中、韩企业投资税收扶持制度的比较

企业投资左右着一个国家经济的成长。现在,韩国企业的国内投资明显减少已成为迫在眉睫的问题。本文将以影响企业(设备)投资的各种因素中的税收和税收扶持制度为中心进行研究。本文认为,虽然税收和税收扶持制度不是企业在决定投资地点时的重要因素,但分析在日趋白热化的东北亚地区的竞争中,韩国和中国的税收和税收扶持制度在投资时所起的作用却也不无意义。     

Capacity rationing in rental systems with two customer classes and batch arrivals

Service differentiation is an emerging method to improve profit and to better serve high-priority customers. Such an approach has recently been introduced by one of Europe's leading rail cargo companies. Under this approach, customers can choose between classic and premium services. Premium service is priced above classic service and premium customers receive a service guarantee which classic customers do not receive. The company has to decide under which conditions it should ration its fleet capacity to classic customers in order to increase service of premium customers. We model such a situation as a batch-arrival queuing loss system. We describe the model, solve it optimally, and derive quantities of interest such as service probabilities. We further analyze it by performing numerical experiments based on the data from the company that motivated our research. We show that the potential of capacity rationing can be substantial in situations like the one we analyzed. We also derive conditions under which rationing is especially beneficial, such as under high unit fleet holding costs or in the presence of batch arrivals compared to single arrivals.     

财政政策DSGE模型中国化构建及其应用

事前模拟经济对财政政策变化的反应是检验政策效果的重要手段。本文通过国外经典模型中国化改进,并引入系统财政规则,构建财政政策DSGE模型。在有效税率估算校准与参数贝叶斯估计基础上,给出政策模拟检验应用示例。发现税率冲击效应模拟是税制改革实验的有效方法,资本税率可作为经济结构调整的政策工具,以及当前增加政府支出拉动增长作用微弱等结论。该研究也可为我国DSGE模型研究提供参考。     

Supply chain coordination using revenue-dependent revenue sharing contracts

A typical single period revenue sharing contract specifies a priori a fixed fraction for the supply chain revenue to be shared among the supply chain players. Over the years, supply chains, especially in the movie industry, have adopted multi-period revenue sharing contracts that specify one fraction for each contract period. These revenue sharing contracts are of revenue-independent type such that the revenue sharing fractions are independent of the quantum of revenue generated. Motivated by the recent events in Bollywood – one of the popular arms of the Indian movie industry – in this paper we develop and analyze a game theoretic model for revenue-dependent revenue sharing contracts wherein the actual proportion in which the supply chain revenue is shared among the players depends on the quantum of revenue generated. Our aim is to understand why revenue-dependent revenue sharing contracts are (or not) preferred over revenue-independent contracts. We also examine if supply chains can be coordinated over multiple periods using both types of revenue sharing contracts. We build a two-period model characterizing supply chains in the movie industry and highlight the implications of the multi-period contractual setting for the supply chain coordinating revenue sharing contracts. We show that supply chains can be perfectly coordinated using both types of revenue sharing contracts; however, there exist situations in which revenue-dependent contracts outperform revenue-independent contracts. Using revenue-dependent revenue sharing contracts supply chains can be coordinated while providing positive surplus to the supply chain players that is otherwise not possible under certain situations in revenue-independent contracts. We also demonstrate how revenue-dependent contracts enhance supply chain coordination and highlight their significance when the drop in the revenue potential from one period to another is moderate.     

Financial Crisis and Sustainability of US Fiscal Deficit: Indicators or Tests?

Whether or not budgetary policies are sustainable and can be conducted without creating the potential for government bankruptcy is a central question for macroeconomic analysis. In this paper, we show that indicators and tests to assess government solvency should not be used alternatively. We lay out a simple and intuitive procedure to integrate simultaneously the results from the two approaches to fiscal sustainability. Indicators are forward looking, for they are based on published forecasts, thus reacting to a set of current and expected future conditions in fiscal-policy making. Tests, by contrast, are backward looking, for they are based on a sample of past data. In the event of conflicting results, indicators may signal the occurrence of a structural change in policy, which may reverse the predictions of tests. Whether the results from indicators or from tests should be given priority in the assessment of the sustainability of public debt will thus depend on the structural stability of the historical data generating process of the primary surplus. Only in the absence of a structural break in the stance of fiscal policy, the potential warning predictions of fiscal indicators should be interpreted as merely reflecting transitory factors to be eventually reversed. An application to U.S. post-World War II historical data, from 1948 to 2016, and forecasts, from 2017 to 2027, demonstrates the empirical relevance of the proposed comprehensive approach and helps add new insights to the evaluation of the U.S. fiscal position. In particular, our results suggest that the potentially unsustainable course of U.S. fiscal policy from 2008 onwards, advocated by the use of fiscal indicators, reflects systematic—not cyclical—factors. The main policy implication is that deficit increases in the U.S. from 2008 onwards cannot be regarded as a transitory phenomenon and hence do entail an urgent need for a structural change in the future stance of budgetary policy.     

