中俄社会经济体制改革政策的共性与差异分析

中俄作为从传统计划经济向市场经济转轨的大国,两国都面临着调整中央与地方利益关系和国内区域发展差距问题,制定国家层面的宏观调控政策是中央政府的重要任务。中国诸多长期战略政策,如“西部大开发战略”、“东北振兴战略”和“中部崛起战略”等更多关注的是经济目标,而俄联邦改革政策的首要任务是维护国家完整性这一政治目标。中国经济的管理模式倾向于发挥地方积极性的分权模式,而俄罗斯在经济发展模式上倾向于中央权威下的集权管理模式。     

我国通货膨胀预期的微观基础研究

 通货膨胀预期的微观基础是一个重要的理论问题和实践问题,但是至今为止相关的研究还非常少。本文采用中国人民银行的《居民储蓄问卷调查系统》数据库,从经济主体的经济特征和人口统计特征两方面详细研究哪些因素会显著影响居民通胀预期。研究结果表明：人们对未来家庭经济状况的信心、风险厌恶程度和金融参与及熟悉度、家庭所处阶层、人们对现阶段经济运行状况的满意程度以及最近家庭所处的经济环境都是形成异质性通胀预期的重要原因。研究结果对于制定更加科学的货币政策和加强通胀预期管理具有重要的参考价值。     

中国财政政策通货膨胀效应的实证研究

 全球金融危机使各国财政赤字激增,通胀问题日益严重,通胀治理成为各国关注的焦点。与货币数量理论相比,新近发展的价格水平决定的财政理论（FTPL）对于解释通货膨胀的成因和提出通胀治理建议更有优势。本文基于FTPL视角,选取我国1982—2011年度数据,应用状态空间模型识别政策在价格决定中的作用区制,结果表明1982—1996为M区制,1997—2011为F区制;再选取1997—2011季度数据,应用SVAR法结合货币政策研究F区制下财政政策对通货膨胀的短期和长期动态效应,实证研究表明财政政策比货币政策对通胀的影响更大,而且财政政策对通货膨胀有长期效应,结合中国经济的实际情况,我们认为货币政策不是导致近年来通胀的主要成因,抑制通胀要依靠财政政策,应实行相机选择的财政政策来实现物价稳定和经济可持续发展的宏观调控目标。     

“后危机”时代中国多区域支付政策的CGE模型、模拟及分析

 通过构建一个后危机背景下的中国多区域支付政策模型及模拟系统来进行相关政策模拟。该模型基于多区域经济学理论,应用可计算一般均衡技术与方法,数据上采用8区域8部门的社会核算矩阵。模型考虑了人口分组与流动,资本流动和区域均衡机制等,使劳动力和资本可以跨区域跨部门流动,并可通过区域变量可以调控和测度区域差距。最后利用该模型针对3种中国区域支付政策方案（单区域和多区域）进行了模拟。模拟发现：当地方政府增加对本地居民的支付后城市居民的终生累积效用会得到增长,发达地区的农村居民效用会有小幅下降,而欠发达地区的农村居民效用会有小幅增长;当地城镇就业岗位会得到增加,但是农村就业会有所减少;同时中央政府源于该区域的财政收入会增长,而地方政府收入由于转移支出而下降。     

Regional rail planning; a study of the importance of ‘steering’ and ‘pragmatism’ in stakeholder networks

This paper investigates the significance of networks in regional rail planning and how these networks can help regional planners meet the needs of local stakeholders. The research question focuses on the identification of the relative importance of three core factors in regional planning – communicative discourse, steering and environment. A case study of the Highlands and Islands region of Scotland was studied, with qualitative data analysed by triangulation through semi-structured interviews and social network analysis (SNA).     

