计了基于加权网模块社群挖掘算法的随机区组模型两阶段算法,用于发现带结构的学术热点,模拟和实证研究均表明算法在学术热点提取中取得良好效果。     

Calculating Bivariate Orthonormal Polynomials By Recurrence

Emerson gave recurrence formulae for the calculation of orthonormal polynomials for univariate discrete random variables. He claimed that as these were based on the Christoffel–Darboux recurrence relation they were more efficient than those based on the Gram–Schmidt method. This approach was generalised by Rayner and colleagues to arbitrary univariate random variables. The only constraint was that the expectations needed are well‐defined. Here the approach is extended to arbitrary bivariate random variables for which the expectations needed are well‐defined. The extension to multivariate random variables is clear.     

治理转型视角下中国城市社区自治的成长

随着中国城市社会发展的新变化以及由此引发的新问题,中国开始以社区自治为导向进行社会治理转型。中国城市社区自治取得了一定的制度绩效,不过其行政主导的路径却制约着社区自治的进一步成长。为推动社区自治进一步成长,需要在尊重中国国情的基础上,实现社区治理转型。社区治理转型要求立足于社区,构建现代社区治理结构。现代社区治理结构包括:完整的社区治理组织体系、合作共治的社区治理机制、制度化与多样性的社区参与渠道、需求导向的社区公共服务体系。