中国金融业经营模式探析

对国际、国内经济金融环境发展变化分析认为,我国当前的分业经营体制既不适应金融业发展的趋势,也不符合国际潮流。因而建议根据变化了的国内外经济金融条件,适时选择金融控股型股权式混业经营模式,以确保我国金融业的持续发展。     

A Bayesian model for multiple change point to extremes,with application to environmental and financial data

Abrupt changes often occur for environmental and financial time series. Most often, these changes are due to human intervention. Change point analysis is a statistical tool used to analyze sudden changes in observations along the time series. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for extreme values for environmental and economic datasets that present a typical change point behavior. The model proposed in this paper addresses the situation in which more than one change point can occur in a time series. By analyzing maxima, the distribution of each regime is a generalized extreme value distribution. In this model, the change points are unknown and considered parameters to be estimated. Simulations of extremes with two change points showed that the proposed algorithm can recover the true values of the parameters, in addition to detecting the true change points in different configurations. Also, the number of change points was a problem to be considered, and the Bayesian estimation can correctly identify the correct number of change points for each application. Environmental and financial data were analyzed and results showed the importance of considering the change point in the data and revealed that this change of regime brought about an increase in the return levels, increasing the number of floods in cities around the rivers. Stock market levels showed the necessity of a model with three different regimes.     

改进生态足迹模型在湖北省可持续发展研究中的应用

通过调整均衡因子以及引入水资源足迹和环境负荷等对传统生态足迹模型进行了改进,并首次运用改进生态足迹模型对湖北省1997-2006年、中部六省和全国2006年生态足迹及生态承载力进行了计算和基于多种指标的分析.结果显示,与传统模型相比,改进生态足迹模型能更真实、全面地反映区域生态足迹的供需状况和可持续发展程度.     

示范性数控技术专业建设探索与实践

总结了过去几年来数控技术专业的办学经验和办学成果,找到存在的不足,并对今后的专业建设和教学改革提出了工作设想和未来展望。     

新农村建设投融资模式的阶段性分析

在结合投融资学一般原理的基础上，通过分析新农村建设的产品性质及其投资需求特点，本文探讨了我国新农村建设在不同阶段的投融资模式。     

基于博弈模型分析的科研项目管理创新研究

通过建立项目管理的静态及动态博弈模型,对科研管理部门与科研人员在具有完全信息和不完全信息两种情形下的项目管理博弈问题进行分析,分别求出了均衡解。得到的结论是：管理部门按项目不同大小确定不同比例的启动基金,采取一定的监督惩罚机制,对于约束科研人员,督促其更加努力的完成项目研究是有效的。     

公共组织BPR决策模型及实证研究

公共组织要从效率、效能和效益(3Es)三方面得以提高,必须实施机构的业务流程再造(BPR),从根本上进行体系的再设计.以满足顾客需求为目标,针对公共组织业务流程再造过程中的多目标问题,提出公共组织BPR决策模型,从定性和定量两个角度对目标要素进行详细分析,并结合实证研究,为公共组织实施流程再造提供了决策依据.     

基于Logistic模型产业集群演化稳定性研究

依据产业集群的内在关系,产业集群有非正式集群、有组织的集群、创新型集群三个层次或形态,针对不同演化形态我们分别建立了Logistic模型,并对稳定平衡态下企业共生经济效益进行了分析和对比,研究了它们共生的条件和原因。另外产业集群演化除了能够产生稳定平衡的、周期的动态行为外,还可能产生混沌的现象,单一的线性因果关系不能解释其演化规律;同时产业集群演化所具备的初值依赖性也促使演化混沌的可能产生;在集群演化混沌状态下,集群的演化发展方向、模式由集群内部企业间共生性和合作稳定性以及外部环境的影响共同决定。就我国产业集群的发展而言,要有条件有选择地引导产业集群的形成和发展,培育和加强集群内部的共生机制,应本着区域产业集群与区域经济协同发展的原则,选择适应性的产业集群发展战略。     

The duration of residence spells among Malawians: the role of established family and friend connections at migrants’ destinations

It is well-documented that established networks in a destination increase the chances of an individual moving to that destination, but rarely have migration scholars examined how these networks are linked to the duration of one’s stay. This paper examines whether the presence of kin and/or friends known at a location prior to moving is associated with one’s duration of residence. Presumably, having both kin and friends already at a destination will be associated with the longest residence spells, since migrants would likely maximise their access to diverse network resources. Using residence history data on 1069 Malawians from the Migration and Health in Malawi (MHM) Project from 2013, subtle gender differences emerge in this relationship via discrete-time event history analyses. Women who knew some friends, but no kin, prior to migrating have a significantly lower likelihood of moving away in any year compared to those who did not know anyone, or only kin. For men, knowing some friends, but no kin, does not represent a significantly lower likelihood of leaving compared to those who knew no one or only kin prior to migrating.     

地方高职院校工学结合有效模式探讨

"课程教学改革、工学结合"已逐渐成为现阶段我国地方高职院校的人才培养模式改革与发展的新方向。地方高职院校课程教学改革要求不断调整教学内容、改革教学方法、更新教学手段、改进考核方式,这就要求高等职业教育应针对性地完善工学结合下的课程教学改革模式,包括加强实验实训室建设、建立稳定的校外实践教学基地、探索产学结合、加强实习过程管理的建设。