我国养老保险制度改革下个人福利的评价

为了比较1997年起实施的统账结合制与原先的现收现付制对个人福利的影响,首先用叠代模型对上述两种制度的运行进行比较,然后根据具体数据对两种制度下的个人福利水平进行实证分析。结果表明,影响个人福利水平的因素有个人账户收益率、人口增长率以及由劳动生产率提高所导致的工资增长率;将现收现付制改为统账结合制实际上是对个人福利水平的降低。在现阶段的中国,随着劳动生产率的提高和城市化进程的加快,工资水平的上升和城市人口的增多,使得现收现付制的养老保险制度在城镇仍具有存续条件。结合国际经验,随着人口老龄化的加剧,在将来,积累制将成为较优选择,因此,现阶段需要对个人账户基金进行多元化投资以提高个人账户收益率,从而使居民福利得到改善。     

不动产投资信托与房地产结构性缺陷问题研究——基于金融共生理论的视角

根据金融共生理论,房地产市场中地产开发商、个人投资者和商业银行间存在一种金融共生关系。通过构建三者的金融共生模型,可以得知房地产市场存在结构性缺陷。而不动产投资信托这种投资方式可以解决房地产市场所具有的这种结构性缺陷,从而可以规避房地产投资的金融风险,避免美国＂次贷危机＂式金融危机的发生。     

Postal Savings for National Development—The Experience of Japan and Future Perspective in a Globalized World

Global economic forces have been prompting the institutional changes in the public sector based on the market-oriented principles and such changes greatly have affected the postal savings system in Japan. Postal savings system’s public roles were fundamentally changed because of current administrative reform undertakings. In this article, firstly the role of collecting savings from ordinary citizens for fiscal policies was reviewed and the assessment of this public role is conducted. Secondly, abolishment of Universal Service Obligation due to the privatization of the postal savings system and the possible occurrence of Financial Exclusion are analyzed.

社会保障基金长期财务随机预测模型的比较与选择

为了测算分析社会保障制度的可持续发展,世界上不少国家建立了社会保障基金长期财务预测模型。与确定性财务预测模型相比,随机预测模型有利于阐明预测结果所面临的不确定。美国在运用随机预测模型对社会保障基金的财务状况做出预测方面走在世界最前端,我国对社会保障基金随机预测模型的研究基本处于空白。本文对美国社会保障署和国会预算办公室采用的社会保障基金长期随机预测模型进行了比较分析,对两种模型的选择给出了建议,最后提出了我国建立社会保障基金长期预测模型的一些建议。     

奇异点检测的小波方法在证券市场中的应用

本文使用小波变换模极大值方法分析次贷危机中美国证券市场的突变。研究发现,小波模极大值方法准确定位了金融资产价格异常点的具体时刻;检测出了2类奇异点,其中峰值点检测比过零点检测更稳健;这些奇异点对应了美国次贷危机主要发展阶段的重大经济事件,反应出危机中美国经济系统异常对金融市场造成的影响。文章最后进行了稳健性检验。     

我国政府财政统计核算的记录基础及虚拟计算操作的改革研究

本文突破了我国当前政府财政统计核算工作显著落后于国际标准的现状。根据《2001GFS》的相关建议,对我国政府财政统计核算的记录基础的改革路径进行了研究,详细阐述了由权责发生制改革带来的虚拟计算的内容,并制定了相应的操作方法。对于我国政府财政统计核算的理论研究和实践工作都具有重大的指导意义。但本文的研究尚处于初级阶段,未形成一套完整的操作体系,具体操作方法有待经基层工作检验并改进。     

The estimation for Lévy processes in high frequency data

In this article, a generalized Lévy model is proposed and its parameters are estimated in high-frequency data settings. An infinitesimal generator of Lévy processes is used to study the asymptotic properties of the drift and volatility estimators. They are consistent asymptotically and are independent of other parameters making them better than those in Chen et al. (2010 Chen, S. X., Delaigle, A., Hall, P. (2010). Nonparametric estimation for a class of Lévy processes. Journal of Econometrics 157:257–271.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The estimators proposed here also have fast convergence rates and are simple to implement.     

A bivariate distribution with Lomax and geometric margins

We develop a stochastic model describing the joint distribution of $(X,N)$, where $N$ has a geometric distribution while $X$ is the sum of $N$ dependent, heavy-tail Pareto components. Models of this form arise in many applications, ranging from hydro-climatology to finance and insurance. We present fundamental properties of this vector, including marginal and conditional distributions, moments, representations, and parameter estimation. We also include an example from finance, illustrating modeling potential of this new bivariate distribution.     

Putting the ‘public’ into public service delivery for social welfare in South Africa

Mubangizi BC, Gray M. Putting the ‘public’ into public service delivery for social welfare in South Africa Int J Soc Welfare 2011: 20: 212–219 © 2010 The Author(s), International Journal of Social Welfare © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of SocialWelfare. The privatisation of some essential services in South Africa has raised severe difficulties for those for whom the idea of fees for services is quite foreign and who, in any case, cannot afford to pay for services. The government has developed several initiatives to educate people about the need to pay for services provided by local government, the largest of which was the Masakhane fees‐for‐services campaign. This article describes two recent initiatives that seek to engage local citizen participation, namely, Integrated Development Plans and izimbizo (or traditional forums). These are examined along with the challenges faced by local government in promoting citizenship participation in service delivery within a decentralised system of governance. The article concludes with some recommendations on how citizen participation can be enhanced so as to make the ‘public’ visible in public service delivery and thus improve social welfare services.     

收入风险、金融教育与家庭金融市场参与

运用中国城市居民消费金融调查数据,基于因果推断的分析框架,采用倾向分值匹配法研究了收入风险、金融教育对家庭金融市场参与的影响。研究发现,收入越稳定,家庭开展金融教育的概率越高;金融教育显著提高了家庭的金融市场参与;按收入风险将样本分组后,上述结论依然稳健,且金融教育对不同家庭金融市场参与的影响具有非对称性。在对家庭收入稳定性分类的基础上,有针对性地增加金融教育的供给,提升家庭整体的金融教育水平,有利于提高家庭金融市场参与度,优化家庭金融资产配置,进而改善家庭金融福利。