A new family of multivariate slash distributions

In this article, a new form of multivariate slash distribution is introduced and some statistical properties are derived. In order to illustrate the advantage of this distribution over the existing generalized multivariate slash distribution in the literature, it is applied to a real data set.     

手机文化传播机制形成路径及其形式

手机被称为“带着体温的媒体”。从朋友、同事、家人之间的人际传播,到单位、地区、国家的群体传播及全球传播,以手机为主的移动互联网正式进入了主流媒体序列,重构了各种文化、社会、政治体系内外媒介传播的权力关系。手机媒体技术与传播形态主要体现在媒介形态创新和使用形式创新两个方面,手机文化传播方式的不断创新与普及,很大程度上改变了人类的思维方式、社交方式和消费方式,带来了文化传播的丰富和繁荣。充分的用户基础、快速的技术创新、网络的安全治理、全媒体的深度融合将使手机发展成为最具竞争力、最有传播效果的主流文化媒体。     

MAP segmentation in Bayesian hidden Markov models: a case study

We consider the problem of estimating the maximum posterior probability (MAP) state sequence for a finite state and finite emission alphabet hidden Markov model (HMM) in the Bayesian setup, where both emission and transition matrices have Dirichlet priors. We study a training set consisting of thousands of protein alignment pairs. The training data is used to set the prior hyperparameters for Bayesian MAP segmentation. Since the Viterbi algorithm is not applicable any more, there is no simple procedure to find the MAP path, and several iterative algorithms are considered and compared. The main goal of the paper is to test the Bayesian setup against the frequentist one, where the parameters of HMM are estimated using the training data.     

浅析日语在中国的传播历程

中日两国是一衣带水的邻邦，两国有着悠久的交流史，而语言必然是交流的工具和先行。任何文化交流包括文字交流必然是双向的，作为日语，其在中国的传播，以及中国人对日语的理解与接受是一个较为复杂的过程，其先后经历了原始「錄音（ろくぉん）」阶段、「寄語（きこ）」阶段（即翻译阶段）、「仮名（カナ）」的「伝来（でんらい）」阶段。     

Interval estimation for misclassification rate parameters in a complementary Poisson model

We investigate three interval estimators for binomial misclassification rates in a complementary Poisson model where the data are possibly misclassified: a Wald-based interval, a score-based interval, and an interval based on the profile log-likelihood statistic. We investigate the coverage and average width properties of these intervals via a simulation study. For small Poisson counts and small misclassification rates, the intervals can perform poorly in terms of coverage. The profile log-likelihood confidence interval (CI) is often proved to outperform the other intervals with good coverage and width properties. Lastly, we apply the CIs to a real data set involving traffic accident data that contain misclassified counts.     

Estimation of gaussian mixtures with rotationally invariant covariance matrices

Homoscedastic and heteroscedastic Gaussian mixtures differ in the constraints placed on the covariance matrices of the mixture components. A new mixture, called herein a strophoscedastic mixture, is defined by a new constraint, This constraint requires the matrices to be identical under orthogonal trans¬formations, where different transformations are allowed for different matrices. It is shown that the M-step of the EM method for estimating the parameters of strophoscedastic mixtures from sample data is explicitly solvable using singular value decompositions. Consequently, the EM-based maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is as easily implemented for strophoscedastic mixtures as it is for homoscedastic and heteroscedastic mixtures. An example of a “noisy” Archimedian spiral is presented.     

Estimation of a discriminant function from a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions

The classification of a random variable based on a mixture can be meaningfully discussed only if the class of all finite mixtures is identifiable. In this paper, we find the maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of the mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions by using classified and unclassified observations. Next, we estimate the nonlinear discriminant function of the underlying model. Also, we calculate the total probabilities of misclassification as well as the percentage bias. In addition, we investigate the performance of all results through a series of simulation experiments by means of relative efficiencies. Finally, we analyse some simulated and real data sets through the findings of the paper.     

一种三维复杂介质波前时间的高精度数值算法

基于水平集的波前扩展算法,如FMM(Fast Marching Method)、GMM(Group Marching Method)，作为一类计算复杂介质波前时间的有效方法而被广泛使用。该类算法都是基于程函方程的有限差分格式来计算波传播时间，在介质离散单元尺寸较大的情况下，计算精度较低。为提高波前时间的计算精度，在一个长方体单元内，将任意点的波传播时间用已知节点上波前时间的插值函数表示，然后根据Fermat原理确定未知节点上的波前时间，再结合高效率的GMM算法，形成了一种计算三维复杂介质波前时间的有效算法。数值模拟实验表明，与原GMM算法相比，该算法大大提高了波前时间的计算精度，同时具有很强的稳定性和适应性。     

A time-varying measurement error model for age of onset of a psychiatric diagnosis: applied to first depressive episode diagnosed by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)

A substantial degree of uncertainty exists surrounding the reconstruction of events based on memory recall. This form of measurement error affects the performance of structured interviews such as the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), an important tool to assess mental health in the community. Measurement error probably explains the discrepancy in estimates between longitudinal studies with repeated assessments (the gold-standard), yielding approximately constant rates of depression, versus cross-sectional studies which often find increasing rates closer in time to the interview. Repeated assessments of current status (or recent history) are more reliable than reconstruction of a person's psychiatric history based on a single interview. In this paper, we demonstrate a method of estimating a time-varying measurement error distribution in the age of onset of an initial depressive episode, as diagnosed by the CIDI, based on an assumption regarding age-specific incidence rates. High-dimensional non-parametric estimation is achieved by the EM-algorithm with smoothing. The method is applied to data from a Norwegian mental health survey in 2000. The measurement error distribution changes dramatically from 1980 to 2000, with increasing variance and greater bias further away in time from the interview. Some influence of the measurement error on already published results is found.     

Estimating survival curves with left truncated and interval censored data via the ems algorithm

It is well-known that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a survival function may severely underestimate the survival probabilities at very early times for left truncated data. This problem might be overcome by instead computing a smoothed nonparametric estimator (SNE) via the EMS algorithm. The close connection between the SNE and the maximum penalized likelihood estimator is also established. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the superior performance of the SNE over that of the NPMLE, in terms of either bias or variance, even for moderately large Samples. The methodology is illustrated with an application to the Massachusetts Health Care Panel Study dataset to estimate the probability of being functionally independent for non-poor male and female groups rcspectively.