Estimation of Laspeyres Price Indexes Using the Prediction Approach for Finite Population Sampling

Estimators of chain and fixed-base Laspeyres price indexes are studied using the prediction approach to finite population sampling. The estimators include some that are based on those used in several U.S. government index programs and others derived from prediction models. Biases and variances of the estimators are studied for a case in which the reference period index weights are unknown for nonsample items. Under a model for a one-period price change in which items have common within-stratum means, unbiased estimators can be constructed, but under a more general regression model, special sample balance conditions are needed for unbiasedness of those estimators. The theory for the estimators of fixed-base indexes is illustrated in an empirical study using a population of items priced for the U.S. Consumer Price Index.     

Graphical Methods for Data Presentation: Full Scale Breaks,Dot Charts,and Multibased Logging

Experimentation with graphical methods for data presentation is important for improving graphical communication in science. Several methods—full scale breaks, dot charts, and multibased logging—are discussed. Full scale breaks are suggested as replacements for partial scale breaks, since partial breaks can fail to provide a forceful visual indication of a change in the scale. Dot charts show data that have labels and are replacements for bar charts; the new charts can be used in a wider variety of circumstances and allow more effective visual decoding of the quantitative information. Logarithms are powerful tools for data presentation; base 2 or base e is often more effective than the commonly used base 10.     

农户分化、财产价值认知与宅基地退出行为

基于长三角地区实地调查,分析了农户分化对宅基地退出意愿及受偿方式选择的影响路径,进一步探讨了财产价值认知的中介效应。结果发现:(1)农户分化对宅基地退出意愿既有直接影响也有间接影响,财产价值认知发挥中介作用,中介效应占比11.85％;(2)农户分化会显著负向影响农户对城镇房屋置换补偿方式的选择,显著正向影响农户的一次性货币补偿选择,中介效应占比分别为17.05％和12.70％;(3)相比较于远郊区,近郊区农户分化对宅基地财产价值认知和退出意愿都更加强烈,两个区域农户在受偿方式选择上存在一定差异。基于此,建议政府通过拓宽宅基地退出后农户的就业渠道、加强宅基地制度改革的政策宣传以及制定多元化的宅基地退出补偿机制等措施推进宅基地制度改革。     

Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research

Numerous studies and practical experiences with risk have demonstrated the importance of risk perceptions for people's behavior. In this narrative review, we describe and reflect upon some of the lines of research that we feel have been important in helping us understand the factors and processes that shape people's risk perceptions. In our review, we propose that much of the research on risk perceptions to date can be grouped according to three dominant perspectives and, thus, approaches to study design; they are: the characteristics of hazards, the characteristics of risk perceivers, and the application of heuristics to inform risk judgments. In making these distinctions, we also highlight what we see as outstanding challenges for researchers and practitioners. We also highlight a few new research questions that we feel warrant attention.     

How do researchers perceive research misbehaviors? A transcultural case study of Chinese and Flemish researchers

China has achieved a dramatic development in scientific research over the last few decades. However, just like many other countries, it has also seen a surge of scientific misconducts. With its expansion of international publications, retractions due to suspected research misconduct are also on the rise. A transcultural case study was conducted by investigating the perception of research misbehaviors by Chinese researchers compared to their Belgian Flemish colleagues. The study was designed to find out variation in research practices in different countries and to see how research was shaped and influenced by cultural contexts. An online questionnaire was sent to 3,236 researchers by e-mails and it received a response rate of 13.09%. They were asked to score 32 research misbehaviors on a 5-point scale. The findings suggested that compared to Flemish respondents, the Chinese had a significantly higher acceptance toward most research misbehaviors. To be more specific, the Chinese respondents felt less unacceptable toward behaviors violating such values as honesty, fairness, and verifiability than the Flemish, while their perceptions of behaviors that violated such values as responsibility, objectivity, and truth were not different compared to the Flemish. This case study implies that the Chinese research community is in an urgent need of training in responsible conduct of research and strong as well as sound guidelines for responsible research practices in place.     

