Monitoring test for stability of copula parameter in time series

In this paper, we consider a monitoring procedure to detect changes of the copula parameter of strong mixing processes. We propose two monitoring procedures based on the cumulative sums of scores evaluated at consistent copula parameter estimates and their fluctuations. We investigate the asymptotic properties of our monitoring procedures under both the null of no change in the copula parameter and its alternative. We also illustrate a simulation study and a real data analysis.     

Parameter Estimation for Hidden Markov Models with Intractable Likelihoods

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for analysing data for complex models where the likelihood function is intractable. It involves using simulation from the model to approximate the likelihood, with this approximate likelihood then being used to construct an approximate posterior. In this paper, we consider methods that estimate the parameters by maximizing the approximate likelihood used in ABC. We give a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator. In particular, we derive results analogous to those of consistency and asymptotic normality for standard maximum likelihood estimation. We also discuss how sequential Monte Carlo methods provide a natural method for implementing our likelihood‐based ABC procedures.     

Joint modeling of multivariate censored longitudinal and event time data with application to the Genetic Markers of Inflammation Study

The Genetic Markers of Inflammation Study (GenIMS) was conceived to investigate the role of severe sepsis, which is typically defined as system-wide multi-organ failure, on survival. One major hypothesis for this systemic collapse, and reduction in survival, is a cascade of pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines. In this paper, we devised a novel joint modeling strategy to evaluate the joint effect of longitudinal anti-inflammatory marker IL-6 and pro-inflammatory marker IL-10 on 90-day survival. We found that, on average, patients with high initial values of both IL-6 and IL-10, that tend to increase over time, are associated with a reduction in survival expectancy and that accounting for their assumed correlation was justified.     

A new lifetime model with decreasing,increasing, bathtub-shaped,and upside-down bathtub-shaped hazard rate function

A new three-parameter distribution with decreasing, increasing, bathtub-shaped and upside-down bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is proposed. The new distribution encompasses some previously known distributions as special cases. Basic mathematical properties of the new distribution (including the moment-generating function, moments, order statistics properties, Rényi entropy and stress–strength parameter) are derived. Its parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. An application is illustrated using a real data set.     

Bayesian predictive distribution for a Poisson model with a parametric restriction

Abstract

Predictive probability estimation for a Poisson distribution is addressed when the parameter space is restricted. The Bayesian predictive probability against the prior on the restricted space is compared with the non-restricted Bayes predictive probability. It is shown that the former predictive probability dominates the latter under some conditions when the predictive probabilities are evaluated by the risk function relative to the Kullback-Leibler divergence. This result is proved by first showing the corresponding dominance result for estimating the restricted parameter and then translating it into the framework of predictive probability estimation.     

Rank regression in order restricted randomised designs

This paper uses order restricted randomised design (ORRD) to create a judgment ranked blocking factor based on available subjective information in a small set of experimental units (EUs). The design then performs a carefully designed randomisation scheme with certain restriction to assign the treatment levels to EUs across these subjective judgment blocks. Such an assignment induces positive dependence among within-set units, and the restrictions on the randomisation translate this positive dependence into a variance reduction technique. We provide a unified theory to analyse the data sets collected from an ORRD. The analysis uses the general framework of rank regression methodology in linear models, with some modification to our randomisation scheme, to estimate regression parameter and to test general linear hypotheses. It is shown that the estimators and test statistics have limiting normal and chi-square distributions regardless the quality of ranking information. A simulation study shows that the asymptotic results remain valid even for relatively small sample sizes. The proposed tests are applied to a clinical trial data set.     

The Bayes rule of the parameter in (0,1) under Zhang’s loss function with an application to the beta-binomial model

Abstract

For the restricted parameter space (0,1), we propose Zhang’s loss function which satisfies all the 7 properties for a good loss function on (0,1). We then calculate the Bayes rule (estimator), the posterior expectation, the integrated risk, and the Bayes risk of the parameter in (0,1) under Zhang’s loss function. We also calculate the usual Bayes estimator under the squared error loss function, and the Bayes estimator has been proved to underestimate the Bayes estimator under Zhang’s loss function. Finally, the numerical simulations and a real data example of some monthly magazine exposure data exemplify our theoretical studies of two size relationships about the Bayes estimators and the Posterior Expected Zhang’s Losses (PEZLs).     

传感论美学：一个理论的框架分析

计算机、通信与传感是现代科技的三大支柱,它们不约而同地与美学结盟。计算机美学与信息论美学方兴未艾,传感技术亦日益成为通约计算机技术与通信技术的掮客。传感论在美学的理论框架中逐渐形成了自己的研究对象、参数内容与理论目标及学科价值,传感论美学所具有的学科理论的合法性席位昭示它自身成为技术美学新成员是可能的。同时,传感技术在信息技术中的掮客身份愈来愈抽象化与审美化,信息技术的生产主体、知识构型、商业流通、编码解读的科技化亦等同于社会风险的不断增加,这些风险也暗示亟待建设传感论美学理论的迫切性与意义。     

Discriminant analysis under parameter restrictions statistical and computational aspects

In the paper, it is shown that the error rate of the discriminant analysis can be diminished when restrictions for the parameters are valid. To find suitable restrictions, at first the properties of hierarchical and other multivariate systems are investigated. Then, in a practical section, a modification of the discriminant analysis is offered that consists in decreasing the estimated partial correlations. Finally in the theoretical section, it is veri¬fied that an improvement of the discriminant analysis is attained by a suitable correctionof the positive and negative signs of the discriminant function.     

Transmuted two-parameter Lindley distribution

In this study, we propose a new distribution using the quadratic rank transmutation map named as transmuted two-parameter Lindley distribution (TTLD). This distribution is more flexible than the two-parameter Lindley distribution (TLD). The properties of the TTLD are examined, and estimation methods for the parameters of this distribution are discussed. The usefulness of the TTLD is demonstrated on some real data.