Dynamic Savings Decisions in Agricultural Environments With Incomplete Markets

We develop a methodology for examining savings behavior in rural areas of developing countries that explicitly incorporates the sequential decision process in agriculture. The approach is used to examine the relative importance of alternative forms of savings in the presence and absence of formal financial intermediaries. Our results, based on stage-specific panel data from Pakistan, provide evidence that the presence of financial intermediaries importantly influences the use of formal savings and transfers for income smoothing. We also find that there are significant biases in evaluations of the savings-income relationship that are inattentive to the within-year dynamics of agricultural production.     

Tukey-Type Distributions in the Context of Financial Data

Abstract

In one-parameter (θ) families, we were not aware of explicit hypothesis testing scenarios where maximal invariant statistics failed to distinguish the models. We start with a concrete example (Sec. 2.2) to highlight such a hypothesis testing problem involving markedly different models. In this problem, because of the absence of a nontrivial uniformly most powerful invariant (UMPI) test, we briefly suggest two approaches to test the hypothesis. The first resolution (Sec. 3.1) is frequentist in nature. It utilizes a weight function on the parameter space and compares “average” distributions obtained under the null and alternative models in the sense of Wald (1947 Wald , A. ( 1947 ). Sequential Analysis . New York : Wiley . [Google Scholar] 1950 Wald , A. ( 1950 ). Statistical Decision Functions . New York : Wiley . [Google Scholar]). In contrast, a fully Bayesian resolution (Sec. 3.2) is also included. The note ends with a series of other interesting examples involving one-parameter families where maximal invariant statistics fail to distinguish the hypothesized models. The examples include easy-to-construct families of probability models involving only a single location or scale parameter θ.     

Regression Properties for Asymmetric Generalized Scale Mixtures of Multivariate Gaussian Variables

Analytical properties of regression and the variance–covariance matrix of asymmetric generalized scale mixture of multivariate Gaussian variables are presented. The analysis includes an in-depth analytical investigation of the first two conditional moments of the mixing variable. Exact computable expressions for the prediction and the conditional variance are presented for the generalized hyperbolic distribution using the inversion theorem for Fourier transforms. An application to financial log returns is demonstrated via the classical Euler approximation. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing the regression of intraday log returns for CISCO against the corresponding data from S&P 500.     

Linking young individuals' capital to investment intentions: Comparing two cultural backgrounds

By integrating the Entrepreneurial Intentionality Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour, we explored the effects of human, social and financial capital on young individuals' investment intentions in two groups (97 English and 97 Greeks). Results indicated that human capital is directly and indirectly related to investment intentions via, first, subjective norms and, consequently, personal attitudes and perceived behavioural control, while social capital is only indirectly related to investment intentions via perceived behavioural control. In the individualistic group (English), human capital related directly and positively with investment intentions while social capital related indirectly to investment intentions via its positive relationship to subjective norms. With regard to participants from a collectivistic background (Greeks), human capital related indirectly to investment intentions via, first, subjective norms and, consequently, personal attitudes and perceived behavioural control, while social capital related directly and indirectly to investment intentions via perceived behavioural control. Financial capital was only negatively related to investment intentions in the total and Greek sample.     

Childhood exposure to the Second World War and financial risk taking in adult life

Adverse childhood experiences might have long-lasting effects on decisions under uncertainty in adult life. Merging the European Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement with data on conflict events during the Second World War, and relying on region-by-cohort variation in war exposure, we show that warfare exposure during childhood is associated with lower financial risk taking in later life. Individuals who experienced war episodes as children hold less – and are less likely to hold – stocks, but are more likely to hold life insurance, compared to non-exposed individuals. Effects are robust to the inclusion of potential mediating factors, and are tested for nonlinearity and heterogeneity. Moreover, we provide evidence of hedonic adaptation to war, as high and low intensity of war exposure have comparable long-term effects. We also document that war exposure in childhood increases sensitivity to financial uncertainty since exposed-to-war individuals are less likely to hold stocks after periods of high volatility. Finally, we shed light on the most likely mechanism in the relationship between war exposure and financial risk taking – i.e., enhanced sensitivity to uncertainty – and we show that preferences, and not beliefs, channel this relationship.     

Family identification facilitates coping with financial stress: A social identity approach to family financial resilience

Family financial stress research has typically examined negative effects of deprivation on mental health, which in turn erode financial coping. While this work acknowledges family support’s role in buffering these effects, it has typically overlooked how family identification can act to structure the experience of, and response to, economic challenge. We adopt a Social Identity approach, arguing that family identification predicts increased social support and improved well-being, which predicts more effective coping with financial problems. We explore this in two community surveys (N = 369; N = 187). In the first we show that stronger family identification and support predict better well-being, which predicts better evaluation of economic coping. In the second we replicate these findings, and also show that the relationship between well-being and financial distress is fully mediated by perceptions of ‘Collective Family Financial Efficacy’. These findings point to a more positive understanding of how family cohesion can promote mental well-being/resilience.     

Theorizing income inequality in the face of financial globalization

Based on an extended post-Keynesian model, we find that the association between the savings rate and income inequality is negative if savers’ funds are borrowed by spending households for consumption but positive if savings are channeled to investing firms for production. A negative association, such as the one that exists in the U.S., hinges on an income illusion created by an asset bubble and cheap credit. Thus, financial globalization leads consumption and income inequality to diverge, and the divergence is more extreme if lower-income groups have higher debt ratios. A positive association, such as the one that exists in China, relates to liquidity constraints faced by consumers such that consumption inequality closely follows income inequality. Our results imply that income inequality must be reduced in both types of countries to increase savings in deficit economies with negative associations and to reduce savings in surplus economies with positive associations.     

1949年国民党上海市银行的接收清理与结束

上海市银行于1929年由上海市政府设立,是国民党政府时期的一家典型地方政府银行。上海解放后,根据新民主主义经济政策的规定,被新中国政府列入接管的范围。1949年原国民党上海市银行被接收、清理和结束表明,原上海市银行的体制、机制、组织人事,更多地带有政府机关的特征,其业务经营也主要服务于原上海地方政府的财政收支及日常运作,这是该银行的基本属性使然。上海市银行与四行二局往来联系较密切,是整个官僚资本金融体系的重要组成部分。     

《劳动合同法》对企业成本影响的测算方法与实证研究——金融危机下的应急措施

<劳动合同法>实施以来,在国内学术界和实业界引起了轩然大波.2008年以来,一些企业的倒闭、搬迁,更将这部立意颇好的法律推到了风口浪尖.针对实施<劳动合同法>对企业成本影响的问题,采用分层目录抽样方法,抽取了珠三角、粤东、粤西、粤北地区13个具有代表性的城市,不同类型、不同行业共650户企业进行调研,运用成本测算直接法和间接法,对广东调研企业成本进行统计测算.测算结果显示,广东实施<劳动合同法>对企业人均人工成本的影响区间为2.54%～4.90%,用调研事实澄清了社会上流传的10%～70%的谬误.还从政府、企业和员工角度分别提出在实施<劳动合同法>过程中应对金融危机的对策,为各级政府和企业决策提供依据.     

金融中介成本与经济增长--基于中国分区数据的实证研究

很多研究表明,金融中介发展和经济增长之间关系的问题存在多种不同结论。本文以1979—2004年各省统计数据为基础,运用实证方法探讨中国金融中介成本与经济增长速度之间的关系。结果表明我国金融中介成本与经济增长之间呈微弱相关性,在某些特定条件下还是负相关。结果还表明经济繁荣地区的金融中介成本与经济增长关系比经济发展地区、经济落后地区要强．文章对此现象进行了一定程度的解释。