实施"兴边富民行动"政策的理论思考

本文从边疆政策的历史沿革、"兴边富民行动"的历史背景、政策取向等方面,深入探讨了"兴边富民行动"政策的作用和意义。     

试析英国割占中国香港的外交政策及其特点

文章主要阐述了英国割占香港这一对华政策及其特点,首先,从中国割占一块领土(香港)本身是英国长时期对华外交的既定政策和目标。其次,英国处心积虑三次割占香港是其在华占领一地外交政策的具体实施。再次,英国割占香港的外交手段随着各个时期的具体条件和环境变化发生着相应的调整和变化。最后,在割占香港的过程中,为与其他国家争夺在华权益,英国传统的“均势外交”起着独特而重要的作用。     

环境信息披露的污染减排效应评估

本文利用我国2008年正式实施环境信息披露制度这一外生冲击构造准自然实验,基于2004-2017年我国285个城市的面板数据,通过双重差分法系统评估环境信息披露对工业污染物排放的影响。克服环境信息披露的测量困难与内生性问题,首次考察环境信息披露的污染减排效果,并借助数理模型对其影响机制进行规范阐释。研究发现,环境信息披露能够显著降低工业污染物排放水平,且该影响具有一定的时滞性和长期性;同时,减排作用会随地区环境污染程度和环境规制力度的增强而呈现递增规律;此外,机制分析的结果表明,其传导机制主要来自于产业结构转型和减排技术进步。为验证研究结论的稳健性,本文提供了平行趋势、工具变量、安慰剂等多种方法的检验结果。本文的研究在经验上丰富了环境信息披露与环境污染治理之间关系的相关讨论,为提升我国环境污染治理水平、打赢污染防治攻坚战提供有益的政策启示。     

基层政府的政策变通逻辑 ——以H县“不再生育合同”为个案

本文通过H县“不再生育合同”的个案分析基层政府在社会治理中的政策变通逻辑。政策变通不是对政策目标的背离,而是为了政策具有可行性。政策变通是社会治理中政策制定上的普遍主义和政策执行上的特殊主义相结合的体现。基层政府政策变通的初始逻辑是为了实现国家的政策目标,政策变通范围的扩散逻辑是为了尊重政策对象的习惯,基层政府不断扩大政策变通适用对象范围是出于自利动机以筹集工作经费,除了以上三种逻辑外,政策变通延续还有一个重要逻辑,即基层政府面临对象要求兑现知情选择法定权利的压力。这些多元复合逻辑驱动的政策变通不仅没有偏离政策目标,反而使取得良好的政策预期效果。     

A LOWER BOUND FOR THE SINGLE-LEVEL DYNAMIC HORIZON LOT-SIZING PROBLEM

Conventional production planning methods assume the existence of a medium- or longrange demand horizon. However, demand usually is known over a much shorter range; scheduling decisions must be made within this “decision window,” which rolls forward in time. This paper presents a new lower bound for lot-sizing heuristics in a rolling-horizon framework and compares it to the well-known Wagner-Whitin bound. The new bound indicates heuristic schedules that have costs close to the optimum. Rolling-horizon schedule costs are compared to corresponding static-horizon schedule costs (assuming the whole horizon is known in advance), using the ratio of decision-window size to the natural order cycle as a parameter. For values below unity, the rolling-horizon policy is significantly more costly. For values above one, the two policies have similar costs and actually converge as the parameter value increases.     

STOCHASTIC COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS IN A COMPETITIVE OLIGOPOLY

Previous stochastic cost-volume-profit (CVP) models have assumed that the firm was operating under either perfect competition or monopolistic conditions. This paper presents a stochastic CVP model applicable to oligopolistic competition. Each firm is assumed to maximize a linear function of the expected value and the standard deviation of its random profits. The result is a game-theoretic model that is solved using the concept of a Nash equilibrium. The results of the model are used to examine a firm's competitive strength. The model can be easily modified to accommodate a measure of risk based on the capital asset pricing theory.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING AT THE SUBUNIT LEVEL: A MULTITRAIT-MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS*

Environmental scanning activities of over 400 top management subunits in 108 European manufacturing firms provided the data base for this research. Four traits (constructs) of scanning using three methods (interest, frequency, and time) were examined. A confirmatory factor analysis approach to multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data was employed. Verification of the reliability as well as convergent and discriminant validity of the scanning scales are reported and discussed. The viability of confirmatory factor analysis in providing a precise analysis of partitioning variance according to trait, method, and error is demonstrated.     

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY AND DIALECTICAL INQUIRY EFFECTS ON PREDICTION PERFORMANCE: TASK INVOLVEMENT AS A MEDIATING VARIABLE

Critics of previous laboratory experiments comparing devil's advocacy (DA) to dialectical inquiry (DI) have suggested that these experiments produced misleading results because (1) they used subjects who had low levels of task involvement and (2) the DI treatment used was confusing to subjects and required further explanation to be useful. The present study examines the effects of four inquiry methods—expert (E), DA, DI, and DI with explanatory statement (DI+)—on subjects' performance at a financial prediction task. Results show that DA, DI, and DI + were superior to E when the state of the world differed significantly from assumptions underlying the expert's plan. For subjects with high task involvement, DI and DI + were more effective than E and DA. The results support some of the criticisms of previous laboratory research and suggest that future research on these decision aids should include task involvement as a factor.     

中国货币当局资产负债表结构与货币政策调控方式转变

货币当局资产负债表是分析央行行为与货币政策执行情况的一个重要报表。我国货币当局资产负债表科目随着经济金融结构的演变经历了多次调整,本文梳理了我国货币当局资产负债表结构及其演变过程,重新编制1999-2018年的年度可比货币当局资产负债表,通过解析各科目余额及其结构的动态变化特征,揭示统计数据背后的经济逻辑与政策实践、以及重要资产负债科目间的勾稽关系。研究发现：外汇占款和对其他存款性公司的债权是我国货币当局投放基础货币的主要渠道。过去20年中,两种渠道此消彼长反映出我国基础货币投放方式和货币政策调控方式的两次重要转变与创新。在外汇占款大幅增长时期,货币当局曾通过频繁提高法定存款准备金率和发行央行票据回笼过剩流动性。随着国际收支顺差收窄和国内经济由高速增长向高质量发展转变,公开市场操作和创新型再贷款工具将成为货币当局主动投放基础货币的重要渠道。     

Reconsidering the philanthropic foundation minimum payout policy under a “new normal”

With the increasing salience of foundations in many policy fields, and recent changes in market conditions, policies towards foundations designed decades ago seem outdated. In this article we suggest reassessing foundation payout minimums. To examine the impact of payout rates on grantmaking foundations lifespan and performance under “new normal” economics, we simulate multiple foundations lifecycles using Monte Carlo methods in diverse capital market conditions, with varied investment and payout strategies.We find that while under past market regime perpetuity seems to be a given, under more probable future scenarios, foundations might face increasingly early mortality and endowment depletion, limiting their potential impact. Furthermore, lower payout rates allow for higher lifetime grantmaking, higher mean annual grantmaking, and lower giving volatility. Accordingly, we suggest a tiered payout policy, in line with foundations’ missions and proper financial planning.