Where do we stand? Recent AEA member views on professionalization

The professionalization of evaluation continues to be debated at numerous conferences in the U.S. and abroad. At this time, AEA member views on the potential benefits and negative side effects of professionalization are essential as the discussion evolves. This study provides recent views on major topics in professionalization, including potential benefits, negative side effects, processes, competencies, and procedures. Results from in-depth interviews and an online survey demonstrate that AEA members view potential benefits of professionalization to be stakeholder trust, evaluator reputation and identity, while concerns about a potential negative side effect known as the “narrowing effect” (i.e., some evaluators will be alienated based on their background, competencies, etc.) were expressed by participants. These recent findings can inform the ongoing discussion of professionalization, and suggest new directions for future research on evaluation.     

Institutionalising the evaluation function: A South African study of impartiality,use and cost

PurposeThis article explores the implications of outsourcing the evaluation function in South Africa, a context where there is a mismatch between evaluation supply and demand. It unpacks the tradeoffs between internal and external evaluation, and challenges some commonly held assumptions about both.ApproachBased on experiences as an internal evaluator, external evaluator, evaluation manager, and building evaluation capacity, the author explores how each role changes when evaluation is a scarce skill, and looks at implications outsourcing has for both the organization, and the evaluation.FindingsThe purpose of the evaluation must drive the decision to outsource. However, with changing models of collaboration, there may be hybrid options that allow organizations to build evaluation capacity.Practical implicationsOrganisations are faced with a trade-off between commissioning an evaluation, and building internal evaluation capacity. To better understand each approach, it is important to consider the purpose and context of the evaluation. This shifts some commonly held assumptions about internal and external evaluations. Re-examining these assumptions will help organizations make a more informed decision about an evaluation approach.Originality/valueThe field of evaluation is particularly concerned with evaluation use. Most of the literature on this has focused on the approach of individual evaluators, and insufficient attention has been paid to the institutional architecture of the evaluation. This article considers how some of the organisational structures around an evaluation contribute to evidence use, and the case study of South Africa also shifts the focus to the central but overlooked role of context in the debate.     

Assumptions,conjectures, and other miracles: The application of evaluative thinking to theory of change models in community development

Unexamined and unjustified assumptions are the Achilles’ heel of development programs. In this paper, we describe an evaluation capacity building (ECB) approach designed to help community development practitioners work more effectively with assumptions through the intentional infusion of evaluative thinking (ET) into the program planning, monitoring, and evaluation process. We focus specifically on one component of our ET promotion approach involving the creation and analysis of theory of change (ToC) models. We describe our recent efforts to pilot this ET ECB approach with Catholic Relief Services (CRS) in Ethiopia and Zambia. The use of ToC models, plus the addition of ET, is a way to encourage individual and organizational learning and adaptive management that supports more reflective and responsive programming.     

基于神经网络的测井评价油层污染研究

利用测井资料,在剖析传统的测井评价油(气)层污染方法的基础上,介绍了利用BP神经网络这一现代数理统计新技术来实现测井多参数评定油气层污染程度的方法和技巧;以华北二连油田实际资料为例,建立了测井判释油气层污染的数学物理模型,并进行了模拟预测。结果表明:该法简便可行,对污染评价参数预测精度较高,对污染程度评价合理准确,可作为油(气)层污     

基于fused惩罚的稀疏主成分分析

本文旨在研究基于fused惩罚的稀疏主成分分析方法，以适用于相邻变量之间高度相关甚至完全相等的数据情形。首先，从回归分析角度出发，提出一种求解稀疏主成分的简便思路，给出一种广义的稀疏主成分模型—— GSPCA模型及其求解算法，并证明在惩罚函数取1-范数时，该模型与现有的稀疏主成分模型——SPC模型的求解结果一致。其次，本文提出将fused惩罚与主成分分析相结合，得到一种fused稀疏主成分分析方法，并从惩罚性矩阵分解和回归分析两个角度，给出两种模型形式。在理论上证明了两种模型的求解结果是一致的，故将其统称为FSPCA模型。模拟实验显示，FSPCA模型在处理相邻变量之间高度相关甚至完全相等的数据集上的表现良好。最后，将FSPCA模型应用于手写数字识别，发现与SPC模型相比，FSPCA模型所提取的主成分具备更好的解释性，这使得该模型更具实用价值。     

