基于Vague集相似度量的柴油机磨损类故障诊断的研究

柴油机磨损类故障诊断中的一种有效方法是运用油液分析技术，它通过对磨粒的形状、尺寸等参数的分析，实现磨损部位、磨损程度的确定．通常我们只知道磨粒的部分信息，要识别出它究竟属于何种磨粒，需要丰富的经验．因此，研究磨粒识别方法是故障诊断中的关键技术．针对模糊集的推广形式——Vague集，描述了Vague集的含义与相似度量，并提出一种Vague集的相似度量在柴油机磨损类故障诊断中的新方法．在磨损类故障诊断中，Vague集之间的相似度量是评价检测样本磨粒模式接近标准样本磨粒模式的度量，相似度量值越大，检测样本磨粒模式接近标准样本磨粒模式越好，从而根据相似度量值确定磨损故障的类型．通过实例阐明Vague集之间的相似度量在故障诊断中的可行性和合理性，这种方法能给故障诊断以理论依据．     

超高龄急性腹膜炎的诊断与治疗

目的探讨80岁以上超高龄包性腹膜炎的临床特点及治疗策略。方法收集近十年来35例80岁以上超高龄急性膜炎手术治疗的临床资料,进行加顾性分析。结果 80岁以上超高龄急性腹膜炎的原发病以胆石症为最多(占54.3%),次之是上消化道穿孔(占25.7%)。伴有并存病多;伴有一种并存病(占22.9%),二种并存病(占46.8%),三种以上产存病(占37.1%)。全组手术死亡2例(占5.7%)。结论 80岁以上超高龄急性腹膜炎的特点是病理改变重且快,临床征象轻,容易发展成感染中毒性休克,宜作简单的检查诊断,尽早手术检查。     

企业财务预警系统刍议

企业财务预警系统是指以企业财务信息化为基础,对企业经营管理活动中的潜在风险进行实时监控的机制。建立功能健全的财务预警系统可以及时发现企业财务管理中存在的问题并预先向经营管理者发出警告,有效预防和化解可能出现的财务危机,保障企业经营活动健康发展。     

Statistical analysis for negotiation support

In this paper we provide an overview of the issues involved in using statistical analysis to support the process of international negotiation. We will illustrate how the approach can contribute to a negotiator's understanding and control of the interactions that occur during the course of a negotiation. The techniques are suited to the analysis of data collected from ongoing discussions and moves made by the parties. The analyses are used to illuminate influences and processes as they operate in particular cases or in negotiations in general. They do not identify a best strategy or outcome from among alternatives suggested either from theoretical assumptions about rationality and information-processing (see Munier and Rullière's paper in this issue), from personal preference structures (see Spector's paper in this issue), or from a rule-based modeling system (see Kersten's paper in this issue). This distinction should be evident in the discussion to follow, organized into several sections: From Empirical to Normative Analysis; Statistical Analysis for Situational Diagnosis; Time-Series Analysis of Cases, and Knowledge as Leverage Over the Negotiation Process. In a final section, we consider the challenge posed by attempts to implement these techniques with practitioners.     

The utility of the DSM-5 Z-codes for clinical social work diagnosis

ABSTRACT

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) is the standard reference text used by social workers for diagnosing mental disorders. The social work profession has always had an uneasy relationship with the DSM, but for 33 years there was an opportunity to note a client’s psychosocial stressors on Axis IV. With the publication of the DSM-5, however, the multiaxial diagnostic system was abandoned, and many social workers are concerned that this change limits their ability to provide comprehensive diagnoses. The purpose of this article is to consider an expanded use of Z-codes as one way to continue including social work’s psychosocial perspective on human functioning in the diagnostic process.     

