Evidence for hedge fund predictability from a multivariate Student's t full-factor GARCH model

Extending previous work on hedge fund return predictability, this paper introduces the idea of modelling the conditional distribution of hedge fund returns using Student's t full-factor multivariate GARCH models. This class of models takes into account the stylized facts of hedge fund return series, that is, heteroskedasticity, fat tails and deviations from normality. For the proposed class of multivariate predictive regression models, we derive analytic expressions for the score and the Hessian matrix, which can be used within classical and Bayesian inferential procedures to estimate the model parameters, as well as to compare different predictive regression models. We propose a Bayesian approach to model comparison which provides posterior probabilities for various predictive models that can be used for model averaging. Our empirical application indicates that accounting for fat tails and time-varying covariances/correlations provides a more appropriate modelling approach of the underlying dynamics of financial series and improves our ability to predict hedge fund returns.     

浅谈洁净手术部在医院基建工程中的特殊需求

随着现代医学的发展,洁净手术部成为各手术学科建设与发展的重要前提与支柱,对原有手术室功能进行改造势在必行。为了实现医院洁净手术部向信息化、智能化、集约化发展,从洁净手术部的选址、功能等方面介绍了当前省内部分二级以上医疗单位洁净手术室建设的新进展,总结近年来在洁净手术室规划、建设过程中的经验,为现代医院基建工程管理提供借鉴,保障医院医疗、教学、科研工作的顺利开展。     

跨文化的解码与建构--论美国汉学家史景迁的孔子研究

美国著名汉学家史景迁(Jonathan D. Spence)从文化认知、文化比较的研究视域出发，对孔子进行了跨文化解读与传播。在史景迁“去偶像化”的观照方式下，孔子被解码、建构为具备鲜明个性特质的人文主义者及令人尊重的教育者形象。同时，史景迁致力于厘清西方一般认知中对孔子及其思想的诸多误读，并努力唤起西方受众对孔子当代意义的认同。     

Improved approaches to interval estimation of effective doses for a logistic dose-response curve

Asymptotic confidence (delta) intervals and intervals based upon the use of Fieller's theorem are alternative methods for constructing intervals for the <$>\gamma<$>% effective doses (ED<$>_\gamma<$>). Sitter and Wu (1993) provided a comparison of the two approaches for the ED<$>_{50}<$>, for the case in which a logistic dose response curve is assumed. They showed that the Fieller intervals are generally superior. In this paper, we introduce two new families of intervals, both of which include the delta and Fieller intervals as special cases. In addition we consider interval estimation of the ED<$>_{90}<$> as well as the ED<$>_{50}<$>. We provide a comparison of the various methods for the problem of constructing a confidence interval for the ED<$>_\gamma<$>.     

南方谈话理论品质的三个维度——兼论其对共同富裕的启示

当前改革已进入攻坚阶段,重温邓小平南方谈话意义重大。应以宏观的视野对南方谈话进行整体性观照,从实践理性、辩证理性、价值理性三个维度准确把握其理论品质,这对当前实现共同富裕目标有着积极的启示意义。     

从农村基层民主制度运行成本看当前农民政治冷漠的根本原因

我国农村基层民主近年来在广度和深度上都得到了较大发展。但是,在这种发展的表象背后,却隐藏着农民政治冷漠的客观真象。对此,既有的"复合因果论"具有一定解释力,但也有值得补遗之处。农村基层民主制度运行成本与运行绩效的不对称、农民个体承担的基层民主制度运行成本过高才是导致当前农民政治冷漠的根本原因。     

The Complete Exact Null Distribution of Spearman's Rho for n = 12(1)18

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Rho, is a widely used nonparametric measure of association. Complete, exact tables of the null distribution are calculated and presented for n = 12 to 18.     

Women's Access to Property: A Comparative Study on Islamic and Kemalist Women in Turkey

This article uses a comparative approach to discuss women's access to property using evidence collected from field research conducted on two distinct communities of Istanbul: one secular and one Islamic. The two groups of women possess distinctly different views of the world and how it is organized. This is particularly the case concerning gender where secular women put forth a view rooted in the sameness of the genders where the Islamic women were clear in their commitment to the idea of difference. These attitudes toward the equality and difference of the genders structures the relations of these women to property and the process of inheritance.     

Measuring Children's Experience of Their Right to Participate in School and Community: A Rights‐Based Approach

This paper discusses the development of a children's rights‐based measure of participation and the findings from its use in a survey of 10‐ to 11‐year‐old children (n = 3773). The measure, which was developed in collaboration with a group of children, had a high reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.89). Findings suggest that children's positive experience of their participation rights is higher in school than in community, and higher for girls compared to boys. It is argued that involving children in the ‘measurement’ of their own lives has the potential to generate more authentic data on children's lived experiences.