Non uniform exponential bounds on normal approximation by Stein’s method and monotone size bias couplings

It is known that the normal approximation is applicable for sums of non negative random variables, W, with the commonly employed couplings. In this work, we use the Stein’s method to obtain a general theorem of non uniform exponential bound on normal approximation base on monotone size bias couplings of W. Applications of the main result to give the bound on normal approximation for binomial random variable, the number of bulbs on at the terminal time in the lightbulb process, and the number of m runs are also provided.     

习近平关于人民健康重要论述的思想内涵与实践价值研究

人民健康是人民福祉之本、强国建设之基。习近平关于人民健康重要论述基于“健康中国”战略和全面建成小康社会的 时代背景下，针对突发公共卫生事件应急管理能力滞后以及传染病等问题，系统阐述了习近平把人民群众生命安全和身体健 康放在第一位；以人民为中心，以健康为根本的思想；大卫生、大健康新理念；人民健康是最大的生产力；人民健康是全面的健 康以及习近平关于新冠肺炎防控的思想内涵。通过研究习近平关于人民健康重要论述的实践价值，有利于推进国家治理体系 和治理能力现代化，更好地应对国内出现的重大疫情，实现“健康中国2030”战略，维护国家安宁与国际稳定，更好地体现中国 防疫经验的世界意义。     

A court file analysis of child protection cases: What do children say?

Children's participation in legal proceedings affecting them personally has been gaining importance. So far, a primary research concern has been how children experience their participation in court proceedings. However, little is known about the child's voice itself: Are children able to clearly express their wishes, and if so, what do they say in child protection cases? In this study, we extracted information about children's statements from court file data of 220 child protection cases in Germany. We found 182 children were asked about their wishes. The majority of the statements found came either from reports of the guardians ad litem or from judicial records of the child hearings. Using content analysis, three main aspects of the statements were extracted: wishes concerning main place of residence, wishes about whom to have or not contact with, and children granting decision‐making authority to someone else. Children's main focus was on their parents, but others (e.g., relatives and foster care providers) were also mentioned. Intercoder agreement was substantial. Making sure that child hearings are as informative as possible is in the child's best interest. Therefore, the categories developed herein might help professionals to ask questions more precisely relevant to the child.     

CEOs’ temporal focus,firm strategic change,and performance: Insights from a paradox perspective

Recent research indicates that CEOs’ temporal focus (the degree to which individuals attend to the past, present, and future) is a critical predictor for strategic outcomes. Building on paradox theory and the attention-based view, we examine the implications of CEOs’ past and future focus for strategic change. Results from polynomial regression analysis reveal that CEOs who cognitively embrace both the past and the future at the same time engage more in strategic change. In addition, our results reveal that the positive strategic change−firm performance relationship is enhanced when CEOs’ past focus is high, whereas CEOs’ future focus mitigates the translation of strategic change into firm performance (when their past focus is low at the same time). In addition, supplemental analyses indicate that the impact of CEOs’ temporal focus turns out differently in stable and dynamic environments. Our study thus extends the literature on both individual’s temporal focus and strategic change.     

侗族芦笙文化论

因侗族芦笙习俗而形成的侗族芦笙文化，为侗族民众所喜闻乐见。侗族芦笙文化是一种礼仪文化，不尚武，只追求亲和。和侗族其他文化一样，其精髓就是追求和谐的社会价值观。可以说侗族芦笙文化是最能体现东方文明的文化。对推动人类社会的文明与进步，促进人类团结、和谐、友好相处具有极强的现实意义。     

Assumptions,conjectures, and other miracles: The application of evaluative thinking to theory of change models in community development

Unexamined and unjustified assumptions are the Achilles’ heel of development programs. In this paper, we describe an evaluation capacity building (ECB) approach designed to help community development practitioners work more effectively with assumptions through the intentional infusion of evaluative thinking (ET) into the program planning, monitoring, and evaluation process. We focus specifically on one component of our ET promotion approach involving the creation and analysis of theory of change (ToC) models. We describe our recent efforts to pilot this ET ECB approach with Catholic Relief Services (CRS) in Ethiopia and Zambia. The use of ToC models, plus the addition of ET, is a way to encourage individual and organizational learning and adaptive management that supports more reflective and responsive programming.     

元前文献图籍所载黄河河源

有关黄河河源的概念，古代各种史学、地理、以及宗教文献都有相关记载。早期文献中提出的重源潜流的概念，也为塑造河源空间概念留下了发挥余地。及至唐朝，各种类书、笔记、野史关于位于境外的河源的著述沿用了上述文献中已有的地理知识，并融入了佛教世界观的空间概念以及唐代实地考察的纪录，逐渐构成了河源这一多元化的空间想象。本文探讨了不同知识框架对唐代河源记载的影响，以及在几幅现存宋代地图上所反映出的相关影响。这类文献资料有助于我们理解中古地理知识的深化与演变，以及后代地图上展示河源的更丰富的地图表现形式。     

卓越教师培养的有效探索——我国台湾地区“卓越师资培育奖学金计划”述评及启示

当前国际教师教育改革转为以卓越为取向的发展趋势。我国台湾地区的"少子化"问题引发了该区域师资供需失调的矛盾，同时多元化的师资培育模式又导致教师素质不断下降。在此背景下，2006年我国台湾地区推行"卓越师资培育奖学金计划"。该计划旨在提升师资培育过程质量、加强绩效管理、建立完善的奖励与竞争机制，通过实现优胜劣汰来保障实施该计划的各院校取得成效。经过试行与正式实施，该计划的成效整体良好。"卓越师资培育奖学金计划"对新时代卓越教师培养具有一定的借鉴意义，如以奖励与竞争的方式优化卓越师资结构、建立卓越教师培养计划退场机制、改革高校教师教育培养模式，等等。     

基于神经网络的测井评价油层污染研究

利用测井资料,在剖析传统的测井评价油(气)层污染方法的基础上,介绍了利用BP神经网络这一现代数理统计新技术来实现测井多参数评定油气层污染程度的方法和技巧;以华北二连油田实际资料为例,建立了测井判释油气层污染的数学物理模型,并进行了模拟预测。结果表明:该法简便可行,对污染评价参数预测精度较高,对污染程度评价合理准确,可作为油(气)层污