中国农村老年人养老规划的现状及影响因素研究

制定养老规划是农村老年人积极应对养老风险的重要举措。利用中国老年社会追踪调查2018年数据,文章分析了农村老年人的养老规划现状及其影响因素,发现约34.6%的农村老年人实际有养老规划,约13.8%的老年人误判了自身的养老规划状况;现金储蓄是农村老年人的主要规划方式。相比农村居住的非留守老年人,农村留守老年人和进城农村老年人有养老规划的比例更高。农村老年人的经济收入对其是否做养老规划既存在显性影响,也具有通过养老观念的中介作用而表现出的显著的隐含影响。在养老责任观念的中介作用下,认同由政府和社会承担养老责任的养老观念会促使有劳动收入、子女给予经济支持和有新型农村养老保险的老年人做养老规划的可能性下降。     

China–Africa financial markets linkages: Volatility and interdependence

The China–Africa relationship has blossomed in recent years and the scale and scope of Chinese engagement and investment in the latter have expanded enormously in the last decade. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dynamic linkages and volatility transmission mechanisms between Chinese and African stock markets in recent years while highlighting the relative importance of Chinese capital flows and investments. We utilise dynamic forecasting models including Bayesian VAR and BEKK GARCH to estimate both price and volatility behaviours of Chinese and 15 selected African stock markets. Our empirical results indicate strong evidence of spillover effects in terms of both price movement and volatility behaviour, implying that Chinese and African stock markets are showing signs of integration. For price movement, bidirectional feedback relationships between Chinese and most of the African stock markets are observed, suggesting that both Chinese and African stock markets could influence each other. China has been building a strong African partnership and, therefore, increasing its trade and investment influences in the region. Examining volatility transmissions, at least one spillover effect (shock and/or volatility) from China to most of the African stock markets is reported. This suggests that the Chinese stock market now plays an influential role across African stock markets given that it has major investments in 46 out of 54 countries. Our findings show important portfolio management implications as a surge in Chinese investments provide new portfolio diversification opportunities for international investors. Policy-wise, we believe further market-oriented reforms and carefully designed and long-term development policies are required to boost capacity for development and achieve sustainable trade and growth.     

Liberalization,crisis and growth in MENA region: Do institutions matter?

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction between financial liberalization, banking crisis and economic growth by taking into consideration the role of institutions. Our sample covers 15 Middle East and North African observed during the period 2000–2013. Using a dynamic panel data framework, our findings reveal that financial liberalization contributed to improve economic growth in MENA countries while banking crisis had harmful effects on MENA economies. The quality of institutions did not have a clear impact except for rule and order and democratic institution. These results have important policy implications. To grow output and avoid the occurrence of banking crisis, MENA countries should reinforce their institutions quality by adopting good practice of governance and regulation.     

Coordinating Service‐Sensitive Demand and Capacity by Adaptive Decision Making: An Application of Case‐Based Decision Theory*

The subject of this article is the simultaneous choice of product price and manufacturing capacity if demand is stochastic and service‐level sensitive. In this setting, capacity as well as price have an impact on demand because several aspects of service level depend on capacity. For example, delivery time will be reduced if capacity is increased given a constant demand rate. We illustrate the relationship between service level, capacity, and demand reaction by a stylized application problem from the after‐sales services industry. The reaction of customers to variations in service level and price is represented by a kinked price‐demand‐rate function. We first derive the optimal price‐capacity combination for the resulting decision problem under full information. Subsequently, we focus on a decision maker (DM) who lacks complete knowledge of the demand function. Hence the DM is unable to anticipate the service level and consequently cannot identify the optimal solution. However, the DM will acquire additional information during the sales process and use it in subsequent revisions of the price‐capacity decision. Thus, this decision making is adaptive and based on experience. In contrast to the literature, which assumes certain repetitive procedures somewhat ad hoc, we develop an adaptive decision process based on case‐based decision theory (CBDT) for the price‐capacity problem. Finally, we show that a CBDT DM in our setting eventually finds the optimal solution, if the DM sets the price based on absorption costs and adequately adjusts the capacity with respect to the observed demand.     

