中国式财政分权的宏观经济绩效——基于限制型VAR模型的经验分析

本文从中央政府与地方政府行为角度构建了中国式分权与宏观经济绩效之间的关联框架,指出中国式分权体制下的地方政府竞争行为构成了中国经济增长以及周期性过热的主导力量。由于中国不同省份的自然历史、地理位置以及发展政策差异极大,即使是同样的分权程度也可能产生不同的经济绩效与激励效果,这也就使得面板数据模型回归结论对其设定形式非常敏感。因此,本文采用受限VAR模型来实证分析中国式财政分权对于经济增长率和通货膨胀率的作用效应,结论证实了本文的理论预期。     

Fleet and revenue management in car rental companies: A literature review and an integrated conceptual framework

This paper aims to present, define and structure the car rental fleet management problem, which includes operational fleet management issues and problems traditionally studied under the revenue management framework. The car rental business has challenging and distinctive characteristics, which are mainly related with fleet and decision-making flexibility, and that render this problem relevant for academic research and practical applications. Three main contributions are presented: an in-depth literature review and discussion on car rental fleet and revenue management issues, a novel integrating conceptual framework for this problem, and the identification of research directions for the future development of the field.     

Restaurant Revenue Management at Chevys: Determining the Best Table Mix

Revenue management has been used in a variety of industries and generally takes the form of managing demand by manipulating length of customer usage and price. Supply mix is rarely considered, although it can have considerable impact on revenue. In this research, we focused on developing an optimal supply mix, specifically on determining the supply mix that would maximize revenue. We used data from a Chevys restaurant, part of a large chain of Mexican restaurants, in conjunction with a simulation model to evaluate and enumerate all possible supply (table) mixes. Compared to the restaurant's existing table mix, the optimal mix is capable of handling a 30% increase in customer volume without increasing waiting times beyond their original levels. While our study was in a restaurant context, the results of this research are applicable to other service businesses.     

Long‐Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long‐term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation. When long‐term debt is present, the government can trade current inflation for future inflation by debt operations; this tradeoff is not present if the government rolls over short‐term debt. The maturity structure of outstanding debt acts as a “budget constraint” determining which periods' price levels the government can affect by debt variation alone. In addition, debt policy—the expected pattern of future state‐contingent debt sales, repurchases and redemptions—matters crucially for the effects of a debt operation. I solve for optimal debt policies to minimize the variance of inflation. I find cases in which long‐term debt helps to stabilize inflation. I also find that the optimal policy produces time series that are similar to U.S. surplus and debt time series. To understand the data, I must assume that debt policy offsets the inflationary impact of cyclical surplus shocks, rather than causing price level disturbances by policy‐induced shocks. Shifting the objective from price level variance to inflation variance, the optimal policy produces much less volatile inflation at the cost of a unit root in the price level; this is consistent with the stabilization of U.S. inflation after the gold standard was abandoned.     

地方政府支出与农村居民消费需求：基于1998-2007年省级 面板数据的经验分析

 政府支出对居民消费需求产生挤出抑或挤入效应是理论界最近关注的焦点之一。本文在理论诠释地方政府支出对农村居民消费需求的传导机制以及模型建立的理论框架下,通过建立地方政府支出与农村居民消费支出之间的个体固定效应变截距模型,运用我国31个省份1998-2007年的经验数据进行实证检验,结果表明：地方政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有显著的挤入效应,而转移性支出与农村居民消费的相关程度并不明显。基于理论分析和实证检验结果,本文最后针对地方政府扩大农村居民消费提出相关建议。     

中国货币政策和财政政策相对有效性的实证研究

在我国由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用。但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同,文章试图应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,并得出有关结论,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据。     

小城镇发展与财政建设非良性互动问题研究

小城镇发展与财政建设是一种动态的、相互作用、相互制约的循环关系。目前我国东西部不发达地区普遍存在着小城镇财权与事权不对称、财政性资金管理混乱、财政收支结构不合理、财政负债严重等影响小城镇发展的典型问题,从根本上抑制着小城镇财政建设和可持续发展之间的良性互动作用的充分发挥。文章从小城镇经济发展水平、财政管理体制和行政管理体制三方面深入分析原因,指出小城镇发展与财政建设非良性互动的症结之所在,提出促进小城镇发展与财政建设良性互动的改革方案。     

财政分权背景下的地方政府预算外收入扩张——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

本文对财政分权背景下我国地方政府预算外收入扩张的原因进行了理论分析,研究发现:地方政府预算外收入与辖区经济发展水平存在显著的负相关关系;与行政事业单位人员规模存在显著的正相关关系;与预算内财政支出存在显著的负相关关系;同时,在预算内财政支出既定时,预算外收入与转移支付规模存在显著的负相关关系。说明了分权改革后地方政府扩张预算外收入一方面在于弥补其财政支出的缺口;另一方面,由于预算外资金的收和支没有完全脱钩,行政事业单位改革的不彻底性,地方政府追求可自由裁量财政资源最大化的偏好等原因,进一步加剧了预算外收入的扩张。     

终身教育发展：财税激励及政策取向

为研究现行税收政策对我国终身教育发展的激励作用,采用文献法和比较分析法对现行税收政策扶持与促进终身教育发展进行定性研究,对现行税收激励政策在促进和鼓励终身教育发展中取得的积极作用以及存在的问题与不足进行评析。由此说明,财税政策对支持终身教育有促进与激励作用。同时,运用财税政策调控工具激励我国终身教育的持续发展,进而针对性提出支持我国终身教育发展的财税激励政策建议。     

Postal Savings for National Development—The Experience of Japan and Future Perspective in a Globalized World

Global economic forces have been prompting the institutional changes in the public sector based on the market-oriented principles and such changes greatly have affected the postal savings system in Japan. Postal savings system’s public roles were fundamentally changed because of current administrative reform undertakings. In this article, firstly the role of collecting savings from ordinary citizens for fiscal policies was reviewed and the assessment of this public role is conducted. Secondly, abolishment of Universal Service Obligation due to the privatization of the postal savings system and the possible occurrence of Financial Exclusion are analyzed.