股票收益率波动的异方差:基于交易量及异质信息分解的检验

本文在对沪市股票日收益率进行GARCH效应检验的基础上,首先以交易量作为市场上随机信息流的代理变量对GARCH模型加以修正,并由此考察收益率波动的异方差特性;然后再按照异质信息流对交易量进行分解,以此考察收益率波动的对称性。结果发现,在引入交易量之后,原本显著的GARCH效应趋于消失,且正信息对收益率波动的影响显著小于负信息的情况。此外,股票上市时间愈长,则交易量代理其信息流愈稳健,且异质信息下的不对称性也愈显著。     

基于矩阵式资金流量表的涉外交易考察

 资金流量核算是国民经济核算体系的重要组成部分,但中国已公布的账户式资金流量表不能反映机构部门间收入流量交易与金融投资交易状况,通过编制国民收入流量矩阵与金融资金流量矩阵,能够对机构部门间的收入分配交易与金融投资交易情况进行深入考察。本文通过编制1992年至2008年涉外交易国民收入流量矩阵和金融资金流量矩阵考察了国外部门参与国民收入分配、金融资金流动过程的情况,得出了一些账户式资金流量表难以呈现的结论。     

Flow and Dissociation: Examination of Mean Levels, Cross-links, and Links to Emotional Well-Being across Sports and Recreational and Pathological Gambling

To examine whether flow (Csikszentmihalyi (1990). Flow: The psychology of optimal experience. NY: Harper & Row) and dissociation (Jacobs (1986). Journal of Gambling Behavior, 2, 15-31) are experienced across sports and recreational and pathological gambling, we assessed a sample of 511 college students (256 females and 255 males, M age = 19.54) that was comprised of 14 pathological gamblers, 21 non-addicted gamblers, and 476 athletes. The findings showed that both flow and dissociation lay on a continuum of subjective experiences across activity groups. Specifically, pathological gamblers experienced lower levels of flow than athletes, whereas recreational gamblers lay in between the previous groups in this regard. In contrast, pathological gamblers experienced higher mean levels of dissociation than athletes and recreational gamblers who, in turn, were similar in this regard. A LISREL model showed that flow was positively associated with general emotional well-being, whereas dissociation was negatively associated with well-being.     

论农地经营的规模——以安徽繁昌调研为基础的讨论

本文以安徽繁昌调研为基础,讨论了土地经营规模与劳动投入和粮食产量的关系。以此讨论为基础,文章认为,在未来相当长的一个时期,中国小农经营将不仅是被迫的选择,而且也应该是主动的选择。当前全国各级地方政府正在力推正规化、大规模的土地流转,竭力引进外来资本,这对于粮食生产、农民增收、农村基本秩序维护,都将造成严重不利的后果。国家应限制资本下乡,限制大规模、正规化的土地流转。     

The estimation of gross flows in the presence of measurement error using auxiliary variables

Classification error can lead to substantial biases in the estimation of gross flows from longitudinal data. We propose a method to adjust flow estimates for bias, based on fitting separate multinomial logistic models to the classification error probabilities and the true state transition probabilities using values of auxiliary variables. Our approach has the advantages that it does not require external information on misclassification rates, it permits the identification of factors that are related to misclassification and true transitions and it does not assume independence between classification errors at successive points in time. Constraining the prediction of the stocks to agree with the observed stocks protects against model misspecification. We apply the approach to data on women from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with three categories of labour force status. The model fitted is shown to have interpretable coefficient estimates and to provide a good fit. Simulation results indicate good performance of the model in predicting the true flows and robustness against departures from the model postulated.     

国际会计准则与中国会计准则《现金流量表》比较

分析对比了国际会计准则与中国会计准则有关《现金流量表》的部分相同和不同之处;论证了现金流量表的作用及编制基础;中国会计准则的制定应坚持程序理性原则。     

秦皇岛港向国际化物流港发展的策略

本文以秦皇岛港的发展为研究对象,分析了秦皇岛港优越的地理位置和自然条件,通过建立国际化物流港口的构想,提出了相关的战略规划。     

流量可调燃气发生器压力闭环模糊控制算法

为了改进流量可调燃气发生器的调节精度,引入燃气发生器压力闭环控制,针对流量可调燃气发生器压力闭环控制特点,在压力闭环中引入了模糊积分控制,此控制算法响应速度快,超调量较小,不同工况及长时间工作下系统仍然有较好的动态特性。      

Lot sizing in workload control systems

An important basis for workload control (WLC) is the existence of functional relationships between the mean level of work-in-process (WIP) and the values of important goal variables, like average flow time, capacity utilization, etc. These functional relationships are largely influenced by the lot sizes. This means that the usual objective of lot sizing must be supplemented by considering the impact of lot sizes on the relationships between WIP and the other goal variables. Here it is shown that this insight leads to flow time oriented lot sizing models. This type of lot sizing models is analysed. It is argued that the derivation of simple rules for lot sizing is an important research topic, and a model for deriving such rules is presented. Some rules are derived from the model, assuming that the batches are processed by an M/G/1 server, and it is shown that these rules support insights based on simulation in the 1980s. Topics for future research are outlined as well.     

尤登分析法在流量标准装置比对试验中的应用及改进

本文对流量标准装置比对试验中目前普遍使用的尤登分析法(YOUDEN ANALYSIS)进行了详细的讨论,并在此基础上,根据概率论与误差理论,提出了一种基于t分布计算尤登圆半径的新方法.运用该新方法所得到的比对试验分析结果可望更加准确可靠.