Marginal Trust in Risk Managers: Building and Losing Trust Following Decisions Under Uncertainty

Although a considerable amount of research has examined correlates of baseline public trust in risk managers, much less research has looked at marginal changes in public trust following specific events. Such research is important for identifying what kinds of events will lead to increases and decreases in public trust and thus for understanding how trust is built and lost. Using a taxonomy based upon signal detection theory (SDT), the current article presents two experimental studies examining marginal trust change following eight different types of events. Supporting predictions, cautious decisionmakers who accepted signs of danger (Hits and False Alarms) were more likely to be trusted than those who rejected them (All Clears and Misses). Moreover, transparency about an event was associated with higher levels of marginal trust than a lack of transparency in line with earlier findings. Contrary to predictions, however, trust was less affected by whether the decisions were correct (i.e., Hits and All Clears) or incorrect (i.e., False Alarms and Misses). This finding was primarily due to a "False Alarm Effect" whereby Open False Alarms led to positive increases in trust despite being incorrect assessments of risk. Results are explained in terms of a cue diagnosticity account of impression formation and suggest that a taxonomy of event types based on SDT may be useful in furthering our understanding of how public trust in risk managers is gained and lost.     

《环境保护法》修改中的法律目的条款探究(续)

环境资源法部门应当以被修正了的,以“代内公平”、“代际公平”和“权利公平”为主要内容的可持续发展思想为其伦理学起点,以科学发展观为其政治思想基础。如果将《环境保护法》定位为该法律部门的基本法,就应当修改其法律目的条款为:本法的目的是保障与人类息息相关的生态系统和自然环境处于良好的状态,不受不可恢复的污染、破坏,实现人类、经济和社会的可持续发展,谋求人与自然的和谐发展。     

Some Recent Developments in Econometric Inference

Abstract

Recent results in information theory, see Soofi (1996; 2001) for a review, include derivations of optimal information processing rules, including Bayes' theorem, for learning from data based on minimizing a criterion functional, namely output information minus input information as shown in Zellner (1988; 1991; 1997; 2002). Herein, solution post data densities for parameters are obtained and studied for cases in which the input information is that in (1) a likelihood function and a prior density; (2) only a likelihood function; and (3) neither a prior nor a likelihood function but only input information in the form of post data moments of parameters, as in the Bayesian method of moments approach. Then it is shown how optimal output densities can be employed to obtain predictive densities and optimal, finite sample structural coefficient estimates using three alternative loss functions. Such optimal estimates are compared with usual estimates, e.g., maximum likelihood, two‐stage least squares, ordinary least squares, etc. Some Monte Carlo experimental results in the literature are discussed and implications for the future are provided.     

A Characterization of probability densities with expected log likelihood

In the class of all densities with constraints E b_i(X) = c,(i = 1,....,q), it is well known that the entropy is maximized by the density belonging to the exponential family specified by b_i(x), i = 1,....,q. Our aim in this note is to generalize theresult by using expected log likelihood.     

循环经济统计核算问题研究述评——兼论我国循环经济统计核算的可行模式

循环经济的发展呼唤建立相应的统计核算体系,文章详细评述了目前学术界关于循环经济统计核算问题提出的两种基本核算模式--绿色GDP核算模式和物质流核算模式,认为物质流核算模式是循环经济统计核算的可行模式,并在我国目前统计核算体系的基础上,提出了开展循环经济统计核算问题研究的相关建议.     

Environmental stochasticity of gompertz model with time delay

We consider the environmental stochasticity of the Gompertz model with time delay when the parameters are assumed to be described by correlated Gaussian white noise processes. The delay kernel is assumed to be exponentially decaying and the Fokker-Planck equation is obtained in both the Stratonovich and Ito calculi. The exact expressions for the first and second order moments of the logarithm of population size are evaluated and the stability of the system in mean as well as In mean-square is discussed.     

Information-statistical pattern based approach for data mining

This paper presents information theory and statistical analysis as two fundamental conceptual tools for data mining. A data mining technique based on these two conceptual tools consists of three steps. The first step is a statistical approach for discovering data patterns. The second step is an information-theoretic approach for identifying models that encapsulate the statistical behavior of the data patterns. The last step is a probabilistic approach for pattern-based inference that uncovers unknown significant event patterns.     

Tests of fit for the Laplace distribution based on correcting moments of entropy estimators

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we first consider the entropy estimators introduced by Vasicek [A test for normality based on sample entropy. J R Statist Soc, Ser B. 1976;38:54–59], Ebrahimi et al. [Two measures of sample entropy. Stat Probab Lett. 1994;20:225–234], Yousefzadeh and Arghami [Testing exponentiality based on type II censored data and a new cdf estimator. Commun Stat – Simul Comput. 2008;37:1479–1499], Alizadeh Noughabi and Arghami [A new estimator of entropy. J Iran Statist Soc. 2010;9:53–64], and Zamanzade and Arghami [Goodness-of-fit test based on correcting moments of modified entropy estimator. J Statist Comput Simul. 2011;81:2077–2093], and the nonparametric distribution functions corresponding to them. We next introduce goodness-of-fit test statistics for the Laplace distribution based on the moments of nonparametric distribution functions of the aforementioned estimators. We obtain power estimates of the proposed test statistics with Monte Carlo simulation and compare them with the competing test statistics against various alternatives. Performance of the proposed new test statistics is illustrated in real cases.     

When data justice and environmental justice meet: formulating a response to extractive logic through environmental data justice

ABSTRACT

Environmental data justice (EDJ) emerges from conversations between data justice and environmental justice while identifying the limits and tensions of these lenses. Through a reflexive process of querying our entanglement in non-innocent relations, this paper develops and engages EDJ by examining how it informs the work of the Environmental Data & Governance Initiative (EDGI), a distributed, consensus-based organization that formed in response to the 2016 US presidential election. Through grassroots archiving of data sets, monitoring federal environmental and energy agency websites, and writing rapid-response reports about how federal agencies are being undermined, EDGI mobilizes EDJ to challenge the ‘extractive logic’ of current federal environmental policy and data infrastructures. ‘Extractive logic’ disconnects data from provenance, privileges the matrix of domination, and whitewashes data to generate uncertainty. We use the dynamic EDJ framework to reflect on EDGI’s public comment advising against the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed rule for Transparent Science. Through EDJ, EDGI aspires to create new environmental data infrastructures and practices that are participatory and embody equitable, transparent data care.     

Competition network as a source of competitive advantage: The dynamic capability perspective and evidence from China

The search for competitive advantage is the defining inquiry of strategic management research. In this study, we draw on the dynamic capability lens to develop a counterintuitive view that positions competitors of a firm as an important source of competitive advantage. We argue that a firm's competitors form a competition network from which it can collect information about innovative ideas, product market, and related industries. Such information helps it calibrate market opportunities, update the resource base, and, eventually, strengthen its competitive advantage. This positive effect of competition network on competitive advantage will reasonably be contingent upon the proactive information search by the firm. The empirical results based on the survey data of 631 Chinese firms strongly support our theoretical model. This study identifies another distinctive source of competitive advantage than industry context or organizational resources as well as advancing our understanding of competition network.