Pre-arrest drug use and associated risk factors among incarcerated offenders in China

ABSTRACT

Past research has consistently reported a higher rate of drug use before arrest among incarcerated inmates than that of the general population. However, there is a lack of either qualitative or quantitative research on this topic under the Chinese setting. Drawing upon survey data collected from 1,518 inmates in a Chinese province, this study attempts to fill in the research gap by assessing the connection between risk factors associated with pre-arrest use. Roughly a quarter of all inmates in the sample had the experience of drug use before arrest. Regression analysis suggested that impulsivity, volatile temper, and perceived prevalence of drug use in neighborhood were significantly related to drug use among inmates. Two control variables include offense type and stable job, were also found to be significant predictors of drug use. Implications for research and policy were highlighted in the end.     

Media Exposure to Terrorism and Perception of Immigrants as a Threat: The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Psychophysiological Self-Regulation

To better understand how media exposure to terrorism-related images can lead to perceiving immigrants as more threatening, in the present study we manipulated participants’ exposure to media coverage of terrorist attacks and investigated how this may influence people's perception of Arab immigrants. Considering the important role of regulatory abilities when facing stressful events like terrorist attacks, we measured individual differences in both trait emotional intelligence and resting heart rate variability (HRV). Results showed that participants perceived Arab immigrants as more threatening in the media exposure condition than in the control condition. Importantly, there were moderating effects of both trait emotional intelligence and HRV. People with lower trait emotional intelligence or lower HRV at rest felt more threatened in the media exposure condition compared to the control condition, whereas this effect was not observed among participants with higher trait emotional intelligence or higher resting HRV. The present study highlights some of the complexities related to how media exposure to terrorism-related images influences people's reactions to, and evaluations of, an outgroup that is related to the perpetrators of the attacks.     

Toward an emergent Asian behavioural model of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness: a cross-nation comparative analysis of effective and ineffective managerial behaviour of private sector managers in India and South Korea

ABSTRACT

This Type 4 (emic-and-etic) indigenous cross-case/cross-nation comparative study compares the results of two Type 3 (emic-as-emic) indigenous replication studies of effective and ineffective managerial behaviour carried out within private companies in India and South Korea respectively. The method used was ‘realist qualitative content analysis’ involving inductive open and axial coding. Of the Indian findings 100% were found to be convergent in meaning with 94.43% of the equivalent South Korean findings. This has led to the identification of a two-factor emergent Asian behavioural model of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness comprised of 16 positive (effective) and 6 negative (ineffective) generic behavioural criteria. These criteria could be used in both countries to critically review and improve extant, or develop new, competency-based management/leadership development programmes. The research findings lend no support to claims that national culture has a major impact on managerial and leadership practices, styles, and effectiveness.     

Communicating with the Public About Marauding Terrorist Firearms Attacks: Results from a Survey Experiment on Factors Influencing Intention to “Run,Hide, Tell” in the United Kingdom and Denmark

Effective risk communication is an integral part of responding to terrorism, but until recently, there has been very little pre‐event communication in a European context to provide advice to the public on how to protect themselves during an attack. Following terrorist attacks involving mass shootings in Paris, France, in November 2015, the U.K. National Police Chiefs’ Council released a Stay Safe film and leaflet that advises the public to “run,” “hide,” and “tell” in the event of a firearms or weapons attack. However, other countries, including Denmark, do not provide preparedness information of this kind, in large part because of concern about scaring the public. In this survey experiment, 3,003 U.K. and Danish participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: no information, a leaflet intervention, and a film intervention to examine the impact of “Run, Hide, Tell” advice on perceptions about terrorism, the security services, and intended responses to a hypothetical terrorist firearms attack. Results demonstrate important benefits of pre‐event communication in relation to enhancing trust, encouraging protective health behaviors, and discouraging potentially dangerous actions. However, these findings also suggest that future communications should address perceived response costs and target specific problem behaviors. Cross‐national similarities in response suggest this advice is suitable for adaptation in other countries.     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.