生产力促进中心咨询诊断服务的SWOT分析

生产力促进中心自建设发展以来,形成了多样化的服务业务。其中,咨询诊断服务不断衍化发展,已经成为服务中小企业的重要手段,积累了一定的优势,也存在着劣势。面对科技服务业迅猛发展的态势,生产力促进中心开展咨询诊断服务面临机遇与挑战并存的局面,通过基于SWOT分析法构建的评价模型,明确主要影响因素,进而推演出下一步发展的具体路径。     

城乡居民基本医疗保险制度整合与完善

整合城乡居民基本医疗保险制度是建立更加公平可持续的全民医保制度的必然要求和基础条件,是我国医保制度发展与完善的必经之路。虽然部分地区在整合中取得了一定的成就,但是仍存在诸多问题：政策的不明确导致管理体制混乱,医疗卫生资源配置不均衡导致整合后的不公平,待遇的“就高不就低”取向会对医保基金产生一定的压力,缴费方式的选取不慎会影响制度的可持续和社会的稳定,“两定”的整合和分级诊疗的不完善导致大医院的压力增加等问题。因此,需要理顺城乡居民基本医疗保险制度整合的管理体制,注重城乡居民医保基金的开源节流和保值增值,推进医疗卫生资源的合理配置,增强对同质医疗卫生资源的可及性,选择适合各地地情的缴费方式,实现制度的平稳过渡,加快分级诊疗的实施进度,减轻大医院的就医压力。     

Performance Evaluation of a Multi-state System Covering Imperfect Fault Coverage

Fault-tolerant networks are being used to provide more reliable network connections. Development of the fault-tolerant computing system requires accurate reliability modeling. Numerical formulations and complex models are commonly used for obtaining reliability measures. These measures are functions of component failure rates and fault-coverage. Coverage provides information about the fault and error detection, isolation, and system recovery capabilities. This research studied a system consisting three units in parallel with three types of failures namely, catastrophic, human, and unit failures incorporating the coverage factor and evaluated the various reliability measures of the considered multi-state system subject to imperfect fault coverage.     

Size and Power of Recent Tests for Homogeneity in Exponential Mixtures

The article investigates diagnostic procedures for finite mixture models. The problem is to decide whether given data stem from an exponential distribution or a finite mixture of such distributions. Recently, three new test approaches have been proposed, the modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) by Chen et al. (2001 Chen , H. , Chen , J. , Kalbfleisch , J. D. ( 2001 ). A modified likelihood ratio test for homogeneity in finite mixture models . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B 63 : 19 – 29 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), the ADDS test by Mosler and Seidel (2001 Mosler , K. , Seidel , W. ( 2001 ). Testing for homogeneity in an exponential mixture model . Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics 43 : 231 – 247 . [Google Scholar]), and the D-test by Charnigo and Sun (2004 Charnigo , R. , Sun , J. ( 2004 ). Testing homogeneity in a mixture distribution via the l ² distance between competing models . Journal of the American Statistical Society 99 : 488 – 498 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The size and power of these tests are determined by Monte Carlo simulation and their relative merits are evaluated. We conclude that the ADDS test shows always not much less and under some alternatives, in particular lower contaminations, considerably more power than its competitors. Also, new tables for the ADDS test are provided.     

分级诊疗背景下考虑病人选择行为的差异化定价

在我国医疗卫生资源并不充沛的现状下,为了解决“看病难”“看病贵”等问题,政府一直在积极探索医疗改革的方向。同时,随着人民生活水平的提高,影响病人就医选择的不仅有价格,也有医疗质量、就医体验等其他因素。此时,差异化定价——包括医事服务费的分层定价和差异化医保报销政策推动下的分级诊疗被认为是能够有效解决这些问题的渠道。通过考虑病人选择行为,研究我国分级诊疗背景下的差异化定价问题,分析分级诊疗下病人的转诊情况、病人收益、医院收益、政府支出。差异化定价可以有效影响病人到基层医院还是大医院就诊的选择,并且通过调整定价策略,政府可以探索出一条帕累托改进的路径——在各方收益都不受损的情况下,实现医疗资源的合理配置。