教育技术系统方法在幼儿教育中的应用个案

运用教育技术系统方法开展教学活动,对于幼儿教育同样适用,在幼儿教育中使用系统方法,整合信息技术,让幼儿从小接受多角度、全方位的思维训练。现以一次成功运用系统方法的幼教实践活动作为案例,提取其中的主要步骤进行分析,抛出幼儿教育推广系统方法之砖。     

Improved model selection criteria for SETAR time series models

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we obtain the asymptotic properties of the modified model selection criteria proposed by Hurvich et al. (1990. Improved estimators of Kullback-Leibler information for autoregressive model selection in small samples. Biometrika 77, 709–719) for autoregressive models. Second, we provide some highlights on the better performance of this modified criteria. Third, we extend the modification introduced by these authors to model selection criteria commonly used in the class of self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) time series models. We show the improvements of the modified criteria in their finite sample performance. In particular, for small and medium sample size the frequency of selecting the true model improves for the consistent criteria and the root mean square error (RMSE) of prediction improves for the efficient criteria. These results are illustrated via simulation with SETAR models in which we assume that the threshold and the parameters are unknown.     

高校《体育与健康课程》构建与发展研究

通过对高校学生体质与健康状况资料的分析 ,认为健康教育应作为高校体育教育的首要任务 ,坚持以人为本 ,“健康第一”。并就《体育与健康课程》的内涵、课程体系的构建及发展进行了探讨和研究     

平教会定县实验中的农村卫生工作之考察

中华平民教育促进会定县实验区在二十世纪三十年代创立了一套由村保健员、乡保健所、县保健院组成的三级卫生保健网,并在学校卫生、妇婴保健、传染病预防和疾病治疗等方面做出了显著的成绩,在当时产生了广泛的影响,对我们今天来说仍值得借鉴。     

从心理学的角度看新时期高校德育的构建

本文从心理学的角度分析了传统德育在当前社会条件下的局限性,试从心理健康教育的角度构建新的高校德育观(生活性德育、主体性德育、协作性德育、发展性德育),并提出高校德育的三个心理层目标:培养学生确立协作型的人际关系、培养学生发展坚强和成熟的自我、培养学生构筑正确的价值评估体系。     

Pathways between education and health: a causal modelling approach

Summary.  The association of poor education and poor health has been consistently observed in many studies and in various countries. Thus far, studies examining the mechanisms underlying this association have looked at only a limited set of potential pathways. This study simultaneously examines six distinctive pathways, which have been hypothesized to link education and health and found support from previous studies. A causal analysis of education and health was performed using structural equation models. Data were used from six phases of the National Child Development Study, which is based on following up an initial sample of 17416 children who were born in 1958. The association between education and health appears to be explained by a combination of mechanisms: adolescent health and adult health behaviours for men and women, adult social class among men and parental social class among women. We conclude that improvements in population educational attainment may not automatically lead to improvements in population health, and that health policies for improving health and reducing health inequalities need to target specific causal pathways.     

坚持以人为本,树立科学的人才教育观

树立科学的人才教育观,对于现代人才教育有着重要意义,是社会和时代发展的需要。我们要在邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想的指导下,实事求是、求真务实地抓好人才教育,为国家和社会的发展服务。     

转型期中国农村区域消费水平与结构的实证分析

农村消费市场低迷是制约我国经济发展的主要因素。运用主成分聚类方法及Panel Data数据模型,结合1994—2003年的时序截面数据,对我国农村区域消费水平与结构的差异进行静态与动态分析。     

基于用户技术接受模型的政府数据开放平台研究 ——以深圳政府数据开放平台为例

从用户使用视角出发,基于用户技术接受模型,以深圳市政府数据开放平台为例,设计14个观察指标,研究政府开放数据的有用性和易用性。深圳市政府数据开放平台具有开放有序、回应及时和激励正向三大特色,同时存在创设数据场景不丰富、获取数据资源途径单一、利用成果数量少及质量不高、平台用户评价不积极及参与度低等不足。据此,提出以用户需求为导向、提升用户数字素养、构建政府部门的激励约束机制和跨部门跨层级的协同机制等政策建议。     

投资者信心和中国宏观经济波动——基于MIDAS混频模型

将投资者信心指数引入MIDAS混频模型之中,可以考察新冠疫情背景下投资者信心对于中国宏观经济波动的影响。基于投资者信心指数和“三驾马车”对我国季度GDP增长率进行预测,通过实证发现:引入投资者信心指数的MIDAS混频模型在预测精准度方面和基准模型进行比较,预测精准度高于未加入投资者信心的模型,均方根残差比值更小;在多元MIDAS混频模型之中,加入投资者信心指数的回归模型对我国GDP的实时预报和短期预测结果更加稳定,可为决策者提供更加精确的参考区间;宏观经济的波动对投资者信心指数变化反应,和投资、消费和进出口相比是最灵敏的。这为定量追踪宏观经济波动提供了一个新的视角。