艺术文化的价值超越性

艺术、哲学和宗教是满足人的超越性精神需要的三种文化形态。但是艺术又有超越于宗教和哲学之上的自在自为性,表现为它不是认知宗教哲学理念的手段和途径,而是宗教哲学理念生成的母体,又呈现为人类的感性、理性"对话性共在"的一极,在时间之维上,超越于具体的时空背景和不同文化模式中的宗教、哲学文化的以及社会功利文化,而成为一自为自在的实体,具有永恒之价值。     

Do shared features of offered alternatives have an effect in consumer choice?

Are features shared by alternatives canceled, and is greater weight placed on the unique features in choosing among the alternatives provided? The present article evaluates the possible cancellation operation in terms of pricing and preferential choice and determines whether features shared by competing alternatives affected consumer decisions. This article suggests that features shared by alternatives may be canceled only when the shared features are irrelevant to the unique features and that shared features that are relevant do matter. Implications of the cancellation-and-focus model of choice and its relation to the equate-to-differentiate model of choice are discussed.     

Predictors of Holding Consumer and Mortgage Debt among Older Americans

Using data from the 2000 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), this study examined the probability of older Americans holding consumer and mortgage debt. The specific objectives of this study were to identify to what extent individuals aged 65 and over hold consumer or mortgage debt and to investigate factors that influence the probability of holding consumer or mortgage debt in old age. The results of logistic regression analysis indicated that older individuals who had larger households, had higher levels of education, were aged 65–74, were married, were Black, and were employed, were more likely to hold consumer or mortgage debt. This study concluded that holding one kind of debt is associated with probability of holding another kind of debt.     

音乐欣赏的心理感知及其培养

音乐欣赏的心理感知是主体欣赏音乐时的初级的感性的心理活动,它包括感觉和知觉两个心理环节。心理感知是欣赏音乐的基础,没有感知便没有音乐欣赏。要提高人们的音乐感知能力,一是使之掌握必须的音乐知识,二是经常参加音乐活动,特别是音乐欣赏活动以锻炼音乐感知力。     

The Roles of Group Membership, Beliefs, and Norms in Ecological Risk Perception

Variability in ecological risk perceptions was investigated by surveying members of four stakeholder groups commonly involved in environmental policy debates. Fifty-six individuals from government, industry, environmental, and general-public groups completed a risk-perception survey in which they evaluated 34 environmental hazards on 17 attributes and also evaluated the riskiness and acceptability of each hazard. In addition, participants reported their environmental beliefs and norms using Dunlap et al.'s revised New Ecological Paradigm Scale and modified versions of Schwartz's Awareness of Consequences and Personal Norms Scales. Group membership was predictive of participants' scores on the belief and norm scales. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged across participants) revealed the anticipated three oblique factors: ecological impacts, scientific understanding, and aesthetic impacts. Factor patterns were very similar for the four stakeholder groups. Factors from the aggregate analysis were predictive of individuals' riskiness judgments, but these relationships were moderated by participants' group membership, beliefs, and norms. Compared to members of other groups, members of the general public placed less emphasis on ecological impacts and more emphasis on the other two factors when judging the ecological riskiness of hazards. To our knowledge, these results represent the first formal tests of interactions between hazard characteristics and participant characteristics in determining riskiness judgments, and illustrate how traditional psychometric analyses can be successfully coupled with individual-difference measures to improve the understanding of risk perception.     

Changing your role models: Social learning and the Engel curve

By relating Engel curves and social learning, we explain the existence of differently shaped Engel curves—an interesting phenomenon in the theory of demand. A formal approach to cultural learning within a population of consumers accounts for some cognitive foundations of these demand patterns. We find that a changing influence of an individual's role models due to her increasing income, which entails new reference groups providing social identity, leads to the diffusion of new consumption behaviors. Thereby, the resulting Engel curves’ shape depends on the underlying learning dynamics. The approach contributes to an explanation of structural change and economic development.     

