财政支农支出对农业产出影响的实证分析——以湖北省为例

描述了湖北省财政支农力度和构成，并分析了财政支农支出与农业GDP比重的相关性。对财政支农支出和农业总产值序列的平稳性及相互之间的协整关系进行了检验，得出两者不存在协整关系的结论。最后，利用自回归分布滞后模型分析了财政支农支出与农业产出之间的关系。     

Debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment in emerging economies

This paper explores the debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment for 14 emerging economies during the period 1999–2016. The threshold point is identified as the level which, if exceeded, promptly raises sovereign risk to an unsustainable level. As such, we employ a panel threshold analysis to the determination of debt limit, which can serve as a distinctive feature from other studies on fiscal sustainability. Our results demonstrate that non-Latin American economies are considered to be sustainable in the short run, as their debts remain below the threshold bounds of 40–55% of GDP. However, the long-run sustainability risk may emerge from a continuous upward trend in debt paths, implying the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers. It is important to emphasize that fiscal sustainability is far more challenging for most Latin-American economies. This is indicated by their debt accumulation beyond the threshold level of roughly 35% of GDP which is relatively lower than that estimated for the other countries. Indeed, during times of high debt, emerging countries in Latin America also face higher default risk since their sovereign risk premium respond more strongly to debt rise. Their paths toward fiscal sustainability, hence, requires an immediate imposition of strict fiscal discipline to relieve the debt pressure.     

Analysis of state general sales tax policy: A complementary approach to the effects of causes and the causes of effects

Previous research and theory on state general sales tax policy provide the major factors and components of the sales tax base that affect revenue reliance and tax burden. However, previous research on general sales tax policy has concentrated on individual factors and components of the sales tax base without considering the interdependent and interrelated causes of revenue reliance and tax burden. In addition, regression-based analyses are limited in analyzing the causal conjunctures that affect revenue reliance and tax burden. Thus, this research focused on a complementary approach to the effects of causes and the causes of effects, thereby empirically examining the combined causes of revenue reliance and tax burden through a (fs) QCA analysis of U.S. state data spanning from 2007 to 2010. This study reveals that the combined causes of revenue reliance and tax burden vary as ideal types compared with the effects of real types observed in the panel data analysis. This study contributes to the current literature by examining interrelated and interdependent causal relationships with regard to revenue reliance and tax burden in a complementary manner. State governments must consider the combined effects of causal conjunctures that affect revenue reliance and tax burden.     

Financing and managing epidemiological-economic crises: Are we ready for another outbreak?

An epidemiological-economic crisis presents countries with two significant challenges, in addition to the health challenge - a growing deficit due to fiscal policy measures, and a shortage of essential workers needed to manage the crisis successfully. In this study, we propose an outline for economic readiness in case of a future crisis in general, and a pandemic outbreak in particular. Through the establishment of a dedicated income-based tax-financed budget aimed at funding government excess expenditure during a crisis, and by adopting a reserve program in the essential sector of the economy, social and economic costs can be reduced.     

新中国成立以来财税改革与户籍制度的三个 10 年变迁

户籍制度自建立以来历经 60 年的演变,形成了具有福利粘附作用的体制。 文章以财税体制与户籍制度的关系为切入点,指出财税体制约束及其福利分配安排对户籍制度是否成为问题具有根源性影响。 一是揭示了城乡二元户籍制度于 1958 年正式建立的重要背景是 1950 年代接受外部战略援助形成的军重工业内生资本增密及其预算硬约束对中央财税经济的沉重压力,这个硬约束导致二元户籍制度延续到 1980 年代初的财税体制改革。 二是论述了 1985 年财税体制改革的阶段性调整与户籍制度同步变化的三个 10 年变迁。 三是讨论了近十几年农民转户意愿明显低落的原因,即 2004 年农业税费改革以来国家财税金支持三农政策已经部分消解了城乡差距,农村户口实际的和预期的福利均大大提升。 四十年改革中,粘附了福利的二元户籍制度难以单独突破的原因,在于其与财税体制改革的不同阶段变化存在较强相关性。 新时代的户籍改革研究也需要创新,从关注过去城乡二元户籍矛盾转向生产过剩压力下城市间产业升级竞争,后者导致吸引精英、排斥低端的户籍歧视。 相应地,只有建立财税金统一的制度体系才能减少城市间福利差异。     

Has Germany’s temporary VAT rates cut as part of the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus boosted growth?

