Perception of Ecological Risk to Water Environments

This paper examines lay and expert perceptions of the ecological risks associated with a range of human activities that could adversely affect water resource environments. It employs the psychometric paradigm pioneered in characterizing perceptions of human health risks, which involves surveys to obtain judgments from subjects about risk items in terms of several important characteristics of the risks. The paper builds on a previous study that introduced ecological risk perception. This second study employs a larger, more diverse sample, a more focused topic area, and comparisons between lay and expert judgments. The results confirm that a small set of underlying factors explain a great deal of variability in lay judgments about ecological risks. These have been termed Ecological Impact, Human Benefits, Controllability , and Knowledge. The results are useful in explaining subjects' judgments of the general riskiness of, and need for regulation of, various risk items. The results also indicate several differences and areas of agreement among the lay and expert samples that point to potential key issues in future ecological risk management efforts for water resources.     

从生态思维方式三个视角分析社会主义核心价值体系

社会主义核心价值体系已成为学术界研究的热点。如何从新的角度深入理解社会主义核心价值体系,是研究走向纵深的必然要求。通过生态思维方式,基于生态学研究理论与方法,运用开放性、预见性、和谐性的思维视角解读社会主义核心价值体系,领悟普遍联系性、永恒发展性、对立统一性等特征。运用生态思维方式解读社会主义核心价值体系,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.     

A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

“生态整体主义”对文学批评的意义

“生态整体主义”对文学批评的意义表现在文学批评标准和文学批评理论思维方式这两个方面；是对这两个方面可能存在的“中心论”与“二元论”的超越!只有不预设中心，才能平等对待不同的文学批评对象；只有将线性的、孤立的、有序的思维拓展到整体论的、复杂性的思维，文学批评才可能具有创新意味。     

生态竞争排斥法则对高校经营管理的启示

生态竞争排斥法则本是生态学的重要概念之一。我们尽管不能机械地将其套用于当前我国高校的生存、竞争、经营和管理,但它于此却启示多多,善于借鉴和运用之,定能营造出和谐的高校生态景观。     

西北农村人口对生态环境的压力与生态移民的战略选择

人口与生态环境问题密切相关,对大量数据、指标的分析结果表明,西北农村地区人口对生态环境造成的压力已经十分严重,生态移民是最重要的缓解人口压力的途径。目前生态移民实践相对于生态环境保护的要求还存在一定差距,因此,还必须进一步加大生态移民的力度,拓宽生态移民的安置途径,把生态移民与农村城镇化发展结合起来,才能最终从根本上解决生态移民问题。     

也论生态美学的哲学基础

生态美学是哲学美学的一个具体分支学科.哲学美学是以艺术为中心研究人对现实的审美关系的科学,人对现实的审美关系包括三个方面：人对自然的审美关系,人对社会（他人）的审美关系,人对自我的审美关系,而生态美学就是研究人对自然的审美关系的科学.因此,不同的哲学美学产生不同的生态美学,不能强求一律,但是“主体间性”不能作为生态美学的哲学基础,因为“主体间性”只是西方现代主义和后现代主义的一种方法论策略,不具有哲学本体论、认识论、价值论的意义,同时,人与自然的关系,包括人对现实的审美关系不可能仅仅是“主体间性”的.所以,以实践唯物主义为哲学基础的实践美学,才真正完整地以实践本体论、实践认识论、实践价值论、实践辩证法为生态美学所研究的人对自然的审美关系提供了主体性的、客体性的、主客体间性的、主体间性的全方位的研究视角.     

论科学发展观与我国生态经济学的发展

在分析生态经济学理论优势的基础上,提出一个人口、生产和消费与生态环境关系的研究框架。研究重点主要是在短期内从生产的角度进行生态补偿研究,而长期必须从消费偏好的角度进行研究。在研究方法上,应该借鉴条件价值法、生态足迹和物质流会计、新制度经济学等方法。这样才能使生态经济学走出乌托邦式的哲学范式,接近公众从而找到其动力源泉。