An Assessment of Change in Risk Perception and Optimistic Bias for Hurricanes Among Gulf Coast Residents

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two‐year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow‐up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t‐tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross‐lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross‐lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.     

Awareness of low self-control: Theory and evidence from a homeless shelter

Survey measures of self-control provide a potential low-cost alternative to incentivized elicitation. However, asking respondents to introspect on their self-control problems may instead measure their awareness of them, especially in populations with low self-control. We illustrate this with the Ameriks, Caplin, Leahy, and Tyler (2007) survey, which captures self-control problems through the deviation between self-reported ideal and predicted behavior (Expected Deviation, ED). Previous empirical evidence from high income or highly educated populations correlates larger ED with worse outcomes. We theoretically show that the reverse will be true in settings where awareness can play a large role: when self-control is low and costly commitment devices are available. We empirically show that, for residents of a homeless shelter, ED is positively correlated to savings in shelter lockboxes, a costly commitment device. This correlation is stronger for those likely to experience more self-control problems: individuals with past addiction problems.     

Consumer trust repair: A critical literature review

Consumers are fundamental to organisational functioning and survival. Their loyalty, commitment, product acceptance and good long-term relationships with firms and brands are underpinned by their trust. Unfortunately, over the last decade or so, we have witnessed some of the more spectacular violations of consumer trust in the history of business. This has led to negative consequences, such as loss of competitive advantage, rage, lack of commitment and decrease in turnover. Consequently, study of trust repair has become an important theoretical concern for a growing number of trust scholars. This article reviews and synthesises existing theory and research on the topic. It first sketches general characteristics of the consumer trust repair literature, including its meta-theoretical underpinning. It then identifies specific strategies associated with consumer trust repair and synthesises them into five categories of trust repair strategies. In addition, this paper highlights theoretical processes that explain why/how trust repair strategies work. Third, the paper proposes six fruitful avenues for future research. This study contributes to the field of consumer trust repair research by critically reviewing and synthesising emerging theory and research on strategies associated with consumer trust repair, by showing why and how these strategies work and by identifying most fruitful research areas.     

Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk

Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species’ extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A–E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single‐event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics.     

儿童玩具礼品包装设计的研究与思考

现如今礼品类高端产品由于自身的品牌效应，得到了市场上极高的受欢迎指数，因其包装精美和视觉鲜明的因素，越是在国际市场环境低迷的时候，越容易抢占市场。在中国的儿童玩具礼品领域，不单单需要效仿国际流行的设计趋势，而且还要积极提升国内自主品牌影响力，这才是中国当今发展儿童玩具礼品包装产业，缩小与国际水平之间的差距，夺回本土市场继而进军国际市场的必由之路。具体分别从消费群体和包装设计本身两方面进行调查和分析研究。     

A life of fear: Sex workers and the threat of HIV in Uganda

Schoemaker J, Twikirize J. A life of fear: sex workers and the threat of HIV in Uganda The way individuals perceive their risk to certain threats influences their adoption of preventive behaviour. This study explored sex workers' perception of risk of HIV infection within the context of other serious threats. The study was carried out in Kampala, Uganda, using peer ethnography. Sex workers were well aware of their risk of HIV infection but this risk was eclipsed by other more immediate and frightening threats. Sex workers' willingness to gamble with HIV is explained by the fact that their existence is already very dangerous, and taking risks is an inherent part of their trade. Decriminalising sex work could make their lives somewhat safer, motivating them to better protect themselves, but this is unlikely to happen in Uganda. Attempting to enforce some coercive control mechanisms would not work, given the pervasive corruption in law enforcement and the judiciary, the institutions that would be responsible for implementing such control.     

Changes in the Factors Influencing Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power Generation in Japan Since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster

Public support for nuclear power generation has decreased in Japan since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011. This study examines how the factors influencing public acceptance of nuclear power changed after this event. The influence factors examined are perceived benefit, perceived risk, trust in the managing bodies, and pro‐environmental orientation (i.e., new ecological paradigm). This study is based on cross‐sectional data collected from two online nationwide surveys: one conducted in November 2009, before the nuclear accident, and the other in October 2011, after the accident. This study's target respondents were residents of Aomori, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures in the Tohoku region of Japan, as these areas were the epicenters of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the locations of nuclear power stations. After the accident, trust in the managing bodies was found to have a stronger influence on perceived risk, and pro‐environmental orientation was found to have a stronger influence on trust in the managing bodies; however, perceived benefit had a weaker positive influence on public acceptance. We also discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

Perception of Earthquake Risk in Taiwan: Effects of Gender and Past Earthquake Experience

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer‐assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two‐factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, “personal impact,” encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, “controllability,” encompassed a sense of efficacy of self‐protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly.     

Consumers’ credit card repayment decisions: The role of higher anchors and future repayment concern

We investigated two aspects of credit card repayment decisions: the extent to which the anchoring effect of minimum repayment information may be mitigated by information on alternative anchors, specifically repayments that would repay the balance in two years (Study 1) or nine months (Study 2); and the role of future repayment concern. In two experiments, three realistic credit card statements were presented with different outstanding balances. Participants, who were randomly allocated to one of four information conditions depending on supplementary information provided on the statements, stated how much they would repay that month. They were then asked about concerns they would have about repayment difficulties if they had a fixed consumer loan over three years. In Study 1 the alternative two-year repayment anchor had a negative effect on percent repayment, whereas in Study 2 the nine-month repayment anchor had a significant positive effect, especially for those with higher future repayment concern. Also, in both studies, future repayment concern had a direct inverse effect on repayment decisions which partially mediated the effect of disposable income. It is concluded that the addition to credit card statements of a table of cost and duration information for a range of repayment amounts may usefully support repayment decisions.     

Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers’ perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate‐related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate‐related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate‐related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response.