山西省有机农业生产体系的构建

发展有机农业可使现代化农业带来的一系列环境问题得以改善,可为山西经济的发展培养持续产业,可提升山西农业发展的水平;山西省具有发展有机农业的工作基础;山西省有机农业生产体系构建的总体思路是与国际接轨,严格按照国际标准设定,并与“十一五”期间政府财政对农业的扶持相结合,出台相应的政策体系,确保目标的实现。     

美国中东政策调整与中、美、阿关系互动

迫于国际形势和国内外舆论压力，布什政府从2007年开始调整中东政策，把遏制伊朗作为政策重点。为此，美国重新扮演了巴以和平调解人的角色，主动缓和与阿拉伯国家关系。美阿关系的发展对正在积极参与中东事务的中国具有重要意义。未来中东仍是美国对外战略关注的重点，“美国因素”在中阿关系中会更加频繁，三者互动将更为密切。中国对中东问题的积极立场及对中东事务的主动参与，对于推动中、美、阿关系的良性互动将产生深远影响。     

西方就业与失业问题的理论政策及其借鉴

本文分析了西方就业与失业理论政策的产生与发展。在这些理论与政策的指导下 ,从 2 0世纪30年代开始 ,西方各国政府把促进就业作为经济和社会政策的主要目标 ,并根据经济发展中失业的特点 ,运用多种政策手段 ,有针对性地对付各种类型的失业 ,以降低失业率 ,实现充分就业。我国在二元经济结构转换和经济体制改革过程中 ,出现了严峻的就业压力。应借鉴各国经验 ,根据我国国情 ,制定积极的就业政策 ,促进就业。     

The Enchantment of Agriculture: State Decentering and Irrigated Rice Production in Bali

This article explores state involvement in the ‘enchanted’ aspects of irrigated rice production in Bali, Indonesia. Modernising states invariably forward what Max Weber called the rationalisation and disenchantment of the world. In irrigation management, the Indonesian colonial and postcolonial states operated staunchly on this model. ‘Enchanted’ elements of Balinese rice production involving temples and rituals were assumed irrelevant and sidelined. Recently, however, bursts of state-funded construction of irrigation temples and shrines suggest a surprising shift. The post-Suharto decentralised state appears to be supporting the enchantment of irrigated agriculture. This article deals with the relationship between legislation under the decentralised state and ritual building activities in Balinese irrigation associations (subak). We examine how contemporary farmers view the new emphasis on ‘ritual technology’. Does it constitute decentralised support of the farmers' world, of local priorities and variance, or a new homogenising project?     

Ranking terrorists in networks: A sensitivity analysis of Al Qaeda's 9/11 attack

All over the world, intelligence services are collecting data concerning possible terrorist threats. This information is usually transformed into network structures in which the nodes represent the individuals in the data set and the links possible connections between these individuals. Unfortunately, it is nearly impossible to keep track of all individuals in the resulting complex network. Therefore, Lindelauf et al. (2013) introduced a methodology that ranks terrorists in a network. The rankings that result from this methodology can be used as a decision support system to efficiently allocate the scarce surveillance means of intelligence agencies. Moreover, usage of these rankings can improve the quality of surveillance which can in turn lead to prevention of attacks or destabilization of the networks under surveillance.The methodology introduced by Lindelauf et al. (2013) is based on a game theoretic centrality measure, which is innovative in the sense that it takes into account not only the structure of the network but also individual and coalitional characteristics of the members of the network. In this paper we elaborate on this methodology by introducing a new game theoretic centrality measure that better takes into account the operational strength of connected subnetworks.Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis on the rankings derived from this new centrality measure for the case of Al Qaeda's 9/11 attack. In this sensitivity analysis we consider firstly the possible additional information available about members of the network, secondly, variations in relational strength and, finally, the absence or presence of a small percentage of links in the network. We also introduce a case specific method to compare the different rankings that result from the sensitivity analysis and show that the new centrality measure is robust to small changes in the data.     

美国决策层对1969年中苏边界冲突的判断与对策

1969年的中苏边界冲突对美国尼克松政府的对华缓和政策具有重要的推动作用．但从新近公布的解密档案和冷战史研究来看,边界冲突并不必然会导致美中接近;只是当苏联在边界冲突中的表现引起了尼克松政府对其战略意图怀疑时,美国政府才加快了启动对华缓和的进程．     

墨西哥革命制度党的兴衰及给我们的启示

墨西哥革命制度党曾经是墨西哥的第一大党,执政达71年之久,在2000年的选举中为反对党国家行动党和绿色生态党组成的变革联盟所取代。一个执政党,其地位的稳固取决于它的社会基础,而能否拥有广泛的社会基础则取决于它动员和控制社会的能力。墨西哥革命制度党兴衰成败的经验表明,作为一个执政党,只有具备形成和增强意识形态凝聚力的能力,具备进行制度创新、较好地实施政策调控以及协调和聚合社会多种利益的能力,才能使自己立于不败之地。     

中国碳交易政策扩散的影响因素、路径差异与减碳效果研究——基于省域数据的实证分析

碳交易市场的建设有助于实现全球碳平衡,而碳交易政策扩散对于促进中国碳交易市场的持续健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在我国碳交易市场建设不断深化的情境下,有必要识别省域碳交易政策扩散的多维影响要素,检验不同扩散路径下的政策效果差异,总结政策扩散经验。文章基于省域面板数据,首先运用事件史分析法,通过Cox比例风险模型发现,能源政策的落实、地方政府的综合服务能力和社会创新能力是碳交易政策扩散的关键驱动要素;其次,利用合成控制法进一步检验,发现主动扩散地区的减排效果弱于试点扩散地区,试点扩散地区对主动扩散地区的激励和带动作用有限,试点成果尚未得到有效学习和复制。为此,在我国统一碳交易市场的建设过程中,应强化中央统筹协调与地方相关举措之间的协同配合,依托有力的政策驱动激发我国碳交易制度活力,提升碳减排效果,形成路径清晰、梯度有序的政策扩散机制,以稳步实现2030“碳达峰”、2060“碳中和”的目标。     

Resources,homophily, and dependence: Organizational attributes and asymmetric ties in human service networks

This paper examines the effects of organizational attributes on power/dependence relations in interorganizational dyads. Exchange and homophily theories are discussed as two alternative perspectives on the processes that give rise to such effects. The data pertain to interagency ties in three community-based networks of youth service agencies and are analyzed via a new strategy of linear modeling dyadic relations. The results of the analysis suggest that size, administrative position, and justice system connections condition the extent to which an agency initiates and receives ties of influence, assistance, and support. Moreover, these relations are more frequent between agencies with similar treatment ideologies and client racial makeup. Finally, size and justice system access are found to reduce agency dependence on a network's administrative core. In the course of the discussion, a number of related issues and findings are discussed.     

法国对德国安全关系的历史透视

文章从法国视角审视法、德两国在第二次世界大战结束后安全关系发展的历史,着重论述了法国在其中的地位及其在维护自身利益、稳固全欧安全、建设欧洲安全防务一体化道路上所作的努力,宏观地回顾了法、德两国在第二次世界大战后对自身安全问题的根本选择,以及围绕此问题所展开的合作与斗争。