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151.
Mahdi Teimouri 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(11):3310-3322
ABSTRACTThe novel Balakrishnan skew-normal distribution introduced in 2008 has received considerable interest. Here, we derive stochastic representations for simulating order statistics of the novel Balakrishnan skew-normal distribution. The resulting algorithms are more efficient than the ordinary sorting algorithm. 相似文献
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156.
证券市场流动性与交易者群体变动的混沌研究 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
从证券市场微观结构角度,利用交易者群体可变的动态模型,分别在确定与不确定性金
融环境下,研究离散交易状态下市场的形成过程,并分析了交易者群体变动的混沌条件. 结果
表明,市场流动性的最低标准是买卖双方的交易者群体要有一个恰当的比例,市场达到稳定流
动性的时间与描述离开股市交易者的参数有关,通过交易制度对交易者群体参数的影响,可实
现对市场过程的控制,最后给出仿真计算. 相似文献
157.
Mlonte Carlo Techniques for Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis in Public Health Risk Assessments 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Most public health risk assessments assume and combine a series of average, conservative, and worst-case values to derive a conservative point estimate of risk. This procedure has major limitations. This paper demonstrates a new methodology for extended uncertainty analyses in public health risk assessments using Monte Carlo techniques. The extended method begins as do some conventional methods--with the preparation of a spreadsheet to estimate exposure and risk. This method, however, continues by modeling key inputs as random variables described by probability density functions (PDFs). Overall, the technique provides a quantitative way to estimate the probability distributions for exposure and health risks within the validity of the model used. As an example, this paper presents a simplified case study for children playing in soils contaminated with benzene and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). 相似文献
158.
Health Risk Assessment of a Modern Municipal Waste Incinerator 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Boudet Céline Zmirou Denis Laffond Mauricette Balducci Franck Benoit-Guyod Jean-Louis 《Risk analysis》1999,19(6):1215-1222
During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracer pollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1, 1, 1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2·10–5 g/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5·10–5 and 6.5·10–5 g/m3), yielding a 2.6·10–10 carcinogenic risk (1.2·10–10–5.4·10–10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8·10–4 g/m3 (0.9.10–4 – 3.6·10–4 g/m3) and 8.6·10–8 (4.3·10–8–17.3·10–8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3·10–6 g/m3 (4.0·10–6–17.6·10–6) and 1.5·10–8 (7.2·10–9–3.1·10–8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however. 相似文献
159.
A system that includes a number of terrorist cells is considered. The cells can consist of one or more terrorists. The current number of terrorist cells is further denoted by N(t), where t is a current time counted from any appropriate origin. The objective is to find the evolution of the system in terms of N(t) and some interpretable parameters, such as the initial number of the terrorist cells N0=N(0), the cell disabling rate constant lambda (or the cell half-life t1/2), and the rate of formation of new cells P. The cost-effectiveness analysis, performed in the framework of the model, reveals that the effectiveness of disabling a terrorist cell is getting worse after 2-3 half-lives of a cell, which shows that if the anti-terrorist actions have not reached their goal during that time, the respective policy should be considered for revision, using the risk assessment consideration. Another important issue raised concerns balancing the efforts related to counterterrorism actions inside the system and the efforts protecting its borders. The respective data analysis is suggested and illustrated using simulated data. 相似文献
160.
Methods for assessing the variability of an estimated contour of a density are discussed. A new method called the coverage plot is proposed. Techniques including sectioning and bootstrap techniques are compared for a particular problem which arises in Monte Carlo simulation approaches to estimating the spatial distribution of risk in the operation of weapons firing ranges. It is found that, for computational reasons, the sectioning procedure outperforms the bootstrap for this problem. The roles of bias and sample size are also seen in the examples shown. 相似文献