Public sector efficiency in the design of a euro-area social benefit scheme

This study examines the importance of public sector efficiency in the design of a euro area-wide social benefit scheme. Our results reveal large-scale inefficiencies in the use of funds allocated to the scheme during the great recession and euro area sovereign debt crisis that followed, with member states wasting on average 34.6% of funds allocated to it. We therefore propose that to ensure the smooth functioning of the scheme, the fiscal union will first of all have to strengthen it at the national level by improving efficiency in the use of funds by governments. We show that this can be achieved by providing a framework for the transfer of the “critical success factors” in the policies implemented by the most efficient administrations. Furthermore, we show how public sector efficiency considerations can help ameliorate the problem of moral hazard associated with a centralized insurance scheme.     

The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?

This paper examines the impact of three fiscal policy shocks on per capita real GDP and income inequality in Australia during the period 1965–2014. A small structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is constructed for an open economy for contemporaneous identification and estimation purposes. Based on the evidence of one cointegrating vector among the variables, a structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is specified for the long run. Direct taxation, indirect taxation receipts and government spending are identified as permanent fiscal policy shocks. The convergent use of two different models (SVAR & SVEC) strengthens the credibility of the results. The results have three key policy implications. First, a reduction in direct taxation receipts increases per capita real GDP without increasing income inequality. Second, a reduction in government expenditure significantly increases income inequality. Third, the adverse effect of indirect taxation receipts on income inequality is greater than the redistributive effect of government expenditure, which questions the widely held fiscal policy strategy of using indirect taxation to finance redistributive expenditure.     

Implicit public debt thresholds: An operational proposal

Gauging the public debt-to-GDP ratio a country can sustain in the medium-run without putting fiscal sustainability at risk is a question of key relevance for policy-makers. Deviations from a safe level of debt should be watched over in order to take corrective measures. In this paper we make a proposal for an operational characterization of the “prudent debt level”. To do so, we use standard methods based on Vector Autoregressions to compute the probability that the public debt ratio exceeds a given threshold, using the Spanish case as an example. The resulting probabilities are highly and positively correlated with market risk assessment, measured by the spread with respect to the German bond. Our estimation of the “prudent debt level” is obtained as the debt-to-GDP ratio that maximizes the correlation between the probability of passing a pre-specified debt threshold and the spread. The so-obtained implicit debt threshold or “prudent debt level”, which is consistent with the medium-term debt-to-GDP ratio anchor of 60% of GDP, presents several advantages as a complement to existing DSA toolkits.     

Public investment in care services in Turkey: Promoting employment & gender inclusive growth

Recent policy debates on macroeconomic tools to counteract the prolonged global economic recession point to the potential of fiscal policies with appropriate sectoral targets for simultaneously boosting effective demand while alleviating inequalities through employment generation. This paper contributes to the debate by pointing to the social care services sector –in particular early childhood education and care (ECEC) — as an effective target of fiscal spending for robust employment generation and gender inclusive growth. We use a macro-micro simulation model to examine the aggregate and gender employment impact of increasing public expenditures on ECEC services, an underdeveloped sector in Turkey versus physical infrastructure and construction, a common target of stimulatory spending. Our methodological approach combines input-output analysis on aggregate employment effects with a statistical microsimulation approach to assess distributional outcomes. We find that an expansion of ECEC services creates not only significantly more jobs but also does so in a more gender-equitable and fiscally sustainable way than the a construction boom.     

A measuring instrument to evaluate e-service quality in a revenue authority setting

Tax revenue forms the backbone of any economy. The quality of the e-services provided by a revenue authority is therefore crucial, as e-service quality directly influences the burden of complying with tax obligations, and hence affects the tax compliance climate in a country. The aim of the study is the development of a measuring instrument that encapsulates the ‘lens of a tax practitioner’ in an e-service revenue authority setting. In order to develop a conceptual framework, an in-depth, qualitative approach was used to identify a comprehensive range of service attributes and dimensions that potentially drive e-service quality in the revenue authority setting. This framework is then compared with other relevant service quality models to derive at a proposed e-service quality-measuring instrument. Findings from this study may advance the understanding and the management of the e-service quality of the e-services in a revenue authority setting.