复调和函数的混合边值问题

利用Ｆｏｕｒｉｅｒ方法得到复调和函数的混合边值问题解的表示式及解的存在性定理并讨论了解的唯一性．     

Adaptive Build-up and Breakdown of Trust: An Agent Based Computational Approach

This article employs Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) to investigate whether, and under what conditions, trust is viable in markets. The emergence and breakdown of trust is modeled in a context of multiple buyers and suppliers. Agents develop trust in a partner as a function of observed loyalty. They select partners on the basis of their trust in the partner and potential profit, with adaptive weights. On the basis of realized profits, they adapt the weight they attach to trust relative to profitability, and their own trustworthiness, modeled as a threshold of defection. Trust and loyalty turn out to be viable under fairly general conditions.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

从启蒙者到依附者——“17年诗歌”诗人角色的易换

回望17年诗坛,我们在大多数诗歌千篇一律的声音里发现,那个自"五四"以来就置身于"启蒙"潮头的身影,在三十年后竟然成为政策的传声筒、政治的依附者。社会状况、读者对象、诗歌审美标准、诗人心态的改变,及其病态的"先锋情结",是这代诗人们最终选择"依附者"角色的至关重要的因素。     

Generating synthetic data to produce public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data with application to the National Health Interview Survey

Small area statistics obtained from sample survey data provide a critical source of information used to study health, economic, and sociological trends. However, most large-scale sample surveys are not designed for the purpose of producing small area statistics. Moreover, data disseminators are prevented from releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas for disclosure reasons; thus, limiting the utility of the data they collect. This research evaluates a synthetic data method, intended for data disseminators, for releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data. The method replaces all observed survey values with synthetic (or imputed) values generated from a hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly accounts for complex sample design features, including stratification, clustering, and sampling weights. The method is applied to restricted microdata from the National Health Interview Survey and synthetic data are generated for both sampled and non-sampled small areas. The analytic validity of the resulting small area inferences is assessed by direct comparison with the actual data, a simulation study, and a cross-validation study.     

论海外华人网文中的感伤情结与忧患意识——以“寒胭”作品为例

海外华人的网络写作越来越普遍,大多以非功利的＂民间＂立场、＂性灵性＂写作特点与多元文化视角独树一帜。网名＂寒胭＂者写作中对家国文化传承、城市现代化进程、人性变异与现代人精神实质的追溯与揭示颇具代表性,其感伤情结、家国情怀和忧患意识体现于哀国、殇城、感人、忧世四个方面。此类写作的意义在于,当一个民族身为＂弱国＂的历史未过百年,被强势文化浸濡的现状尚在延续,物质的发展建构在一定道德文明代价的付出之上,而多数人已在现代化进程中麻痹自满时,作为愈是远离而乡情愈重的海外儿女,他们的民族危机意识对＂人的存在＂与＂现代化＂真正涵义的质询与考辨,无论是对于祖国民族道德传承,还是精神物质文明建构,均有着弥足轻重的镜鉴意义。     

弗洛伊德民族心理学思想述论

心理学大师弗洛伊德也是西方民族心理学的奠基者之一,他的俄底普斯情结、图腾与禁忌和民族群体领袖等理论,打开了民族学和心理学交叉研究的大门,对宗教思想和民族心理密切关系的阐释,补充了民族心理学的研究内容。     

中国是否拥有原油的国际定价权？——基于油价间独立性与传导性视角

在目前国际原油以期货市场定价的格局下,如何判别中国原油期货价格是否已经拥有了国际定价权是一个亟待解决的理论和现实问题。本文基于多变量单方向因果测度统计分析方法,聚焦原油期货市场定价的独立性与传导性,以上海国际能源交易中心的原油期货价格（INE）为例进行实证分析。研究发现：第一,INE在短、中期内未受到WTI、Brent等原油期货价格的因果影响,具有价格发现功能,但是尚不具备长期独立性;第二,在本文的样本区间与美元兑人民币汇率条件下,上海原油期货采用人民币计价可以增强其对WTI、Brent的影响力,同时减弱二者的影响力,彰显出人民币计价的双重定价优势;第三,WTI和Brent油价作为基准油价指标,INE作为非基准油价指标满足本文所创建的国际基准油价之间应长期相互独立、基准油价对非基准油价应具有传导性的研判标准,反映了该标准的科学性。     

基于共引网络理论的产业需求竞争网络

根据2002-2012年北京市投入产出的直接消耗系数,结合共引网络的建模思想,构建一类加权无向网络——产业需求竞争网络,并引入边权、单位权和差异性作为衡量网络中竞争关系的指标。通过研究发现:INCN-BJ网络的边权反映了产业链环节的完善程度,单位权反映了产品部门对产业系统的促进作用,差异性则区分出产业系统中需要加大产业政策指导的落后产品部门。     

论现代汉语中的“T1+（的）+T2”结构

现代汉语中存在着这样一种特殊的复合时间结构——T1+（的）+T2,T1、T2均是具有指示性的时点。在言语交际过程中, 人们常使用“T1+（的）+T2”这类复合时间结构的语言表达式,将原来具有一定距离的“事件”（包括已然事件和未然事件）拉回 到现时,从而产生加强现场感的语用效果,且站在说话人角度,具有积极的交际效果。