On the Evolution and Asymptotic Analysis of Open Markov Populations: Application to Consumption Credit

In this paper, we study, by means of randomized sampling, the long-run stability of some open Markov population fed with time-dependent Poisson inputs. We show that state probabilities within transient states converge—even when the overall expected population dimension increases without bound—under general conditions on the transition matrix and input intensities.

Following the convergence results, we obtain ML estimators for a particular sequence of input intensities, where the sequence of new arrivals is modeled by a sigmoidal function. These estimators allow for the forecast, by confidence intervals, of the evolution of the relative population structure in the transient states.

Applying these results to the study of a consumption credit portfolio, we estimate the implicit default rate.     

基于企业生命周期的顾客满意度研究

借鉴弗农的“产品生命周期”思想,把同一企业经历的不同市场阶段(完全垄断市场、寡头垄断市场、垄断竞争市场、完全竞争市场)作为一个生命周期,利用企业生命周期的变更,分析在企业生命周期的不同阶段,顾客满意度和顾客忠诚度的变化、顾客满意度和顾客忠诚度之间的关系;并提出两种顾客满意度测评模型。     

多级评分模型中的分部评分模型

本文通过对分部评分模型与等级反应模型、评定量表模型的比较,对分部评分模型的特色作了较为深入的剖析,从而为其在现代测验领域的应用在理论上进行了抛砖引玉的阐述。     

推进佛山市制造企业服务化的若干分析

制造企业服务化作为现代制造企业的发展趋势,已经成为引领国内外制造业产业升级和保持可持续发展的重要力量。佛山制造企业服务化的推进仍面临制造业企业囿于传统的观念和模式、制造业与服务业缺乏深度融合、制造企业缺乏创新意识和价值链延伸能力、制造企业信息化水平偏低和产业服务体系不健全等因素的制约,要推进佛山制造企业服务化必须采取一系列措施,即转变固有观念,牢固树立制造与服务融合的产业发展观;着力提升制造业附加值;完善产业服务体系,充分发挥行业协会的作用。     

Social Inclusion or Market Competitiveness? A Comparison of Rural Development Policies in the European Union and the United States

The language of EU rural development policy appears more interested in social inclusion and that of US policy more interested in market competitiveness. We seek to determine why policies directed at rural development in the EU and the USA differ. In both contexts new rural development policies emphasize partnership and participation but we find local participation is used to promote social inclusion in the EU and market competitiveness in the USA. An examination of these dimensions illustrates important transcontinental differences and similarities in rural development policies. We explore the socio‐historical reasons for differences in the commitment to social inclusion, while also noting similarities in the priority of market competitiveness.     

企业的社区志愿者活动——以日本为例

目前,随着全球化和区域经济一体化的日益推进,企业的市场竞争日趋激烈,许多不经济、危害环境和社会的事件在企业界频频发生。企业作为社会的一员,应该为社会的繁荣与稳定、为环境资源的有效利用尽自己的一份责任和力量。日本企业的社会责任活动近年来发展的极为迅速,尤其是从理念、组织和规章制度、具体实践三个方面积极推进企业的社区志愿者活动,值得我们学习和借鉴。     

针对企业信用风险规避的业务延伸策略研究

为了增加商品钢筋经销商物流业务的客户价值并规避传统经营模式经常面临的客户信用风险,提出了一种业务延伸策略。运用产品差异化的伯川德价格竞争模型,研究了业务延伸策略下的商品钢筋与现场加工钢筋的价格差异改变建筑企业的支付成本,从而影响其支付行为的机理;研究了商品钢筋与现场加工钢筋的实际支付成本差异对建筑企业支付决策的影响。研究表明：商品钢筋经销商的业务延伸策略具有成本领先的竞争优势,能从一定程度上规避企业信用风险。     

中央企业基层团支部组织制度现状分析

组织制度建设是组织建设的一项重要内容。根据当前中央企业基层团支部工作与青年工作的主要特点,通过调研显示中央企业基层团支部的组织制度建设整体上看比较完善且发挥着重要的作用,但同时也存在着不足。在组织生活制度、推优评优制度、沟通交流制度等方面都存在着开展工作质量不高、频率不高的问题,需要在把握本单位的中心工作、青年的特点和需求的基础上进一步完善各项组织制度。     

The Higher Education White Paper: The Good,the Bad,the Unspeakable – and the Next White Paper1

This article argues that reforms of higher education finance for undergraduates in England introduced by the Blair government in 2006 provided a progressive strategy for achieving the central objectives of higher education of quality (better), access (wider) and size (larger). Reforms in 2012 are a not a strategy but a collection of ad hoc arrangements. They include the good (a higher fees cap, a higher interest rate on student loans, better information and improved support for part‐time study), the bad (abolishing most taxpayer support for teaching in the arts and humanities and the social sciences, and raising excessively the threshold at which loan repayments start) and the unspeakable (abolishing Education Maintenance Allowances and AimHigher). The reforms are fiscally costly and hence perpetuate the central problem of capped student numbers, and will not stand the test of time. The concluding section outlines the next White Paper.     

基于SA8000完善中小企业员工福利的新途径——论企业社会工作的介入

随着市场经济的发展,企业间人才的竞争日益加剧,员工福利已悄然成为企业吸引、挽留人才的重要砝码,SA8000的出现又进一步强化了企业对员工福利管理的要求。构成我国经济发展基石的中小企业在员工福利管理方面存在问题,试图在SA8000的视野下运用企业社工的介入对我国中小企业员工福利管理的完善进行一番尝试。