Multiple imputation for missing edge data: A predictive evaluation method with application to Add Health

Recent developments have made model-based imputation of network data feasible in principle, but the extant literature provides few practical examples of its use. In this paper, we consider 14 schools from the widely used In-School Survey of Add Health (Harris et al., 2009), applying an ERGM-based estimation and simulation approach to impute the network missing data for each school. Add Health's complex study design leads to multiple types of missingness, and we introduce practical techniques for handing each. We also develop a cross-validation based method – Held-Out Predictive Evaluation (HOPE) – for assessing this approach. Our results suggest that ERGM-based imputation of edge variables is a viable approach to the analysis of complex studies such as Add Health, provided that care is used in understanding and accounting for the study design.     

Experiences with systematic triangulation at the Global Environment Facility

Systematic triangulation may address common challenges in evaluation, such as the scarcity or unreliability of data, or the complexities of comparing and cross-checking evidence from diverse disciplines. Used to identify key evaluation findings, its application has proven to be effective in addressing the limitations encountered in country-level evaluation analysis conducted by the Independent Evaluation Office of the Global Environment Facility (GEF). These include the scarcity or unreliability of national statistics on environmental indicators and data series, especially in Least Developed Countries; challenges in evaluating the impacts of GEF projects; and inherent difficulties in defining the GEF portfolio of projects prior to the undertaking of the evaluation. In addition to responding to the need for further developing triangulation protocols, procedures and/or methodologies advocated by some authors, the approach offers a contribution to evaluation practice. This applies particularly to those evaluation units tasked with country-level evaluations in international organizations, facing similar constraints.     

An evaluation capacity building toolkit for principal investigators of undergraduate research experiences: A demonstration of transforming theory into practice

This paper describes the approach and process undertaken to develop evaluation capacity among the leaders of a federally funded undergraduate research program. An evaluation toolkit was developed for Computer and Information Sciences and Engineering¹ Research Experiences for Undergraduates² (CISE REU) programs to address the ongoing need for evaluation capacity among principal investigators who manage program evaluation. The toolkit was the result of collaboration within the CISE REU community with the purpose being to provide targeted instructional resources and tools for quality program evaluation. Challenges were to balance the desire for standardized assessment with the responsibility to account for individual program contexts. Toolkit contents included instructional materials about evaluation practice, a standardized applicant management tool, and a modulated outcomes measure. Resulting benefits from toolkit deployment were having cost effective, sustainable evaluation tools, a community evaluation forum, and aggregate measurement of key program outcomes for the national program. Lessons learned included the imperative of understanding the evaluation context, engaging stakeholders, and building stakeholder trust. Results from project measures are presented along with a discussion of guidelines for facilitating evaluation capacity building that will serve a variety of contexts.     

The impact of internal communication on strategic and economic effects in Serbian companies

This paper presents the research results in relation to examining and defining dependences and the impact of internal communication on certain strategic and economic business effects. Serbian companies were the focus of this research. The data were collected by polling 100 managers from 100 companies. Afterwards, multivariate regression and correlation was carried out in the aim of the final determination of requested dependences. This research confirmed a strong positive relation between internal communication and strategic and economic business effects.     

Family structure and the economic wellbeing of children in youth and adulthood

An extensive literature on the relationship between family structure and children’s outcomes consistently shows that living with a single parent is associated with negative outcomes. Few US studies, however, examine how a child’s family structure affects outcomes for the child once he/she reaches adulthood. We directly examine, using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, whether family structure during childhood is related to the child’s economic wellbeing both during childhood as well as during adulthood. We find that living with a single parent is associated with the level of family resources available during childhood. This finding persists even when we remove time invariant factors within families. We also show that family structure is related to the child’s education, marital status, and adult family income. Once we control for the child’s demography and economic wellbeing in childhood, however, the associations into adulthood become trivial in size and statistically insignificant, suggesting that the relationship between family structure and children’s long-term, economic outcomes is due in large part to the relationship between family structure and economic wellbeing in childhood.