经济描写:《红旗谱》的立篇之本

《红旗谱》的经济描写,迄今未有人将它作为独立系统的文学现象加以评估。本文以大量实证史料和统计数据为依据,通过时代经济背景与作品经济描写相对照,论述作品经济描写的真实性、科学性、丰富性及艺术成就,进而揭示经济描写在整个作品中的重要意义和"立篇之本"的巨大价值。     

A simple root selection method for univariate finite normal mixture models

It is well known that there exist multiple roots of the likelihood equations for finite normal mixture models. Selecting a consistent root for finite normal mixture models has long been a challenging problem. Simply using the root with the largest likelihood will not work because of the spurious roots. In addition, the likelihood of normal mixture models with unequal variance is unbounded and thus its maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is not well defined. In this paper, we propose a simple root selection method for univariate normal mixture models by incorporating the idea of goodness of fit test. Our new method inherits both the consistency properties of distance estimators and the efficiency of the MLE. The new method is simple to use and its computation can be easily done using existing R packages for mixture models. In addition, the proposed root selection method is very general and can be also applied to other univariate mixture models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and compare it with some other existing methods through simulation studies and a real data application.     

试论冯友兰与唐君毅的道德观之异同——以《新原人》与《道德自我之建立》为中心

冯友兰与唐君毅在相近时期先后完成道德哲学的著作《新原人》和《道德自我之建立》，冯友兰重视道德之理、社会规律和人的觉解，有道德境界和天地境界之分;唐君毅关注心之本体的自觉，论述心能“超越现实自我限制”。冯友兰主张恶的根源在于颠倒了“真我”的主从次序，唐君毅强调人的自我陷溺。冯友兰和唐君毅皆承认超道德的领域，它又不离于日用平常。     

Intervention time series analysis of voluntary,counselling and testing on HIV infections in West African sub-region: the case of Ghana

In this paper, intervention time series models were developed to examine the effectiveness of the voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) programme in the northern and southern sectors of Ghana. Pre-intervention data of HIV reported cases in the northern and southern sectors were first modelled as Box–Jenkins univariate time series. Second, the adopted models from the pre-intervention data were extended to include the intervention variable. The intervention variable was coded as zero for the pre-intervention period (1 January 1996–31 December 2002) and one for the post-intervention period (1 January 2003–31 December 2007). The models developed were applied to the entire data for the two sectors to estimate the effect of the VCT programme. Our findings indicate that the VCT programme was found to be associated with detection of 20 and 40 new HIV infections per 100,000 persons per month in the northern and southern sectors (p?相似文献   

一类模糊控制器的控制性能

以一个直流串联电机作为实例,验证了由模糊蕴涵算子构造的模糊控制器的控制品质,其控制品质是通过比较均方根差的大小衡量的。通过与其它文献得出的结论比较得出,采用本文所提供的模糊蕴涵算子去构造模糊控制器,其控制效果会更好。设计者也可以参考均方根差选用合适的模糊蕴涵算子设计模糊控制器。     

论风险的产生及风险复杂性的根源

风险是一种普遍现象,同时,也是具有复杂性的现象。本文首先论述了各种约束和人类价值判断是风险产生的根源,随后阐述了风险复杂性的八类根源,最后,提出了风险管理的一般思想和方法。     

Panel Seasonal Unit Root Test: Further Simulation Results and An Application to Unemployment Data

Summary: In this paper the seasonal unit root test of Hylleberg et al. (1990) is generalized to cover a heterogenous panel. The procedure follows the work of Im, Pesaran and Shin (2002) and is independently proposed by Otero et al. (2004). Test statistics are given and critical values are obtained by simulation. Moreover, the properties of the tests are analyzed for different deterministic and dynamic specifications. Evidence is presented that for a small time series dimension the power is low even for increasing cross section dimension. Therefore, it seems necessary to have a higher time series dimension than cross section dimension. The test is applied to unemployment data in industrialized countries. In some cases seasonal unit roots are detected. However, the null hypotheses of panel seasonal unit roots are rejected. The null hypothesis of a unit root at the zero frequency is not rejected, thereby supporting the presence of hysteresis effects. * The research of this paper was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. The paper was presented at the workshop “Unit roots and cointegration in panel data” in Frankfurt, October 2004 and in the poster-session at the EC2 meeting in Marseille, December 2004. We are grateful to the participants of the workshops and an anonymous referee for their helpful comments.     

政治腐败的根源研究

腐败已经成为一个全球性、历史性的难题,它正在或已经渗入各国政治、经济、社会、文化等各个领域。腐败的根源,正如腐败的产生,是极其复杂的。以往我们在解释腐败的原因时,都归结为两方面,一是剥削阶级的影响,二是制度尚未完善。但是,随着反腐败斗争的深入开展和对腐败现象的深入研究,关于腐败成因的主要理论观点也越来越多,权力寻租、权力失监和现代化都会导致腐败,价值失范、道德约束乏力和强国家弱公民社会也会造成腐败,薪俸过低容易导致腐败在国际上已经成为共识,历史因素和外来因素可以诱发腐败,德治思想和清官崇拜意识导致腐败,腐败成本过低也是导致腐败的根源。     

Bounded integrated processes and unit root tests

In the framework of integrated processes, the problem of testing the presence of unknown boundaries which constrain the process to move within a closed interval is considered. To analyze this problem, the concept of bounded integrated process is introduced, thus allowing to formally define boundary conditions for I(1) processes. A new class of tests, which are based on the rescaled range of the process, is introduced in order to test the null hypothesis of no boundary conditions. The limit distribution of the test statistics involved can be expressed in terms of the distribution of the range of Brownian functionals, while the power properties are obtained by deriving some asymptotic results for I(1) processes with boundary conditions. Both theoretical and simulation investigations show that range-based tests outperform standard unit root tests significantly when used to detect the presence of boundary conditions. A previous draft of the paper (Cavaliere, 2000) was presented at the 8th World Congress of the Econometric Society, Seattle, 11–16 August 2000. I wish sincerely to thank: Martin Jacobsen for his patience in discussing weak convergence to regulated Brownian motions and his valuable suggestions; the Department of Theoretical Statistics of the University of Copenhagen whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged; Tommaso Proietti for important suggestions; Silvano Bordignon and partecipants at the CIdE seminar, University of Padua, June 2000; two anonymous referees. Partial financial support from 60% M.U.R.S.T. research grants is acknowledged.     

ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TESTS: A UNIFYING APPROACH

This paper adopts a unified approach to the derivation of the asymptotic distributions of various seasonal unit root tests. The procedures considered are those of Dickey et al. [DHF], Kunst, Hylleberg et al. [HEGY], Osborn et al. [OCSB], Ghysels et al. [GHL] and Franses. This unified approach shows that the asymptotic distributions of all these test statistics are functions of the same vector of Brownian motions. The Kunst test and the overall HEGY F-test are, indeed, equivalent both asymptotically and in finite samples, while the Franses and GHL tests are shown to have equivalent parameterizations. The OCSB and DHF test regressions are viewed as restricted forms of the Kunst-HEGY regressions, and these restrictions may have non-trivial asymptotic implications.