中国未来劳动力就业趋势研究

本文采用联合国PDPM中的“就业量 -增加值”函数法对中国未来 2 5年(2 0 0 0 - 2 0 2 5年 )中第一、二、三产业劳动力的需求状况进行了预测 ,并与劳动力供给对比 ,发现中国的高失业状况至少要持续 2 0年时间。同时本文还深入分析了失业长期存在的原因     

Trade options for a small open economy: The different impact of Taiwan exports to China and to other countries

This study aims to explore advantageous trade arrangements for a small open economy. To discover the arrangement, the fundamental question to ask is how trade affects a small economy. Due to the differential factor mobility, the two main streams of trade theory—new economic geography and comparative advantage—make divergent predictions of trade effects. This study identifies the differences in factor mobility and distinguishes the differential impacts of exports to China and other countries on Taiwan’s manufacturing clusters. Using Taiwan’s 2006 and 2011 census data and trade statistics, this study applies the two-stage least squares method to test the differential impacts. The findings reveal that the growth in Taiwan’s exports to other countries significantly increased the employment level of manufacturing clusters in Taiwan. However, such effects have not been found for exports to China. The lack of response in Taiwan’s local employment to exports to China can be inferred as a short-term exhibition of the long-run core-periphery effect. The policy implication of this study is that trade involving low factor mobility is more beneficial than that involving high factor mobility for a small open economy. Thus, for a small economy, trade liberalization that will ‘not’ attract large factor outflows from the small economy is more desirable.     

Social Vulnerability to Toxic Risk

SUMMARY

A model of social vulnerability to toxic risk from fugitive chemical releases is tested in 8 southeastern U.S. states. Using structural equation modeling techniques, population density emerged as the critical factor driving exposure to toxic risk. Results indicate that: social vulnerability varies across types and sources of toxic risk; social factors, such as race, that increase risk in some circumstances may buffer risk in others; and that toxic risk has both social justice and social welfare components. Practice and research implications include the importance of community planning and economic models that enhance environmental quality and health along with economic security.     

The Construction of College Students＇ Employment Competitiveness Evaluation Index System

随着大学生就业呈现竞争化、多元化趋势,对高校就业情况的衡量标准也应由“就业率”评价向“就业竞争力”评价转变。大学生就业竞争力评价指标体系主要包括主观就业竞争力与客观就业竞争力。硬实力和软实力构成主观就业竞争力,其中软实力包括基本职业人格、学习创新能力、团队组织能力、职业知识结构四方面,客观就业竞争力包含就业机会、就业成本、就业效率和就业质量等方面。     

劳动力就业城市选择对城市工资溢价的影响

中国逐步从定居社会转变为流迁社会,劳动力大范围流动体现在就业城市的自主选择上,该行为对城市工资溢价产生持续影响,同时城市工资溢价又影响劳动力的就业城市选择。利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,构建包含个体选择的处置效应模型,实证分析发现,中国存在城市工资溢价现象,劳动力的异质性特征和城市差异性特征显著影响就业城市选择行为;纠正劳动力城市选择的内生二元选择偏差后,发现中国特大城市和超大城市的工资溢价变大,而大城市的工资溢价消失,中小城市工资比大城市更有竞争力。中国城市体系中的首尾优势是劳动力理性选择就业城市的结果,这为中国实施差异化的城市发展政策来实现城市体系的整体优化和内部协调提供了新思路。     

税收激励与企业劳动雇佣——来自薪酬抵税政策的“准自然实验”

在经济下行压力不断加大的形势下,如何“稳就业”成为了各界关注的热点问题。本文以2008 年推行的薪酬抵税政策作为“准自然实验”捕捉企业税负的外生变化,并以2000-2018 年A 股上市公司数据作为研究样本,利用双重差分法考察了税收激励与企业雇佣行为之间的因果关系。实证结果表明:薪酬抵税政策带来了额外的税收优惠,进而促进了企业的雇佣需求,在有效排除共同趋势、预期效应、政策叠加效应以及反向因果问题后,这一结论依然稳健;异质性检验中发现,薪酬抵税政策对企业雇佣的激励效应在民营企业,成本转嫁能力较弱、劳动密集度较高以及处于市场化程度较高区域的企业中表现更加明显,这意味着企业对劳动力成本的变化越敏感,这一政策的作用效果就越好;薪酬抵税政策显著地提升了企业的经营绩效。本文的研究有助于深入理解税收影响企业行为的微观机理,对于政府利用税收政策扩大就业具有重要启示。     

Young people's views of the outcomes of non-formal education in youth organisations: its effects on human,social and psychological capital,employability and employment

This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the role of youth organisations in enhancing the employability of young people through the development of different forms of capital: human, social and psychological. Instead of asking questions about who access extra-curricular activities that may provide young people with positional advantages in the labour market and the class biases that arise in access, the article explores whether the benefits obtained from participation vary by socio-economic background. We make use of the Youth organisations and employability (YOE) database, which contains data from over 1000 young people in more than 40 European countries on the effects of involvement in youth organisations on different forms of capital: human, social and psychological. We find positive effects of involvement on all three forms of capital. The analysis suggests that the characteristics of the involvement in youth organisations are better predictors of its outcomes than are personal characteristics, and find no significant effects of socio-economic background on the reported benefits of participation in our sample. Policy implications are derived from these findings, calling for greater policy support to increase opportunities for the involvement of young people from lower socio-economic backgrounds in youth organisations and for better informing young people of the benefits of sustained involvement with youth organisations.     

我国高龄老人照料资源分布及照料满足感研究

高龄老人是一个对照料需求更高的群体,目前,高龄老人的照料完全满足感并不高。在居家养老建设不断加快的背景下,高龄老人的照料资源仍然集中在家庭内部,他们对社会服务的利用率极低;高龄老人的年龄、健康状况、经济状况、所在城乡以及照料者类别及其意愿对照料满足感的影响较大。政府及社会在提升高龄老人照料满足感的过程中,要科学规划居家养老服务,关注贫困、认知能力差和空巢高龄老人群体,重视家庭代际和谐建设,加快专业社工队伍发展,加强国际交流。     

市场导向的就业机制初探

以市场为导向的就业机制是适应于我国目前就业形势的一种有效机制。本文在分析当前我国市场导向就业机制存在的主要问题的基础上,从加强政府功能、完善法制建设、建立社会保障制度以及提供劳动者自身素质等方面,提出了完善市场导向就业机制的几点建议。     

Linking Electronic Medical Records Use to Physicians’ Performance: A Contextual Analysis

Electronic Medical Records (EMR) studies have broadly tested EMR use and outcomes, producing mixed and inconclusive results. This study carefully considers the healthcare delivery context and examines relevant mediating variables. We consider key characteristics of: (i) interdependence in healthcare delivery processes, (ii) physician autonomy, and (iii) the trend of hospital employment of physicians, and draw on theoretical perspectives in coordination, shared values, and agency to explain how the use of EMR can improve physicians’ performance. In order to examine the effects of physician employment on work practices in the hospital, we collected 583 data points from 302 hospitals in 47 states in the USA to test two models: one for employed and another for nonemployed physicians. Results show that information sharing and shared values among healthcare delivery professionals fully mediate the relationship between EMR use and physicians’ performance. Next, physician employment determines which mediating variable constitutes the pathway from EMR use to physicians’ performance. Finally, we highlight the impact of shared values between the hospital and physicians in enhancing information sharing and physicians’ performance, extending studies of these behaviors among network partners in industrial settings. Overall, our study shows that EMR use should be complemented by processual (information sharing), social (shared values), and structural (physician employment) mechanisms to yield positive effects on physicians’ performance.