Selecting a Portfolio of Technologies: An Application of Decision Analysis

The Department of Energy is faced with the critical and complex decision of selecting technologies for waste site remediation. This research focuses on developing a decision support tool which assists the decision maker to find an optimal portfolio. A portfolio consists of selecting the appropriate processes for a remediation site and, subsequently, selecting a technology for each process so that the decision maker's objectives are achieved. The measures supporting the objectives are risk, life-cycle cost, and time required for remediation. The model uses exponential attribute utility functions with an additive objective function. The model provides the decision maker with estimates of the cost and time distributions, and their associated utility. Cumulative frequency distributions illustrate the dominance of technology choices and the variance in the results. The model permits sensitivity analysis in the form of rainbow and tornado diagrams to display the effects of changes in the values of the input variables. Overall, the model provides a generic technology selection tool that can be used to make better informed decisions and may be easily manipulated to reflect changes in the remediation process.     

On the Issuing Policies for Perishable Items such as Red Blood Cells and Platelets in Blood Service

Red blood cells (RBCs) and platelets are examples of perishable items with a fixed shelf life. Recent studies show that transfusing fresh RBCs may lead to an improvement of patient outcomes. In addition, to better manage their inventory, hospitals prefer to receive fresh RBCs and platelets. Therefore, as well as minimizing outdates and shortages, reducing the average age of issue is a key performance criterion for blood banks. The issuing policy in a perishable inventory system has a substantial impact on the age of issue and outdate and shortage rates. Although several studies have compared the last in first out (LIFO) and the first in first out (FIFO) policies for perishable products, only a few studies have considered the situation of blood banks where replenishment is not controllable. In this study, we examine various issuing policies for a perishable inventory system with uncontrollable replenishment, and outline a modified FIFO policy. Our proposed modified FIFO policy partitions the inventory into two parts such that the first part holds the items with age less than a threshold. It then applies the FIFO policy in each part and the LIFO policy between the parts. We present two approximation techniques to estimate the average age of issue, the average time between successive outdates and the average time between successive shortages of the modified FIFO policy. Our analysis shows in several cases that where the objective function is a single economic function, or it is formulated as a multiobjective model, the modified FIFO policy outperforms the FIFO and LIFO policies.     

A validation of a computer-assisted randomized response survey to estimate the prevalence of fraud in social security

Summary.  In the Netherlands, there is a research tradition that measures fraud against regulations by interviewing eligible individuals using a survey. In these studies the sensitive questions about fraud are posed by using a randomized response method. The paper describes the results of a Dutch study into the consequences of replacing home interviews by trained interviewers with Internet-delivered interviews in a survey on fraud in the area of disability benefits. Both surveys used computer-assisted self-interviews with randomized response questions. This study has three goals: first to present the research tradition that makes use of randomized response, second to compare the results of home interviews and the Internet survey and finally to introduce an adapted weighted logistic regression method to test the relationship between the probability of fraud and explanatory variables. The results show that there are no systematic differences between modes of interview, either for estimates of the prevalence of fraud or for the identification of associated variables. These outcomes result in the conclusion that the Internet survey is a useful and cost-effective instrument for measuring fraud in a population, and that it is unlikely that replacing home interviews with the Internet survey will result in a significant break with tradition.     

The New Social Policy in Britain

This paper starts from the proposition that approaches to crime and penal policy in contemporary Britain are of a piece with approaches to social policy across a number of fronts. "The New Social Policy" is examined in terms of "the stakeholder idea", its implications for how people are meant to behave, and the distance between this and socio-economic realities. The paper then explores various sectors of stakeholder social policy in their new order of importance—employment and training, education, health care, social care, housing, social security—before commenting on policies in respect of crime and crime prevention, in the light of the foregoing observations and with particular reference to the "lock-'em-up" tendency. The paper concludes that stakeholdership is no recipe for crime prevention.     

略论地方教育行政部门在课程改革中的作用

地方教育行政部门是课程改革政策执行中不可或缺的一环,它通过采取组织与宣传、协调与支持以及评估和督导等措施,有效地保证课程改革的顺利实施。