On 3 June 2020, the German government announced a EUR 130 billion fiscal stimulus package to stimulate market demand and jumpstart the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in the spring of 2020. The most prominent measure of this package is an unconventional fiscal policy in the form of a temporary VAT rates cut for six months, from 1 July to 31 December 2020. Employing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, we study the efficiency of the VAT tax rates cut for ameliorating the consequences of the pandemic recession. The simulation of the calibrated DSGE model yields a tax policy-induced real GDP increase of about 0.3% points for 2020.     

中国财政政策通货膨胀效应的实证研究

 全球金融危机使各国财政赤字激增,通胀问题日益严重,通胀治理成为各国关注的焦点。与货币数量理论相比,新近发展的价格水平决定的财政理论（FTPL）对于解释通货膨胀的成因和提出通胀治理建议更有优势。本文基于FTPL视角,选取我国1982—2011年度数据,应用状态空间模型识别政策在价格决定中的作用区制,结果表明1982—1996为M区制,1997—2011为F区制;再选取1997—2011季度数据,应用SVAR法结合货币政策研究F区制下财政政策对通货膨胀的短期和长期动态效应,实证研究表明财政政策比货币政策对通胀的影响更大,而且财政政策对通货膨胀有长期效应,结合中国经济的实际情况,我们认为货币政策不是导致近年来通胀的主要成因,抑制通胀要依靠财政政策,应实行相机选择的财政政策来实现物价稳定和经济可持续发展的宏观调控目标。     

Testing Fiscal Sustainability via Strong Convergence of Gaussian Random Variables

We prove, via the Borel-Cantelli lemma, that for every sequence of Gaussian random variables the combination of convergence in expectation and decreasing variances at fractional-polynomial rate implies strong convergence. This result has an important consequence for macroeconomic stochastic infinite-horizon models: The almost sure transversality condition (i.e., fiscal sustainability with probability one) is satisfied if (a) the discounted levels of net liabilities are Gaussian-distributed with fractional-polynomially decaying variances and (b) their means converge to zero. If (a) holds but (b) fails, the transversality condition will be almost surely violated. Hence, (a) and (b) constitute a test for almost sure fiscal sustainability.     

居民消费、财政支出与区域效应差异 ——基于动态面板数据模型的经验分析

 本文在构建了居民消费与财政支出间的动态模型基础上,分别利用全国30个省及东、中、西各地区所含省份1998～2006年的省际面板数据对分类财政支出的居民消费效应进行了实证分析。结果表明,科教文卫支出挤入了居民消费,政府消费性支出对居民消费有挤出作用,经济建设支出对居民消费的作用微弱;同类财政支出的居民消费效应在地区间显示出一定的差异性。     

Improving Revenue Management Decision Making for Airlines by Evaluating Analyst‐Adjusted Passenger Demand Forecasts*

To maximize revenue, airline revenue management analysts (RMAs) attempt to protect the right number of seats for late‐booking, high‐revenue‐generating passengers from low‐valued leisure passengers. Simulation results in the past showed that a major airline can generate approximately $500 million per year through efficient RM operations. Accurate passenger demand forecasts are required, because reduced forecast error significantly improves revenue. RMAs often adjust the system forecasts to improve revenue opportunity. Analysis of system forecast performance and analyst adjustment is complex, because one must account for all unseen demands throughout the life of a flight. This article proposes a method to account for unseen demand and evaluate forecast performance (adjusted or unadjusted) through a forecast monitoring system. Initial results from one major airline's origin‐destination market data justify the value of RMA forecasting adjustments.