阿拉伯国家政治和社会动荡的前因及后果

阿拉伯世界的政治社会动荡有着复杂的内外原因,动荡可能开启阿拉伯世界寻求新发展道路的历史时代,但由乱到治尚须时日.动荡对中东格局和美国主导中东事务能力产生广泛影响,但美国主导地位并未根本动摇.     

Why does class matter? Policy attitudes,mechanisms, and the case of the Nordic countries

In most democracies, classes tend to vary with respect to an array of attitudes and behaviours, and differences are large within a number of European polities. What mechanisms lie behind these differences? Do they relate primarily to individuals’ material interests, as assumed by traditional class theories, or instead, to socialization and self-selection factors? This paper seeks to extend theory and research through an analysis of mechanisms behind class differences in policy attitudes. Our focus is on the Nordic countries, where class differences are extensive and well-documented in past scholarship. We take advantage of high-quality European Social Survey data for Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Analyzing three policy arenas and the 9-category European Socio-economic Classification scheme (ESeC), we find evidence that class-related factors help to explain cleavages in attitudes. Comparisons with the more detailed, 103-category International Standard Classification of Occupation scheme (ISCO) suggest that these factors explain less “micro-class” occupational variation. Results shed new light on mechanisms behind class differences, and the empirical foundations of established class theories. These and other implications are discussed in the conclusion.     

论北京“城中村”改造——兼述流动人口聚居区合作治理

2009年以来北京开始进行大规模的城中村改造。这场由政府主导的乡村社会变革,对城乡结合部流动人口聚居区产生了重要影响。本文在概括北京城中村改造模式的基础上,对城中村改造的作用给予了积极评价,同时指出城中村改造周边地区可能面临更深的发展困境,应通过合作治理寻求解决城乡结合部流动人口聚居区社会问题的治理之道。目前北京已经具备了实现流动人口聚居区合作治理的基本条件,可以在市区政府是主导、乡村组织是枢纽、社区成员是核心、社会团体和社会单位(企业)是支撑、专业NGO是助推器的合作治理框架下,以生活设施改造和社会管理体制创新为突破口,统筹兼顾尚待城市化地区的协调发展。     

财政扶持政策对西部地区农民参加新农村合作医疗的影响——基于自然实验的研究途径

本文将对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的财政扶持政策的实施作为一个自然实验,应用微观经济计量方法分析了财政扶持政策对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的影响。研究结果表明,与2004年相比,2006年西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的概率增加了96.46%,说明针对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的财政扶持政策作用效果显著。     

埃及“7·3”事件后美国对埃援助政策研究

埃及被认为是美国在中东地区和阿拉伯世界最坚定的盟友。美国自1979年埃及与以色列签署和平协议以来,每年向埃及提供大量的军事与经济援助。2013年7月3日,埃及民选总统穆罕默德·穆尔西被埃及军队废黜。根据联邦法律,美国暂停对埃及的部分援助。本文从“7·3”事件后美国对埃及援助的变化及其特点、影响援助变化的主要原因进行分析,展现美国对埃及援助政策中的复杂利益和战略考量,根据对历史与现实的分析,预测美国今后对埃援助政策的走势。     

Empowered and self-managing users in methadone treatment?

Empowerment is a keyword in treatment. Users should have the means and possibilities to influence their treatment and become self-managing. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork in a Danish methadone treatment project, we find that the practices of users and staff are often not carried out in accordance with governmental intentions. We identify a gap between the official notions of treatment and practices. We analyse the notions and practices of empowerment by applying two analytical perspectives. First, we apply a constructionist perspective in which empowerment is analysed as wanting to set users ‘free’ but also as ways to govern. We elaborate the analysis by applying a more practice-oriented focus. Drawing on this perspective, we analyse the ways in which staff and users constantly produce, construct and negotiate institutional practices that differ from the governmental intentions for treatment.     

A LOWER BOUND FOR THE SINGLE-LEVEL DYNAMIC HORIZON LOT-SIZING PROBLEM

Conventional production planning methods assume the existence of a medium- or longrange demand horizon. However, demand usually is known over a much shorter range; scheduling decisions must be made within this “decision window,” which rolls forward in time. This paper presents a new lower bound for lot-sizing heuristics in a rolling-horizon framework and compares it to the well-known Wagner-Whitin bound. The new bound indicates heuristic schedules that have costs close to the optimum. Rolling-horizon schedule costs are compared to corresponding static-horizon schedule costs (assuming the whole horizon is known in advance), using the ratio of decision-window size to the natural order cycle as a parameter. For values below unity, the rolling-horizon policy is significantly more costly. For values above one, the two policies have similar costs and actually converge as the parameter value increases.     

社会政策视角下的流浪儿童救助保护

我国政府历来重视对流浪儿童的救助保护,也取得了相当的成绩,但该领域的政策体系尚存缺陷与不足,难以满足社会发展的需要。立足现实,从社会政策的视角,探究流浪儿童救助保护政策的现状,并提出有关对策建议,以期建立健全该领域的社会政策框架。     

医务社会工作者：他们的工作与专业训练

英美医务社会工作起源于医院社会工作,北京协和医院社会工作开创亚太地区和中国医院社会工作的先河。蒲爱德是中国医院社会工作服务模式的奠基人。她首次系统阐述开展医院社会工作的必要性、重要性和紧迫性,科学总结协和医院社会土作服务模式,明确提出医院社会工作者的配置原则、职责范围、服务方法和专业训练途径,为当代中国医院社会工作人才队伍建设提供宝贵历史经验,具有重要的现实意义、理论意义和政策意义。     

Reconsidering the philanthropic foundation minimum payout policy under a “new normal”

With the increasing salience of foundations in many policy fields, and recent changes in market conditions, policies towards foundations designed decades ago seem outdated. In this article we suggest reassessing foundation payout minimums. To examine the impact of payout rates on grantmaking foundations lifespan and performance under “new normal” economics, we simulate multiple foundations lifecycles using Monte Carlo methods in diverse capital market conditions, with varied investment and payout strategies.We find that while under past market regime perpetuity seems to be a given, under more probable future scenarios, foundations might face increasingly early mortality and endowment depletion, limiting their potential impact. Furthermore, lower payout rates allow for higher lifetime grantmaking, higher mean annual grantmaking, and lower giving volatility. Accordingly, we suggest a tiered payout policy, in line with foundations’ missions and proper financial planning.