Influenza Infection Risk and Predominate Exposure Route: Uncertainty Analysis

An effective nonpharmaceutical intervention for influenza interrupts an exposure route that contributes significantly to infection risk. Herein, we use uncertainty analysis (point‐interval method) and Monte Carlo simulation to explore the magnitude of infection risk and predominant route of exposure. We utilized a previously published mathematical model of a susceptible person attending a bed‐ridden infectious person. Infection risk is sensitive to the magnitude of virus emission and contact rates. The contribution of droplet spray exposure to infection risk increases with cough frequency, and decreases with virus concentration in cough particles. We consider two infectivity scenarios: greater infectivity of virus deposited in the upper respiratory tract than virus inhaled in respirable aerosols, based on human studies; and equal infectivity in the two locations, based on studies in guinea pigs. Given that virus have equal probability of infection throughout the respiratory tract, the mean overall infection risk is 9.8 × 10^?2 (95th percentile 0.78). However, when virus in the upper respiratory tract is less infectious than inhaled virus, the overall infection risk is several orders of magnitude lower. In this event, inhalation is a significant exposure route. Contact transmission is important in both infectivity scenarios. The presence of virus in only respirable particles increases the mean overall infection risk by 1–3 orders of magnitude, with inhalation contributing ≥ 99% of the infection risk. The analysis indicates that reduction of uncertainties in the concentration of virus in expiratory particles of different sizes, expiratory event frequency, and infectivity at different sites in the respiratory tract will clarify the predominate exposure routes for influenza.     

毛泽东政治体制改革的探索思路及启示意义

毛泽东在领导中国革命和建设的长期实践中,对我国政治体制改革问题进行了积极探索,并提出了初步改革思路,这对于我们继续推进政治体制改革具有启示意义.     

太平洋航线安全与中国的战略对策

太平洋作为世界上面积最大的海洋,在航运上具有非常重要的地位。中国位于西太平洋沿岸,进出海洋必经太平洋,太平洋航线对于中国的发展至关重要。但目前中国的太平洋航线,由于受各种因素影响还不太平,需要采取有效措施确保其安全。     

Elephant-seal movements: Modelling migration

Elephant seals migrate over vast areas of the eastern North Pacific Ocean between rookeries in southern California and distant northern foraging areas. Several models of particle movement were evaluated and a model for great-circle motion found to give reasonable results for the movement of an adult female. This model takes specific account of the fact that the movement is on the surface of a sphere and that the animal is apparently heading toward a particular destination. The parameters of the motion were estimated. Such a great-circle path of migration may imply that these seals have the ability to assess their position with respect to some global or celestial cues, allowing them to continually adjust their course and achieve the most direct geodesic route between origin and destination of migration. But the navigational mechanism actually used by these seals to accomplish such feats is as yet unknown.     

党执政时期的群众路线形态变换及其应对路径

中国共产党执政后,群众路线的形态在不同历史时期发生了重要变化,以适应相应时期的经济社会发展要求。以运动形态呈现群众路线的原因在于：高度集中的权力是体制性资源,科层体制失灵是选择动因。以治理形态呈现的群众路线,主要通过制度安排、公共政策、作风建设来实现。资源配置市场化、社会结构多元化、网络信息碎片化是社会转型期群众路线形态变换的缘由。优化群众路线呈现形态的路径选择包括以下方面：扼制官僚主义的生成繁衍、创设群众路线的组织网络、建构公民参与的政策模式。     

男女平等的制障因素与实现路径——1996～2006年社会党妇女国际历次会议关于男女平等的探讨

1996～2006年的10年间,社会党妇女国际通过一系列会议对男女平等的制障因素和实现路径进行了探讨,认为新自由主义影响下的经济和贸易的全球化、贫困的女性化、国与国之间经济发展的巨大差距催生的劳动力国际流动的“悬崖效应”等严重制约了男女平等的发展。社会党妇女国际认为,解决问题的基本路径是:促进社会生产力发展;采取改善妇女经济困境的整体经济政策和发展策略;提高妇女的资源占有份额和政治参与能力;运用民主社会主义的价值理念整合人类社会,促进社会和谐发展,实现男女平等。     

The humanitarian crisis of migration versus the crisis of humanitarianism: current dimensions and challenges for social work practice*

People who comprise today’s mass migrations are the embodiment of an increasingly hurtful planetary interconnectedness between towering inequalities and hegemonies and human lives. The humanitarian crisis has turned into a fundamental crisis of humanitarianism. The crisis of humanitarianism builds up by the state borders increasingly militarized, equipped with one manner or the other of securitization, seeking to externalize the migrating people. Further, the governments seek to institutionalize and spatially segregate the people, whilst the resident population is subjected to programmatic inciting of racism and xenophobia. Racist eurocentrism pictures the West as democratic, and migrant people as non-democratic; it does not distinguish between individuals and political regimes; does not take into consideration the emergency situations from which they flee: it is thus a form of armed humanitarianism. The Balkan countries which were part of the Balkan Refugee route have become prison countries, custodians of the EU border. They conserve the image of the dangerous Balkans and consolidate Balkanism. A complex social work response includes individual, institutional, curricular, and research levels of reflection and intervention.     

蒸腾作用可能还存在一个重要意义

蒸腾作用很可能是植物获取氧气的一个重要途径.植物的结构与这一获氧过程存在着适应性,尤其在低氧环境中,由于蒸腾作用产生的水分流动,使水中的氧不断地供应给植物,从而满足植物的要求.这一研究可为进一步认识植物进化途径、植物解剖学现象、植物生理生态学适应性及植物学应用等提供借鉴.     

花粉管通道转导外源野生稻DNA进入栽培稻的方法研究

本文报道了在实验室(空调培养)、温室及田间等不同条件下,利用花粉管通道转导外源野生稻 DNA 进入栽培稻,并将 D_0代外源 DNA 重组体幼胚进行培养,威功地获得了一批外源野生稻 DNA 重组体植株的实验方法。结果表明,用花粉管通道转导外源 DNA 的整体系统是简单易行的方法。花粉管通道转导外源野生稻DNA 与 D_0代重组体幼胚离体培养相结合的技术是在分子水平上改良稻种资源和进行水稻分子育种的有效途径。     

循环经济财税激励机制：国外的经验及中国的选择

有效的财税政策是循环经济发展的主要推动力。国外主要从政府奖励、税收优惠、收费改革等方面,使经济负外部性内在化。借鉴国外正向激励制度的先进经验,中国发展循环经济的相关制度安排主要包括:绿色财政预算制度、绿色金融、投资和税收制度等。