Determining Differences in Expert Judgment: Implications for Knowledge Acquisition and Validation*

In knowledge acquisition, it is often desirable to aggregate the judgments of multiple experts into a single system. In some cases this takes the form of averaging the judgments of those experts. In these situations it is desirable to determine if the experts have different views of the world before their individual judgments are aggregated. In validation, multiple experts often are employed to compare the performance of expert systems and other human actors. Often those judgments are then averaged to establish performance quality of the expert system. An important part of the comparison process should be determining if the experts have a similar view of the world. If the experts do not have similar views, their evaluations of performance may differ, resulting in a meaningless average performance measure. Alternatively, if all the validating experts do have similar views of the world then the validation process may result in paradigm myopia.     

面子理论及其局限性新探 ——基于盎格鲁中心主义思想的研究

布朗和列文森的面子理论一直被视为研究礼貌现象的经典理论,在语言学界影响极大;但面子理论的提出是基于英语语料,研究的也仅仅是英语文化的礼貌现象,因此该理论深受盎格鲁文化价值影响,带有浓厚的盎格鲁中心主义思想,不能全面解释其他文化中的礼貌现象。回顾了面子理论的精髓思想及其贡献,在学术界对该理论的批判性研究基础上,从跨文化交际及盎格鲁中心主义的角度,进一步探讨面子理论的局限性,并为该理论研究的发展思路和方向提出诸多新的思考。     

邓小平的文化品格与文化价值

邓小平在长期的革命、建设和改革实践中,留下了珍贵的文化遗产.与时俱进、开拓进取的创新意识;开放包容、博采众长的开明态度;热爱祖国、振兴中华的高尚情怀;诚信为本、厚德载物的道德理念;崇尚科学、重视人才的理性精神--这就是他富有个性的文化品格.当前,学习和研究邓小平伟大的文化品格,对于弘扬民族精神、实现中华民族的伟大复兴,具有十分重要的意义.     

The Design of a Knowledge-Based Decision Support System to Support the Information Analyst in Determining Requirements

Decision support system (DSS) researchers and designers continue to look for unstructured organizational tasks where there is a critical need for intelligent computer-based support. One such decision task is information requirements determination. Requirements determination is recognized as the most crucial phase of the systems development life cycle. Unfortunately, most methodologies and CASE tools focus only on how to specify the requirements once they are determined. There is very little computer support for the process of determining requirements. This paper discusses the conceptual design and development of a knowledge-based DSS to support information analysts in the critical decision task of determining requirements for the design of effective information systems. The expert modeling support system has the expertise to assist the analyst in studying the organization as a whole and in modeling the system under study in the context of the overall organization's goals and needs. The focus of the paper is on the problems associated with building the knowledge base component of the intelligent decision support system. A prototype implementation of the system is described.     

Stochastic and Intransitive Behavior in a State-Preference Model of Asset Choice*

Most models of investor behavior assume a time-state independent utility function and result in a deterministic solution where a given set of inputs uniquely specifies the decision. In contrast, a state preference model using a time-state dependent utility function is derived in this paper. The model allows the investment choice decision to be analyzed in a game theoretic context. The general solution is a mixed strategy which allows for a probabilistic interpretation of the decision. The approach presented in this paper can accommodate anomalies such as intransitivity of preference and satisficing as rational behavior. An example of a possible implementation is given along with interpretations of the outcomes.     

论邓小平后勤思想的形成历程

邓小平后勤思想作为一个理论体系,不仅具有丰富的内涵,且有一个明晰的形成历程,邓小平在汲取古代后勤思想和毛泽东后勤思想的基础上,对后勤工作的地位和作用有自己独特的理解和认识,为后勤工作提供了不竭的理论源泉。     

Narrative persuasion,identification, attitudes,and trustworthiness in crisis communication

The purpose of this study is to test the effects of narratives in crisis communication. This research assesses how organizations benefit from using stories in their media responses, relative to sharing nonnarrative information. The theory of crisis response narratives (Heath, 2004) holds that ethical narratives are effective because they enhance trustworthiness, attitudes toward the spokesperson, and identification with the spokesperson. Normative crisis communication theory exhorts disclosing truthful information rather than spinning. In an online experiment, participants (N = 365) watched a news interview in which a scandalized company’s spokesperson responded to a journalist’s questions with (a) ethical narratives, (b) unethical (spin) narratives, or (c) nonnarrative information. Multiple mediator modeling assessed identification with the spokesperson, attitudes toward the spokesperson, and perceived trustworthiness of the spokesperson. Results indicate ethical narratives are more effective than unethical narratives. However, nonnarrative information most effectively enhances trustworthiness and bolsters identification.     

场域转换与文化反哺:青年群体与变迁社会的信息互动

以布迪厄场域理论来考察不同社会形态下青年与社会的信息互动实践,发现青年与社会的信息互动在具有“位置-权力”关系的场域中展开,“位置-权力”关系通过信息资本的占有而建构。社会形态随技术变革更迭,青年与社会信息互动的场域逻辑与运行机制发生相应转变。从农耕社会到工业社会再到信息社会,青年与社会的互动场域变得多样,并且发生着从家庭向学校再向网络空间的偏向性转换,场域运行的推动力量也从时间权威向结构权威再向认同权威转换。可以说,青年与社会信息互动场域的转换,正是人类在不同社会形态下对“用时间消灭空间”的信息传播时空观的生产实践与社会表征。     

西方儿童虐待成因的发展生态模型理论研究述评

发展生态模型是西方儿童虐待成因研究的重要理论框架,但国内对此缺少系统性介绍。该理论认为,儿童虐待产生自互动个体与嵌套生态系统层面间的交互影响,它主要以生态系统理论为理论基础,并以“生态整合模型”和“生态交互模型”为代表性理论模型。该理论具有重要的方法论意义,它可促使研究者突破单因素变量研究的窠臼,并转向多因素共构视角去理解儿童虐待成因;同时,也为儿童虐待治理实践提供了多因素和多层次的系统干预视角。该理论的出现丰富了儿童虐待研究者的理论想象力,可为我国家庭、学校等场域的儿童虐待和儿童保护研究和干预提供启示。     

A Path Analytic Model of a Theory of Quality Management Underlying the Deming Management Method: Preliminary Empirical Findings*

Despite the impact that Deming and his 14 Points have had on the practice of quality management, empirical support for the effectiveness of the Deming Management Method has not advanced beyond the presentation of anecdotal, case-study evidence. In part, this is because theory to guide the conduct of empirical research has not been available. Only recently has such a theory of quality management to describe and explain the effectiveness of the Deming Management Method been articulated in the literature. This paper continues the journey of theory development; it reports the results of an exploratory empirical analysis of an articulated theory of quality management underlying the Deming Management Method. The constructs in the proposed theory are operationalized using measurement statements developed by the World-Class Manufacturing research project team at the University of Minnesota and Iowa State University. Path analysis is applied to the World-Class Manufacturing project data to explore the empirical strength of relationships advanced in the theory. The path analytic results provide support for several of the proposed relationships in the theory, and more importantly, suggest a number of new relationships which have not heretofore been proposed.