基于机器学习LSTM&US模型的消费者信心指数预测研究

消费者信心指数等宏观经济指标具有时间上的滞后效应和动态变化的多维性,不易精确预测。本文基于机器学习长短时间记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)神经网络模型,结合大数据技术挖掘消费者信心指数相关网络搜索数据(User Search,US),进而构建一种LSTM&US预测模型,并将其应用于对我国消费者信心指数的长期、中期与短期的预测研究,同时引入多个基准预测模型进行了对比分析。结果发现:引入网络搜索数据能够提高LSTM神经网络模型的预测性能与预测精度;LSTM&US预测模型具有较好的泛化能力,对不同期限的预测效果均较稳定,其预测性能与预测精度均优于其他六种基准预测模型(LSTM、SVR&US、RFR&US、BP&US、XGB&US和LGB&US);预测结果显示本文提出的LSTM&US预测模型具有一定的实用价值,该预测方法为消费者信心指数的预测与预判提供了一种新的研究思路,丰富了机器学习方法在宏观经济指标预测领域中的理论研究。     

The Impact of Perceived Flood Exposure on Flood‐Risk Perception: The Role of Distance

Natural hazards, such as major flood events, are occurring with increasing frequency and inflicting increasing levels of financial damages upon affected communities. The experience of such major flood events has brought about a significant change in attitudes to flood‐risk management, with a shift away from built engineering solutions alone towards a more multifaceted approach. Europe's experience with damaging flood episodes provided the impetus for the introduction of the European Floods Directive, requiring the establishment of flood‐risk management plans at the river‐basin scale. The effectiveness of such plans, focusing on prevention, protection, and preparedness, is dependent on adequate flood awareness and preparedness, and this is related to perception of flood risk. This is an important factor in the design and assessment of flood‐risk management. Whilst there is a modern body of literature exploring flood perception issues, there have been few examples that explore its spatial manifestations. Previous literature has examined perceived and real distance to a hazard source (such as a river, nuclear facility, landfill, or incinerator, etc.), whereas this article advances the literature by including an objectively assessed measure of distance to a perceived flood zone, using a cognitive mapping methodology. The article finds that distance to the perceived flood zone (perceived flood exposure) is a crucial factor in determining flood‐risk perception, both the cognitive and affective components. Furthermore, we find an interesting phenomenon of misperception among respondents. The article concludes by discussing the implications for flood‐risk management.     

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

There is a paucity of research examining public response to the cumulative effects of multiple related extreme events over time. We investigated the separate and combined effects of frequency and trajectory of terrorist attacks. A scenario simulation of a series of gas station bombings in Southern California was developed to evaluate respondents' affect, risk perception, and intended avoidance behavior using a 3 (frequency; low vs. medium vs. high) by 3 (trajectory; increasing vs. constant vs. decreasing) factorial design. For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three‐week period. A total of 275 respondents were included in the analysis. Results from analysis of covariances (ANCOVAs) indicate that trajectory of the sequential attacks (increasing or decreasing in frequency) predicts negative affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior. In contrast, frequency predicts neither negative affect, positive affect, risk perception, nor intended avoidance behavior. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) further indicate that the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention is mediated by risk perception and the effect of trajectory on risk perception is partially mediated by negative affect. In addition, both ANCOVAs and SEM model results suggest that (1) females experience less positive affect and perceive more risk than males, (2) respondents with higher income perceive more risk, and (3) younger respondents are more likely to modify their behavior to avoid the risk of future attacks.     

Board Diving Regulations in Public Swimming Pools and Risk of Injury

Public session access to diving boards is one of the stepping stones for those wishing to develop their skills in the sport of diving. The extent to which certain dive forms are considered risky (forward/backward/rotations) and therefore not permitted is a matter for local pool managers. In Study 1, 20 public pools with diving facilities responded to a U.K. survey concerning their diving regulation policy and related injury incidence in the previous year. More restrictive regulation of dive forms was not associated with a decrease in injuries (r_s[42] = –0.20, p = 0.93). In Study 2, diving risk perception and attitudes towards regulation were compared between experienced club divers (N = 22) and nondivers (N = 22). Risk was perceived to be lower for those with experience, and these people favored less regulation. The findings are interpreted in terms of a risk thermostat model, where for complex physical performance activities such as diving, individuals may exercise caution in proportion to their ability and previous experience of success and failure related to the activity. Though intuitively appealing, restrictive regulation of public pool diving may be ineffective in practice because risk is not simplistically associated with dive forms, and divers are able to respond flexibly to risk by exercising caution where appropriate.