Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002).     

浅论我国会计诚信危机的成因与对策

由于我国市场经济正处于建立和完善之中,与之相适应的信用体系尚未建立,使近年来的会计诚信问题成为被关注的焦点。本文从会计诚信危机的表现、危害入手,分析会计诚信危机形成的原因,并提出相应的对策。     

民营中小企业信用担保体系研究

民营中小企业信用担保体系可归纳出四大设计原理：功能原理、经营原理、正选原理和博弈原理。针对信用担保体系的问题，提出其健全与发展的建议是：清晰定位担保对象；科学择优担保运作方式：完善资金补偿机制；健全风险分散机制；正确发挥政府作用；促进社会信用体系建设；加强监管体系；建立社会化中介服务体系；加强金保合作，形成共生机制。     

花都区中小企业信用担保体系的模式选择与对策

信用担保体系制度对缓解中小企业融资约束的主要作用日益受到人们的关注。本文根据花都区构建中小企业信用担保体系的需求,通过对世界上一些国家中小企业信用担保实践的比较,具体分析了各种运行模式的利弊得失,提出了建立花都中小企业信用担体系应遵循的原则和七项对策建议。     

中美房贷险风险保障机制的比较研究

针对当前房贷险颓势引致运行不畅现象,应用比较分析方法,借鉴美国房贷险风险保障机制的先进经验,并结合我国的国情,找出并剖析影响房贷险正常运行的诸多因素,提出建立有效房贷险风险保障机制的解决方案与政策建议。     

Pricing and momentum of syndicated credit in Europe

We investigate the determinants of syndicated loan prices for European borrowers, spanning the entire period of credit expansion and crisis. We construct a large data base consisting of 2102 rated syndicated loan deals from 1990 to 2008 in twenty three countries and ten economic sectors. We investigate the effects on the spread paid over the risk free rate of three major groups of factors: loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and characteristics of country of the borrower, using both qualitative and quantitative variables in a hedonic regression. The results show that all three groups are significant joint determinants of prices of syndicated credit. Our results confirm the existing literature but also provide for first time results stemming form the risk characteristics of the borrower and the country of the borrower. It is shown that distance-to-default as well as aggregate risk associated with country of the borrower are of great concern to the lenders and hence significantly affect the pricing of syndicated loans. Furthermore, we report that financial institutions and public utilities are able to negotiate for cheaper loans, but this result is reversed when financing is for acquisition purposes. Overall, risk, liquidity, solvency and sustainable performance by both the borrower and its domicile country are key determinants of syndicated loan prices.     

新时期地方政府诚信问题分析

诚信是社会主义核心价值观的重要内容,是发展市场经济和构建和谐社会的基石。地方政府诚信处于社会诚信体系的核心地位,对经济健康发展与社会和谐进步具有决定性影响。新的历史时期,地方政府诚信缺失问题突出,对区域发展、社会和谐和政府权威等构成了危害和挑战。本文在分析地方政府诚信现状的基础上,剖析了地方政府失信的成因,有针对性地提出了加强地方政府诚信建设的对策建议。     

欧洲学分转换与积累系统:发展历程、运行机制及启示

创立于1989年的欧洲学分转换与积累系统经历了萌芽、确立、推广和完善四个阶段,从仅具有转换单一功能发展到具有转换与积累双重功能,从只为高等教育服务拓展到为终身教育服务,在欧盟教育发展中扮演了重要角色。分析欧洲学分转换与积累系统的运行机制,剖析其关键要素、运行流程、证明文件等,对于中国区域学分银行的建设具有如下启示:加强法律政策保障、着眼组织保障、强化校际合作、开发系统平台和完善核心要素。     

Continuous Time Wishart Process for Stochastic Risk

Risks are usually represented and measured by volatility–covolatility matrices. Wishart processes are models for a dynamic analysis of multivariate risk and describe the evolution of stochastic volatility–covolatility matrices, constrained to be symmetric positive definite. The autoregressive Wishart process (WAR) is the multivariate extension of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross (CIR) process introduced for scalar stochastic volatility. As a CIR process it allows for closed-form solutions for a number of financial problems, such as term structure of T-bonds and corporate bonds, derivative pricing in a multivariate stochastic volatility model, and the structural model for credit risk. Moreover, the Wishart dynamics are very flexible and are serious competitors for less structural multivariate ARCH models.     

Dynamic Savings Decisions in Agricultural Environments With Incomplete Markets

We develop a methodology for examining savings behavior in rural areas of developing countries that explicitly incorporates the sequential decision process in agriculture. The approach is used to examine the relative importance of alternative forms of savings in the presence and absence of formal financial intermediaries. Our results, based on stage-specific panel data from Pakistan, provide evidence that the presence of financial intermediaries importantly influences the use of formal savings and transfers for income smoothing. We also find that there are significant biases in evaluations of the savings-income relationship that are inattentive to the within-year dynamics of agricultural production.