中国投资环境评价方法论研究

本文在对投资环境评价现状研究进行简要评述的基础上 ,提出了应根据宏观、中观和微观三个不同层次选择不同指标体系进行评价的基本思路、方法和结果。同时 ,对投资环境的类型划分作了改进 ,并指出应深化微观层次投资环境的系统综合研究。     

Visual FoxPro中通用报表程序的设计与实现

在ＭＩＳ的应用开发中,打印报表的设计和维护占整个应用系统开发工作量的很大 比重,用 Ｖｉｓｕａｌ ＦｏｘＰｒｏ提供的报表设计工具很难满足“中国式报表”的要求．本文深入讨论了 Ｖｉｓｕａｌ ＦｏｘＰｒｏ中通用报表程序的设计思想,技术实现难点及解决办法．     

Deconvolution methods for non-parametric inference in two-level mixed models

Summary.  We develop a general non-parametric approach to the analysis of clustered data via random effects. Assuming only that the link function is known, the regression functions and the distributions of both cluster means and observation errors are treated non-parametrically. Our argument proceeds by viewing the observation error at the cluster mean level as though it were a measurement error in an errors-in-variables problem, and using a deconvolution argument to access the distribution of the cluster mean. A Fourier deconvolution approach could be used if the distribution of the error-in-variables were known. In practice it is unknown, of course, but it can be estimated from repeated measurements, and in this way deconvolution can be achieved in an approximate sense. This argument might be interpreted as implying that large numbers of replicates are necessary for each cluster mean distribution, but that is not so; we avoid this requirement by incorporating statistical smoothing over values of nearby explanatory variables. Empirical rules are developed for the choice of smoothing parameter. Numerical simulations, and an application to real data, demonstrate small sample performance for this package of methodology. We also develop theory establishing statistical consistency.     

月度工业生产发展速度指标解读：差异比较与经验启示 ——以OECD国家为例

 正确解读统计指标是准确理解和把握统计数据意义的关键所在。本文从指标的名称、定义、计算方法、空间规定和基础指标获得方式等方面,对OECD国家的工业生产发展速度指标进行了全面解读,以期从中得出经验与启示。     

A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon

Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756–68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27?per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57?per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades.     

Stress,strain, coping and social support for affected family members attending the National Problem Gambling Clinic,London

Aims were: to compare burden experienced by affected family members (AFMs) attending a problem gambling treatment clinic in London, England with that of AFMs affected by substance problems; to examine socio-demographic correlates of AFM burden; to evaluate change following an intervention designed for AFMs; and to test the assumption of the stress-strain-coping-support (SSCS) model that change in AFM coping is important. AFMs (N = 215) completed a gambling version of the short questionnaire for family members affected by addiction (SQFM-AA) which assesses stressful impact, symptoms of ill health, ways of coping, social support and overall burden. All received a 5-Step Method workbook, based on the SSCS model. The SQFM-AA was repeated three to six months later (n = 96). T-test analyses showed that baseline burden and related variables were comparable to those of family members affected by substance problems, were greater for wives and those living in the same household as the gambling relative, and were significantly reduced at follow-up. Regression modelling indicated the importance, for AFMs’ health, of reduced levels of engaged-emotional coping. Family members affected by gambling, some subgroups especially, experience high levels of burden. They can benefit from a model-based intervention, and coping change may be an important process.     

中国老年人口健康预期寿命延长还是缩短？——基于Sullivan方法的实证研究

随着老年人口数量在总人口中不断增长,中国人口的总体健康水平。特别是老年人的健康预期寿命将会发生新的变化。中国老年人口的健康预期寿命是在增长还是在缩短？老年人口的健康预期寿命在总预期寿命中的比例是在增大还是在缩小？搞清楚这个问题对于我们合理地制定老龄政策至关重要。本文尝试应用国际上最为流行的Sullivan方法回答上述问题。     

Revisiting the gap between stylized and diary estimates of market work time

Previous studies find that workers of longer work weeks report more market hours in stylized measure than in time diary, while those of shorter work weeks report fewer hours. Using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) 2003-2007, this paper attempts to explain this dilemma. I argue that market work time is composed of activity time, committed time, and constrained time. Thus, part of the difference found between the two estimates is due to the calculation of the diary estimate. I also argue that the wording of the stylized question is consequential. Some stylized questions (e.g., How many hours per week do you usually work?) might capture the mode, instead of the mean, of work time. Thus, when the distribution of work time is skewed, the mismatch between the two estimates is expected. A sequence-based identification for diary estimate and a non-parametric adjustment for stylized estimate are proposed and empirically examined. The result indicates that both methods significantly reduce the observed gap between the two estimates. I discuss the implications for future time use survey design in the concluding section.     

从地理决定论到结构主义:地缘政治研究方法的变迁

地缘政治学以人与环境之间的关系为分析基础,为人类重新认识自然环境提供了崭新的视角。随着全球化的发展、科学技术的进步、全球信息社会的初步形成,结构主义取代地理决定论将成为地缘政治研究的主要方法。     

方法运用的有效性问题

方法运用的有效性,既涉及到如何看待形而上学和当代哲学发展中的新转向,又有赖于对方法运用有效性的基本原则的贯彻。