A new class of INAR(1) model for count time series

The present work proposes a new integer valued autoregressive model with Poisson marginal distribution based on the mixing Pegram and dependent Bernoulli thinning operators. Properties of the model are discussed. We consider several methods for estimating the unknown parameters of the model. Also, the classical and Bayesian approaches are used for forecasting. Simulations are performed for the performance of these estimators and forecasting methods. Finally, the analysis of two real data has been presented for illustrative purposes.     

Finite time ruin probability and structural density properties in the presence of dependence in insurance risk model

In the present paper, we consider the classical compound Poisson risk model with dependence between claim sizes and claim inter-arrival time. We attempt to analyze the approximation of finite time ruin probability. The finite time ruin probabilities are plotted for fixed threshold value associated to the claim inter-arrival time and also for fixed dependence parameter in Nelsen (2006) copula separately. Additionally, a general form for joint density of the interclaim times and claim sizes is considered. With respect to the classical Gerber-Shiu's (1998) function, first some structural density properties of dependent collective risk model is obtained. Then the ladder height probability density function of claim sizes is computed and the dependency structure investigated for Erlang interclaim time. As the application, some dependent models of the interclaim times and claim sizes are studied.     

Nonparametric Forecasting in Time Series—A Comparative Study

The problem of predicting a future value of a time series is considered in this article. If the series follows a stationary Markov process, this can be done by nonparametric estimation of the autoregression function. Two forecasting algorithms are introduced. They only differ in the nonparametric kernel-type estimator used: the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and the local linear estimator. There are three major issues in the implementation of these algorithms: selection of the autoregressor variables, smoothing parameter selection, and computing prediction intervals. These have been tackled using recent techniques borrowed from the nonparametric regression estimation literature under dependence. The performance of these nonparametric algorithms has been studied by applying them to a collection of 43 well-known time series. Their results have been compared to those obtained using classical Box-Jenkins methods. Finally, the practical behavior of the methods is also illustrated by a detailed analysis of two data sets.     

Analysis of incomplete data in the presence of dependent competing risks from Marshall–Olkin bivariate Weibull distribution under progressive hybrid censoring

This article considers the statistical analysis of dependent competing risks model with incomplete data under Type-I progressive hybrid censored condition using a Marshall–Olkin bivariate Weibull distribution. Based on the expectation maximum algorithm, maximum likelihood estimators for the unknown parameters are obtained, and the missing information principle is used to obtain the observed information matrix. As the maximum likelihood approach may fail when the available information is insufficient, Bayesian approach incorporated with auxiliary variables is developed for estimating the parameters of the model, and Monte Carlo method is employed to construct the highest posterior density credible intervals. The proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example under different progressive censoring schemes and masking probabilities. Finally, a real data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

Nonparametric Bayesian Analysis of Competing Risks Problem with Masked Data

Bayesian analysis of system failure data under a competing-failure framework is considered when the failure causes have not been exactly identified but narrowed down to a subset of all potential failure causes. The usual assumption of independence of failure causes is relaxed. We obtain the posterior distribution of the joint survival function, assuming a Dirichlet process prior, and derive the limiting posterior distribution. We show that the posterior estimate of the reliability of the series system of interest in practice is consistent. A numerical example shows that our approach is feasible.     

Interval Estimation for the Sortino Ratio and the Omega Ratio

In this article, asymptotic confidence intervals (CIs) for the Sortino and Omega ratios are proposed and analyzed. First, the CIs are derived under the assumption of temporal independence and identical distribution of returns. Later they are obtained assuming that the returns process is strictly stationary and α-mixing of a certain size. In order to evaluate the minimum sample size for a good coverage accuracy of the asymptotic CIs, a simulation study is performed. It is obtained that the minimum sample sizes are very high, especially under the more realistic assumption of not-iid returns.     

Bayesian Inference in Dependent Right Censoring

In this article, we consider dependent right censoring when the lifetime and censoring variables have a Marshall–Olkin bivariate exponential distribution and obtain MLEs, MMEs and UMVUEs of the unknown parameters. The Bayes estimators as well as the Posterior Regret Gamma Minimax (PRGM) estimators of the parameters of interest under the SEL function are also obtained and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to compare these estimators.     

On Complete Convergence for Arrays of Dependent Random Variables

A complete convergence theorem for an array of rowwise independent random variables was established by Sung et al. (2005 Sung , S. H. , Volodin , A. I. , Hu , T.-C. ( 2005 ). More on complete convergence for arrays . Statist. Probab. Lett. 71 : 303 – 311 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This result has been generalized and extended by Kruglov et al. (2006 Kruglov , V. M. , Volodin , A. I. , Hu , T.-C. ( 2006 ). On complete convergence for arrays . Statist. Probab. Lett. 76 : 1631 – 1640 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Chen et al. (2007 Chen , P. , Hu , T.-C. , Liu , X. , Volodin , A. ( 2007 ). On complete convergence for arrays of rowwise negatively associated random variables . Theor. Probab. Appl. 52 : 393 – 397 . [Google Scholar]). In this article, we extend the results of Sung et al. (2005 Sung , S. H. , Volodin , A. I. , Hu , T.-C. ( 2005 ). More on complete convergence for arrays . Statist. Probab. Lett. 71 : 303 – 311 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Kruglov et al. (2006 Kruglov , V. M. , Volodin , A. I. , Hu , T.-C. ( 2006 ). On complete convergence for arrays . Statist. Probab. Lett. 76 : 1631 – 1640 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Chen et al. (2007 Chen , P. , Hu , T.-C. , Liu , X. , Volodin , A. ( 2007 ). On complete convergence for arrays of rowwise negatively associated random variables . Theor. Probab. Appl. 52 : 393 – 397 . [Google Scholar]) to an array of dependent random variables satisfying Hoffmann-Jørgensen type inequalities.     

Strong Limit Theorems for Pairwise NQD Random Variables

A number of strong laws of large numbers for sequences of pairwise negative quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables have been established by using the generalized three series theorem. In this article, we obtain a strong law of large numbers by using the truncation technique and method of subsequences instead of the generalized three series theorem. Our result generalizes and improves on the corresponding one in Li and Yang (2008 Li , R. , Yang , W. ( 2008 ). Strong convergence of pairwise NQD random sequences . J. Math. Anal. Appl. 344 : 741 – 747 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We also obtain a complete convergence result for an array of rowwise pairwise NQD random variables.     

Asymptotic Inference for Waiting Times and Patiences in Queues with Abandonment

Motivated by applications in call center management, we propose a framework based on empirical process techniques for inference about waiting time and patience distributions in multiserver queues with abandonment. The framework rigorises heuristics based on survival analysis of independent and identically distributed observations by allowing correlated waiting times. Assuming a regenerative structure of offered waiting times, we establish asymptotic properties of estimators of limiting distribution functions and derived functionals. We discuss construction of bootstrap confidence intervals and statistical tests, including a simple bootstrap two-sample test for comparing patience distributions. A small simulation study and a real data example are presented.