文明与危机：20世纪的双重遗赠

20世纪堪称人类有史以来变化最大的世纪。人类具有理性和非理性的双重本性，在20世纪的遗产中，有文明也有危机，有经验更有教训。因此，如何承继文明及扭转危机就成为21世纪人类面临的共同课题。个人的生命是脆弱的，但整个人类是坚强的。如果人类能够认识并克服自身的弱点，21世纪必将充满生机与活力。     

Nonparametric Methods in Continuous Time Model Specification

Some popular parametric diffusion processes have been assumed as such underlying diffusion processes. This paper considers an important case where both the drift and volatility functions of the underlying diffusion process are unknown functions of the underlying process, and then proposes using two novel testing procedures for the parametric specification of both the drift and diffusion functions. The finite-sample properties of the proposed tests are assessed through using data generated from four popular parametric models. In our implementation, we suggest using a simulated critical value for each case in addition to the use of an asymptotic critical value. Our detailed studies show that there is little size distortion when using a simulated critical value while the proposed tests have some size distortions when using an asymptotic critical value in each case.     

国企改革实现三年走出困境的思考

深化国企改革,三年走出困境既是机遇又是挑战,这需要国家在税收、保险、金融、价格等财经政策方面予以倾斜和配套措施的扶持,而企业自身要以现代企业制度为要求,加强管理,提高自身市场竞争力,需要国家、企业、个人三方面共做出努力,共渡难关,实现三年走出困境。     

Splines for financial volatility

Summary.  We propose a flexible generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity type of model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B -splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B -spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework for non-Gaussian observations. As the dimension of the B -spline basis is large, i.e. many parameters, we use regularized and sparse model fitting with a boosting algorithm. Our method is computationally attractive and feasible for large dimensions. We demonstrate its strong predictive potential for financial volatility on simulated and real data, and also in comparison with other approaches, and we present some supporting asymptotic arguments.     

浅析高校负债办学

负债办学是目前高校实现跨越式发展的必由之路。负债在给高校带来快速发展的同时 ,也给高校带来了财务风险。因此 ,高校负债办学既要根据学校的发展规划和对资金的需求 ,适度负债 ,又要加强负债的管理 ,提高资金使用效益     

Extremes of Markov chains with tail switching potential

Summary.  A recent advance in the utility of extreme value techniques has been the characteri- zation of the extremal behaviour of Markov chains. This has enabled the application of extreme value models to series whose temporal dependence is Markovian, subject to a limitation that prevents switching between extremely high and extremely low levels. For many applications this is sufficient, but for others, most notably in the field of finance, it is common to find series in which successive values switch between high and low levels. We term such series Markov chains with tail switching potential, and the scope of this paper is to generalize the previous theory to enable the characterization of the extremal properties of series displaying this type of behaviour. In addition to theoretical developments, a modelling procedure is proposed. A simulation study is made to assess the utility of the model in inferring the extremal dependence structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic processes, which fall within the tail switching Markov family, and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic processes which do not, being non-Markov in general. Finally, the procedure is applied to model extremal aspects of a financial index extracted from the New York Stock Exchange compendium.     

中国加入WTO后金融创新问题探讨

中国加入WTO ,将对我国的金融业带来机遇和挑战。国有商业银行不仅在体制上面临着激烈的竞争 ,而且在金融创新上必将受到巨大的冲击 ,因此 ,高度重视国有商业银行推进金融创新问题 ,在新的竞争平台上 ,构建新的运作模式 ,突出自身经营特色 ,开拓出有发展空间 ,尽快提高金融创新的能力 ,应付WTO带来的诸多挑战 ,对中国银行未来的发展举足轻重 ,本文就中国加入WTO后的金融创新面临的挑战 ,目前金融创新存在的问题进行了有益的探讨。提出了应对策略和今后发展的方向     

Research in family financial counseling

Domains of family financial counseling research are proposed in order to establish criteria for assessing research needs in this relatively new field. Identification of the research domains implies progress for an emerging profession. A survey of the family financial counseling research to date is reported. Results of research in several domains are shown to demonstrate how results from empirical studies can contribute to the theory and practice of family financial counseling.Research conducted under the auspices of Agricultural Experiment Station Research Project 01803, Family Economic Problems and Resource Management.Dr. Williams is an Associate Professor in the Department of Consumer Sciences and Retailing, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907. Her Ph.D. was received from Purdue. Current research interests include income adequacy, economic security, financial problems, and financial counseling.     

深圳中小广告企业面临的危机和发展对策

深圳中小广告企业必须找到自己的专业化发展方向,在企业经营和服务质素方面全面升级,以现代化的管理、优质专业化的服务来立足,并把积极的人才策略纳入企业发展的战略,全面增强自身实力,这是深圳中小广告企业发展的关键,也是本土广告公司和外资同行竞争的核心。     

WTO与中国企业信用

企业信用如何面对 WTO,是摆在我国当前的迫切任务。本文从我国企业的信用现状入手 ,分析了我国企业信用危机产生的根源 ,提出了要通过完善法制 ,强化全社会的道德意识、信用意识 ,树立新型的企业经营理念 ,建立和加强企业内部信用管理 ,构建和逐步完善起我国社会信用管理系统 ,从而形成有效的信用管理机制 ,从根本上治理和消除信用危机 ,使国民经济健康有序地运行