A Framework for Measuring the Importance of Variables with Applications to Management Research and Decision Models*

In many disciplines, including various management science fields, researchers have shown interest in assigning relative importance weights to a set of explanatory variables in multivariable statistical analysis. This paper provides a synthesis of the relative importance measures scattered in the statistics, psychometrics, and management science literature. These measures are computed by averaging the partial contributions of each variable over all orderings of the explanatory variables. We define an Analysis of Importance (ANIMP) framework that reflects two desirable properties for the relative importance measures discussed in the literature: additive separability and order independence. We also provide a formal justification and generalization of the “averaging over all orderings” procedure based on the Maximum Entropy Principle. We then examine the question of relative importance in management research within the framework of the “contingency theory of organizational design” and provide an example of the use of relative importance measures in an actual management decision situation. Contrasts are drawn between the consequences of use of statistical significance, which is an inappropriate indicator of relative importance and the results of the appropriate ANIMP measures.     

农村50岁以上独生子女父母家庭经济状况分析——基于2010年对全国5县的调查

根据2010年对全国5县(区)的抽样调查,大多数50岁以上农村独生子女父母在经济生活方面并未真正实现少生快富,他们在晚年经济保障上存在很大问题。目前在养老的经济支撑上是以个人为主、子女和社会为辅的格局。多数家庭自身养老经济支撑能力薄弱,收入偏低,超过一半家庭经济收入低于贫困线,接近80%的父母不同程度感觉经济生活窘困。这些曾为我国人口控制做出突出贡献的老人养老的经济状况值得关注。     

公司持有现金的对冲作用

本文探讨融资约束下公司现金策略与投资策略的内生联动性并引入对冲需求的思想,对公司现金持有量促进投资支出的对冲作用进行考察。研究结果表明,公司面临融资约束时通过变动现金策略以避免投资计划的改变,这种联动性导致公司现金策略变化而投资策略不常变动,公司因此具有较高的现金-现金流敏感度且现金-现金流敏感度比投资-现金流敏感度更能够有效反映公司融资约束。我们还发现,现金持有量促进投资的对冲作用受到市场的认同,投资者赋予公司现金策略和投资策略更高的价值评估。     

金融机构尾部风险溢出效应———基于改进非对称CoVaR模型的研究

为准确度量我国金融机构对金融系统的尾部风险溢出,本文改进了基于CoVaR 方法的分位数回归模型。基于极值理论和ARMA-GARCH模型拟合收益率边缘分布,构建了改进的非对称CoVaR模型,从系统性金融风险贡献绝对值(△CoVaR)和相对值(%CoVaR)两方面详细考察了2002年7月1日至2018年12月28日我国42家上市金融机构的尾部风险溢出效应。结果表明:在q=0.01的情况下,不同类型金融机构对金融市场的系统性金融风险贡献有显著差异,银行类与保险类机构的系统性金融风险值得重点关注;金融机构的系统性金融风险贡献相对值与在险价值存在显著联系,自身风险最低的银行类机构具有最大的风险溢出强度,是我国系统性金融风险防范的核心对象,尤其是国有控股银行。研究结论对于有效防范我国系统性金融风险具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。     

财政体制创新与地区经济协调发展

国家实施西部大开发战略以来 ,西部地区发展速度明显加快。但随着西部大开发的不断推进以及我国新的发展观的确立 ,当前 ,除要进一步贯彻落实西部大开发的各项财政政策措施以外 ,还需要在实践中对西部大开发的财政政策作进一步补充和完善。同时 ,西部地区要以财政体制改革为突破口 ,创造好的环境 ,吸引人才 ,吸引投资 ,加快发展 ,尽快缩小与东部的差距     

内蒙古地区高校助困政策问题探析

内蒙古地区高校助困政策存在的主要问题有：少数民族预科贫困生资助政策不足;助困政策结构不合理;助困经费压力大且院校发展不平衡;助困政策对象认定困难,助困对象诚信缺失;助困政策执行力度不够。要从国家、地方政府、高校、生源地、学生等多个助困政策相关主体方面加以完善。具体是：完善高校助困政策体系;转变地方政府权益观念;加强高校政策执行主体之间的交流与合作;发挥高校自身优势拓展助困渠道：开拓建立生源地责任分担机制;加强大学生的教育与管理。