国内外公共突发事件应对研究述评

本文分别回顾了中外有关社会公共突发事件应急和企业危机管理的研究过程,从纷繁的研究文献中概括了有关突发事件应急的研究框架,认为对突发事件应急的研究可以归纳为静态系统和动态过程两个方面。近十几年来的研究重点主要放在了动态过程的研究上,而对静态系统的研究相对比较薄弱。     

太湖黄颡鱼生物学和渔业的初步分析

分析了太湖黄颡鱼（Peteobagrusfulvidraco）的一般生物学特性,包括种内性状变异、年龄与生长、食性、繁殖等,并对黄颡鱼在太湖渔业开发中的作用进行了评价。结果表明：黄颡鱼对太湖经济鱼类危害不大,而且有抑制野杂鱼过量繁殖的作用,因此认为在太湖现有的生态条件下,黄颡鱼应作为优质鱼类加以保护。     

Perception of Ecological Risk to Water Environments

This paper examines lay and expert perceptions of the ecological risks associated with a range of human activities that could adversely affect water resource environments. It employs the psychometric paradigm pioneered in characterizing perceptions of human health risks, which involves surveys to obtain judgments from subjects about risk items in terms of several important characteristics of the risks. The paper builds on a previous study that introduced ecological risk perception. This second study employs a larger, more diverse sample, a more focused topic area, and comparisons between lay and expert judgments. The results confirm that a small set of underlying factors explain a great deal of variability in lay judgments about ecological risks. These have been termed Ecological Impact, Human Benefits, Controllability , and Knowledge. The results are useful in explaining subjects' judgments of the general riskiness of, and need for regulation of, various risk items. The results also indicate several differences and areas of agreement among the lay and expert samples that point to potential key issues in future ecological risk management efforts for water resources.     

从生态思维方式三个视角分析社会主义核心价值体系

社会主义核心价值体系已成为学术界研究的热点。如何从新的角度深入理解社会主义核心价值体系,是研究走向纵深的必然要求。通过生态思维方式,基于生态学研究理论与方法,运用开放性、预见性、和谐性的思维视角解读社会主义核心价值体系,领悟普遍联系性、永恒发展性、对立统一性等特征。运用生态思维方式解读社会主义核心价值体系,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

教派主义与叙利亚危机教派化机制浅析

关于教派因素在叙利亚危机中作用的现有研究多持工具论观点,忽视了教派身份认同被精英工具化的必要条件以及教派动员的微观机制。本文认为,教派因素确非叙利亚危机爆发的根本原因,但阿萨德家族统治时期叙利亚社会长期积累的教派间利益分流、社会区隔和敌对情绪,一定程度上构成了危机教派化的前提条件和大众动员的最初框架。2011年叙利亚危机爆发伊始,民间自发的地方性教派动员和暴力已然出现。叙国内外精英通过不同政策迅速直接或间接介入民间自发性的教派动员,制造或强化了历史积累和新近出现的教派敌意、利益冲突、能力、机会等因素,触发并加剧了“安全困境/暴力螺旋”和“群体内—群体间交互作用”两大机制,最终导致了危机的教派化。     

Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.     

大学生心理危机的识别与预警

心理危机的识别与预警既是预防心理危机发生的重要策略，也是对危机当事人和相关人进行生命教育和促进生命成长的重要机会。心理危机产生的原因具有复杂性，发生过程具有阶段性，危机现象具有特殊性，危机爆发具有极端性，危机发生也具有一定规律性。因此，在进行生命教育过程中，需要关注不同类别的生命个体、不同阶段的生命现象、处在规律中的独特生命个体，同时要注意识别生命危机信号和生命求救信号。     

On the Identification and Early Warning of College Students＇ Psychological Crisis from the Perspectiveof Life Education

心理危机的识别与预警既是预防心理危机发生的重要策略，也是对危机当事人和相关人进行生命教育和促进生命成长的重要机会。心理危机产生的原因具有复杂性，发生过程具有阶段性，危机现象具有特殊性，危机爆发具有极端性，危机发生也具有一定规律性。因此，在进行生命教育过程中，需要关注不同类别的生命个体、不同阶段的生命现象、处在规律中的独特生命个体，同时要注意识别生命危机信号和生命求救信号。     

Never easy to say “sorry”: Exploring the interplay of crisis involvement,brand image,and message appeal in developing effective corporate apologies

This study examines how the interplay among crisis involvement, brand image, and message appeal impacts the effectiveness of an apology in the context of a corporate crisis. To determine apology effectiveness, a 2 (crisis involvement: high vs. low) × 2 (brand image: symbolic vs. functional) × 2 (message appeal type: emotional vs. informational) experimental design was employed. The results demonstrate that the three-way interaction is significant, especially in the low-crisis involvement condition. The study concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications and directions for future research.     

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.