基于多源数据融合的个人信用评分研究

随着信息技术的发展,数据来源越来越多,一方面可以更加精准、科学地刻画个人信用状况,但另一方面,由于数据来源多、结构复杂等问题,对传统的征信技术带来了挑战。本文提出了基于多源数据融合的个人信用模型,可以同时对多个数据集进行建模和变量选择,同时考虑了数据集间的相似性和异质性。通过模拟实验发现,本文所提出的整合模型在变量选择和分类效果方面都具有明显的优势。最后,将整合模型应用于城市和农村两个数据集的个人信用评分中。     

国内外社会信用奖惩机制对上海的启示

上海社会信用奖惩机制进一步完善的方向:要完善"一处守信,处处受益;一处失信,处处受制"的社会诚信体系;要更新和完善信用立法及相关管理制度;要大力推动公共联合征信平台的建设、完善和推广应用;要积极培育和壮大信用服务业。     

Mastering ‘Lady Credit’

This article politicizes current understandings of financial crises. It is argued that financial discourse, and specifically the discourse that locates financial crises in the realm of madness and delusion, is founded upon a distinctively masculine conception of agency. This argument is made by looking at early eighteenth-century debates concerning the emergence of credit and paper money. The article examines Daniel Defoe's satirical personification, Lady Credit. Lady Credit embodies all the irrational, inconstant and effeminate aspects that had to be purged from financial discourse before it was able to gain respectability as a rational, disinterested and scientific sphere of action. Lady Credit is not unlike ancient goddess, Fortuna, who ruled capriciously over the affairs of men. The financial discourse under examination implies that it is in times of crisis that financial man loses self-control and is prevented from seeing economic reality by the delusions that Lady Credit generates in him. Through the virile mastering of Lady Credit, it is implied, the smooth and neutral workings of the financial sphere are guaranteed. The article contends that this inherently gendered manner of understanding financial crises informs debates on financial crisis today, as can be exemplified by the public discussion on the recent crisis in Asia.     

Structural Strains during the Process of Social Change

伴随着制度变迁进行的结构性调整与创新,带来了不同利益群体之间的矛盾与冲 突,这种矛盾与冲突引发的许多问题可归结为“结构紧张”产生的张力所致,“失 范”状态就是一种典型的结构性问题。以调查数据为依据,分析、检验结构紧张与失 范之间的关系,发现社会地位结构、组织结构、角色结构、权力地位结构、收入水平 与教育水平结构上的差异与分化确实导致了失范感受的产生。诸如个体的失范、不满 意度、相对剥夺感、地位不一致等负面感受很大程度正是缘于客观的结构分化快于制 度整合而引起的失衡与紧张。

关键词: 制度变迁?结构紧张?失范

The structural readjustments and innovations accompanying institutional change have brought about contradictions and conflicts among different interest groups. The many problems thus touched off can be attributed to the tensions resulting from “structural strain,” with “anomie” a typical structural problem. We have used survey data as a basis for analyzing and examining the relationship between structural strain and anomie. We find that differences and differentiation in social status, organization, role and power structures and in income and educational level structures have indeed led to the birth of a sense of anomie. To a large extent, such negative feelings as individual anomie, dissatisfaction, a sense of relative deprivation, status inconsistency, etc., are nothing other than the result of the imbalances and tensions brought about by an objective structural differentiation that is proceeding faster than institutional integration.     

The Structure of the Chinese Banking System and Credit Access Problems for SMEs

This paper examines the structure and the main characteristics of the Chinese banking industry. In particular, the paper analyses the problematic aspects of credit relations of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The SMEs are facing several problems in accessing the bank loans market, dominated by the political and contractual weight of state-owned enterprises. However, some recent reforms have improved the situation, a fundamental condition for additional positive results. Nevertheless, further and more pervasive modernization efforts are needed to consolidate these results and to develop the relationships between banks and SMEs.

关联方增信与资产证券化信用风险溢价——基于底层资产风险的统计分析

本文着眼于企业资产支持证券(ABS)市场的信用风险溢价,探讨关联方增信的效果。研究表明,采用关联方增信的ABS风险溢价较高;当同一主体先前发行的ABS评级上调时,新发行ABS的风险溢价会因为采用关联方增信而升高。本文进一步探究了产生上述现象的原因,一方面,关联方增信使得集团内部风险集聚;另一方面,企业的道德风险使得原ABS的评级上调成为反映新ABS底层资产质量变差的负面信号,从而影响投资者的定价判断。本研究揭示了关联方增信可能存在的道德风险问题。通过分析ABS丰富的底层资产统计特征,本文发现集团风险集聚导致ABS的底层资产质量下降,进而提高了企业的融资成本。本文建议监管机构可以通过适当限制关联方增信或加强监管的方式保障我国企业资产证券化市场的健康持续发展。     

The Distributive Impact of Reforms in Credit Enforcement: Evidence From Indian Debt Recovery Tribunals

It is generally presumed that stronger legal enforcement of lender rights increases credit access for all borrowers because it expands the set of incentive compatible loan contracts. This result relies on an assumption that the supply of credit is infinitely elastic. In contrast, with inelastic supply, stronger enforcement generates general equilibrium effects that may reduce credit access for small borrowers and expand it for wealthy borrowers. In a firm‐level panel, we find evidence that an Indian judicial reform that increased banks' ability to recover nonperforming loans had such an adverse distributive impact.     

民营中小企业信用担保体系研究

民营中小企业信用担保体系可归纳出四大设计原理：功能原理、经营原理、正选原理和博弈原理。针对信用担保体系的问题,提出其健全与发展的建议是：清晰定位担保对象;科学择优担保运作方式：完善资金补偿机制;健全风险分散机制;正确发挥政府作用;促进社会信用体系建设;加强监管体系;建立社会化中介服务体系;加强金保合作,形成共生机制。     

递阶双因素模型估计信用组合一致性风险

当信用组合内资产个数较少时,基于Gordy提出的粒度调节方法计算的组合风险量度VaR将严重被低估,从而高估一致性风险量度预期短缺ES。本文利用Taylor展开式改进粒度调节方法,提高估计ES的准确性;并且假设行业因素是宏观经济因素的线性函数,由此保证了组合不变性的条件,从而扩展单因素模型为递阶双因素模型,提高相关性估计准确性,解决了单因素模型高估经济资本的问题。模拟结果显示递阶双因素模型的优越性,特别是组合内资产规模较小时,改进的效果更明显。     

加强青少年的网络道德教育

青少年网络道德失范行为时有发生,且表现形式多种多样;青少年网络道德失范与网络的特点、青少年自身的生理心理特点、所受的学校和家庭教育以及自身的道德素养等因素都有关系;加强青少年网络道德教育已是刻不容缓的大事,而且最根本的一点是通过多种方式不断提高青少年的道德自律能力.