On robustness of the Shiryaev–Roberts change-point detection procedure under parameter misspecification in the post-change distribution

The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-versus-“false-positive”-risk manner. When optimality is understood either in the generalized Bayesian sense or as defined in Shiryaev's multi-cyclic setup, the so-called Shiryaev–Roberts (SR) detection procedure is known to be the “best one can do”, provided, however, that the observations’ pre- and post-change distributions are both fully specified. We consider a more realistic setup, viz. one where the post-change distribution is assumed known only up to a parameter, so that the latter may be misspecified. The question of interest is the sensitivity (or robustness) of the otherwise “best” SR procedure with respect to a possible misspecification of the post-change distribution parameter. To answer this question, we provide a case study where, in a specific Gaussian scenario, we allow the SR procedure to be “out of tune” in the way of the post-change distribution parameter, and numerically assess the effect of the “mistuning” on Shiryaev's (multi-cyclic) Stationary Average Detection Delay delivered by the SR procedure. The comprehensive quantitative robustness characterization of the SR procedure obtained in the study can be used to develop the respective theory as well as to provide a rational for practical design of the SR procedure. The overall qualitative conclusion of the study is an expected one: the SR procedure is less (more) robust for less (more) contrast changes and for lower (higher) levels of the false alarm risk.     

The structure and vulnerability of a drug trafficking collaboration network

Prior research has established that collaboration networks exhibit heavy-tailed degree distributions, assortative degree mixing, and large clustering coefficients. Using court record data, we assess these properties in a collaboration network among heroin traffickers. Consistent with prior research, we find an exponential degree distribution and strong local clustering. However, the traffickers mix dissortatively by degree rather than assortatively. Using a graph sampling method, we show that a consequence of dissortative mixing is that targeted vertex removals have a greater impact on the connectivity and cohesion of the trafficking network. We also note the importance of degree mixing for characterizing and identifying topological weaknesses.     

近年来国内协商民主理论研究转向的综述

中国学者对西方协商民主理论的认识越来越深化.由最初对协商民主理论规范的认识,概念的分析解读以及乐观性的接受,经过了一个阶段的深化锤炼,国内学者开始转向其实践形态和在实践运行过程的研究.同时开始越来越认识到在实施中理论和实践操作的困境     

抽象行政行为听证程序之适用

目前我国听证制度的适用范围较狭窄 ,特别是在中国加入 WTO后 ,更进一步暴露出其狭窄的听证范围与世贸规则的不协调。因此 ,有必要将听证程序的适用扩展至抽象行政行为 ,并对其适用的原则和范围予以具体规定。文章对抽象行政行为之听证程序的立法原则及其听证范围应包含的内容作出分析与论证 ,试图通过初步的探讨提出有参考价值的建议。     

网络犯罪对刑事侦查的挑战与应对

网络犯罪不仅包括以网络为对象的犯罪,也包括以网络为工具的犯罪。由于网络犯罪具有犯罪主体、手段的专业化、犯罪客体的多样化、犯罪行为的隐蔽化的特点,导致犯罪行为扩散迅速、身份易藏、证据有限、毁证容易、适用法律困难等问题,对刑事侦查带来了极大的挑战。这种挑战主要体现在管辖权、证据制度和侦查措施三个方面。我国应对网络犯罪的侦查制度较为落后,应当从专门侦查机构、管辖制度、电子数据收集制度和技术侦查措施四个方面来加以完善。     

论沉默权的价值

沉默权是刑事诉讼中被追诉之人的一项重要的诉讼权利。其价值体现在 :它可以增强辩方的防御能力 ,是形式上保持控辩双方对抗格局的重要因素 ,有利于维护刑事诉讼构造平衡 ;有助于刑事诉讼公正、科学、文明地进行 ;也有助于发现事实真相。沉默权不仅有其程序性价值 ,更重要的是它体现了对人格尊严的极大尊重 ,沉默权制度是刑事司法中最重要的人权保障机制。     

论行政居间裁决案件的司法救济

行政机关的居间裁决是特殊的具体行政行为,是行政机关以行政主体的身份,依照法律对民事纠纷行使职权作出的行政裁决。如果当事人对此类裁决不服,如何寻求有效的司法救济,在实践中陷入困境。当事人诉讼是日本颇具特色的诉讼制度,它以法律关系的另一方当事人为被告,同时行政厅要受法院裁判的约束,具有民事诉讼的特征而不强烈地具有行政诉讼的特色。该制度值得我们思考和借鉴,在我国原有的诉讼模式的基础之上应该根据实践需要建立一种新的诉讼类型———当事人诉讼。     

加强校外实习基地建设 促进实践教学质量提高

校外实习在职业技术院校教学中具有重要的地位和作用。分别从校外实习基地建设的必要性,进行校外实习就业基地建设的几个原则,如何加强与校外实习就业基地的沟通和联系,校外实习基地发展展望4个方面对校外实习基地建设进行了理性思考。对高职院校校外实习基地的建设和开发有借鉴意义。     

个人信息犯罪的刑法规制--以内地和澳门为比较

刑法将严重侵犯个人信息的行为予以犯罪化,表明了个人信息包含的人身特性、经济价值和社会属性的重要性。中国内地通过两部刑法修正案确立和优化了个人信息犯罪立法,澳门因深受葡萄牙立法影响而具有独特法律品格。《澳门个人资料保护法》作为澳门规制个人信息犯罪的主要依据,为澳门个人信息安全提供了专门性和体系性的法律保护。通过比较研究,内地可在立法模式、规制方式和追诉机制方面借鉴澳门的有益立法经验。     

法律程序的形式性与实质性--以对程序理论的批判和批判理论的程序化为线索

本文通过对1990年代初期之后欧美政法思潮的重大转折以及中国法制改革经验的综合性考察,进一步探讨了在价值观日益多元化的背景下法律程序对于公共选择以及社会秩序正统化的深远意义。针对国内部分学者对强调程序性正义的疑虑,作者指出：现实中滥用形式和程序要件的弊端其实正是缺乏正当程序观念的结果,为此我们的确有必要对照公开、对等、透明以及公平等程序价值来检验和完善现行的程序规范。