Quality and Reliability in Top-event Estimation: Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis in Case of Dependent Events

This article deals with the quantitative Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the estimation method of the top-event in case of dependent events. It aims at addressing two main issues: (1) the decomposition of variability for the top-event according to several error components linked to the estimation of the top-event and sources of internal and external variations for a complex system; and (2) the definition of a Performance Measure Independent of Adjustment in order to set the quality of the top-event as a complex measure of the system failure. A simulated study applied to the health system is also carried out.     

中国石油股份实施ERP的思考——基于中国石油华北天然气销售公司的实践

自2007年底开始,中石油在地区公司推行ERP,华北天然气销售公司从2008年5月开始组织ERP项目建设,2008年11月开始实施。华北天然气销售公司在实施ERP过程中对传统会计务实理念产生了冲击,对公司的会计基础工作也产生了影响。从长期看,实施ERP与FMIS融合系统能整合中石油的技术平台,提高企业的整体竞争力。因此,中石油在ERP的实施中,应改变传统会计观念,加强基础数据的维护,保证基础数据的准确性和实效性,完善ERP系统的配套管理机制和运行机制,建立配套的内部控制机制,做好风险管理工作。     

Extending systems thinking in planning and evaluation using group concept mapping and system dynamics to tackle complex problems

Group concept mapping (GCM) has been successfully employed in program planning and evaluation for over 25 years. The broader set of systems thinking methodologies (of which GCM is one), have only recently found their way into the field. We present an overview of systems thinking emerging from a system dynamics (SD) perspective, and illustrate the potential synergy between GCM and SD. As with GCM, participatory processes are frequently employed when building SD models; however, it can be challenging to engage a large and diverse group of stakeholders in the iterative cycles of divergent thinking and consensus building required, while maintaining a broad perspective on the issue being studied. GCM provides a compelling resource for overcoming this challenge, by richly engaging a diverse set of stakeholders in broad exploration, structuring, and prioritization. SD provides an opportunity to extend GCM findings by embedding constructs in a testable hypothesis (SD model) describing how system structure and changes in constructs affect outcomes over time. SD can be used to simulate the hypothesized dynamics inherent in GCM concept maps. We illustrate the potential of the marriage of these methodologies in a case study of BECOMING, a federally-funded program aimed at strengthening the cross-sector system of care for youth with severe emotional disturbances.     

学分绩点制在武汉七所部属高校的实践与探索

学分绩点制是一种能客观衡量学生学习质量的教学管理制度。学分绩点制在武汉地区七校联合办学实践中的应用,为联合办学的可持续发展提供了有益的探索。     

中国高校泛行政化的源与流——基于对古代官学系统的图谱分析

高校的泛行政化并不是当下才有的现象,而是古已有之。弄清高校的这种泛行政化现象的源头所在以及高校泛行政化的具体流变过程,需要对我国古代官学系统进行系统的分析,用图谱演绎的方法来对古代官学系统演进过程进行研究,是实现对高校泛行政化溯本求源的有效方法之一。     

A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

21世纪中国学界辽金经济史研究回顾与展望

辽金经济史一直是学者研究的重点,21世纪以来学界在辽金农业概况、发展原因、土地制度,畜牧业结构,货币种类、税收制度及贸易几个方面研究深入,取得了丰硕的成果。但对区域农业特点、土地买卖及粮食供给、辽金农业思想史等问题缺乏深入研究。     

试论辽代节日朝贺制度的建构

辽朝享国二百余年,《辽史·百官志》载其属国达七十八个,在如此庞大的帝国势力范围内能够稳固其统治,不仅是因为契丹拥有强悍的军事力量,更重要的是辽朝建构了有效控御四方的节日朝贺体系。辽代境内、境外、绝域之国等朝贺体系的架构,体现了辽代朝贺制度的蕃汉结合、重威辅恩、礼仪不完备等特点。为了更好地运行朝贺制度,辽代还设立了敌烈麻都司、宣徽院、驿馆、四方馆、地方府州等专门负责机构。节日朝贺制度作为朝贡制度的重要组成部分,渐趋凸显其在辽朝处理内外关系的作用,并逐渐形成了以辽为中心的东亚朝贡体系。     

中国人口学科国际化水平及其影响因素

国际化是学科成熟与发展的一个重要指标。但是作为世界人口第一大国,中国人口学科的国际化并没有发展到一个相对应的水平。在界定了学科国际化概念的基础上,借助问卷调查数据来分析中国人口学科国际化的现状,探讨中国人口科学继续与国际学界融合所面临的困难及其主要原因。结果表明,中国人口学的国际化明显处于不断萎缩的态势,其直接动因和深层次缘由分别是整个人口学界的国际化意识与能力的减弱,以及人口学科文化与制度本身存在的缺陷。加强国际化的学科文化建设与建立相配套的学科制度是提高中国人口学科国际化水平的重要途径。     

Psychometric properties of the Transitions from Foster Care Key Leader Survey

This study summarizes the development and piloting of the Transitions from Foster Care Key Leader Survey (TFC-KLS), an instrument designed to measure change in systems serving young people transitioning from foster care to adulthood. The Jim Casey Youth Opportunity Initiative’s logic model was used as a basis for instrument development. The instrument was piloted with 119 key leaders in six communities. Seven of eight latent scales performed well in psychometric testing. The relationships among the 24 measures of system change were explored. A CFA testing overall model fit was satisfactory following slight modifications. Finally, a test of inter-rater reliability between two raters did not find reliable reporting of service availability in a supplemental portion of the survey. The findings were generally positive and supported the validity and utility of the instrument for measuring system change, following some adaptations. Implications for the field are discussed.