论长波框架中的世界经济走势

在世界经济增长和发展的过程中 ,存在着四种相互包容、相互叠加的经济周期。 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,世界经济进入了第五个长波上升期 ,其突出表现是新经济带来的快速增长 ,其动力是作为技术创新和制度创新的信息化和经济全球化。在这次长波上升期中 ,世界经济表现出均等化和两极分化两种趋势 ,从而改变着世界经济格局。在长波上升期中 ,如果没有外生的重大随机冲击 ,短周期和主周期一般来说会出现波动相对弱化现象。     

从族谱编纂看满族的民族认同

族谱是民间最常见的传世文献 ,具有追根寻祖、辨别亲疏、敬宗收族等作用。本文指出 ,族谱在民族识别和民族认同方面具有不容低估的现实意义。这里 ,重要的不仅在于甄别史实的真伪 ,而且还在于理解特定社会氛围中族人对于族谱的策略性利用。本文以满族族谱为主要对象 ,将实地调查与文本分析相结合 ,尝试对族谱在民族认同中的功能进行个案研究。     

Who cares and how much: exploring the determinants of co-residential informal care

The importance of informal care provided inside the household (co-residential care) is widely acknowledged in policy circles. However, the factors that determine the likelihood and scale of provision are not fully understood. A two-part model (2PM) is used to investigate both participation and levels of provision. Random effects dynamic panel specifications are employed. Results show that co-residential informal care competes with other time demanding activities, such as childcare and employment. Wealthier individuals are less likely to be caregivers, whereas wealthier households have a higher tendency towards caregiving. Evidence of both substitution and complementarity is found between formal and informal care. Informal care and health status are significantly related, with carers more likely to report worse General Health Questionnaire scores than non-carers. Finally, significant dynamic effects are observed with the continuance of the provision of informal care being more likely than the initiation of such activity, while heavy commitment in the past increases the hours provided in the current period.

不平等的再生产：从社会经济地位到健康不平等--基于CFPS2010的实证分析

本文利用2010年中国家庭追踪调查（ CFPS ）数据,探索性分析了社会经济地位影响健康不平等的两个中介机制－－健康预防机制和健康恢复机制。研究结果表明,健康预防机制中,社会经济地位影响生活方式,进而影响自评健康水平的假设得到部分验证,其中营养水平的中介效应得到验证;健康恢复机制中,社会经济地位影响医疗保健能力,进而影响自评健康水平的假设得到部分验证,其中医疗保健支付能力的中介效应得到证明。最后,分析发现,＂看病贵＂比＂看病难＂更能影响民众的健康状况。     

礼乐兴衰与晋宋之际"诗运转关" 别解

在东晋礼乐之衰和晋宋之交礼乐之兴的背景下, 礼乐兴衰变化对诗歌发展有着重要影响.礼乐复兴促成了刘宋诗歌创作的繁荣, 包括诗歌题材的扩大、 内容的丰富、 宫廷诗风的形成、 诗歌语言和形式的更新、 诗乐联系的紧密及文人乐府诗创作的繁荣等. 这些都是对以玄言诗为主导的东晋诗坛的反拨,促进了南朝诗歌基本美学风貌的形成, "诗运转关" 也由此而生.     

The challenge of pension reform in Georgia: Non‐contributory pensions and elderly poverty

Georgia's national social security system offers almost universal non‐contributory basic pension coverage. The basic pension has, to date, proved effective in dealing with old‐age poverty. But Georgia's fiscal constraints and ageing population also highlight the importance of improving the pension system, in order to ensure its sustainability. This article presents policy reform choices, which suggest that, in Georgia, pension reform might include increasing the statutory retirement ages and reducing the generosity of benefits through means testing. The case of the Georgian non‐contributory basic pension might hold value for some low‐ and middle‐income countries that are considering the implementation of, or expanding coverage under, a non‐contributory pension programme.     

Bayesian inference for the parameters of Weibull distribution under progressive Type-I interval censored data with beta-binomial removals

This article considers the problem of estimating the parameters of Weibull distribution under progressive Type-I interval censoring scheme with beta-binomial removals. Classical as well as the Bayesian procedures for the estimation of unknown model parameters have been developed. The Bayes estimators are obtained under SELF and GELF using MCMC technique. The performance of the estimators, has been discussed in terms of their MSEs. Further, expression for the expected number of total failures has been obtained. A real dataset of the survival times for patients with plasma cell myeloma is used to illustrate the suitability of the proposed methodology.     

Effects of some design factors on the distribution of similarity indices in cluster analysis

This article investigates the effects of number of clusters, cluster size, and correction for chance agreement on the distribution of two similarity indices, namely, Jaccard and Rand indices. Skewness and kurtosis are calculated for the two indices and their corrected forms then compared with those of the normal distribution. Three clustering algorithms are implemented: complete linkage, Ward, and K-means. Data were randomly generated from bivariate normal distributions with specified means and variance covariance matrices. Three-way ANOVA is performed to assess the significance of the design factors using skewness and kurtosis of the indices as responses. Test statistics for testing skewness and kurtosis and observed power are calculated. Simulation results showed that independent of the clustering algorithms or the similarity indices used, the interaction effect cluster size x number of clusters and the main effects of cluster size and number of clusters were found always significant for skewness and kurtosis. The three way interaction of cluster size x correction x number of clusters was significant for skewness of Rand and Jaccard indices using all clustering algorithms, but was not significant using Ward's method for both Rand and Jaccard indices, while significant for Jaccard only using complete linkage and K-means algorithms. The correction for chance agreement was significant for skewness and kurtosis using Rand and Jaccard indices when complete linkage method is used. Hence, such design factors must be taken into consideration when studying distribution of such indices.     

Evaluation of the impact of intervention programmes on education organisations: Application to a Quality Management System

This paper analyses the importance of evaluating the various components of the programmes or actions carried out by education organisations. It highlights the need to assess the impact of the intervention on the organisation and consider how changes are consolidated over time in interaction with the context. We propose an impact evaluation model and as an example have chosen the implementation of Quality Management Systems in schools. The paper analyses the results obtained in 40 schools in three regions (Spanish Autonomous Communities) with varying levels of implementation. The results show overall impact on these education centres as the teachers and management teams of the centres perceive it. This impact is more evident in some of the dimensions considered in the study than in others. The results also confirm the differences between regional contexts.     

人口受教育程度对居民消费的影响研究--基于动态面板分位数回归法

本文采用1996～2015年的31个省市自治区宏观数据,使用动态面板分位数回归方法研究人口受教育程度和居民消费的数量关系。研究结果表明,人口受教育程度对消费有着较为显著的影响,且人口受教育程度对中等消费支出水平的影响略大于高、低消费支出水平的影响,这说明中等消费水平的居民消费受到人口受教育程度的影响更加敏感和有弹性。另外,模型中其他各解释变量系数在各分位数上的差异不大,说明这些影响因素对于不同消费支出水平的消费影响没有太明显差异。