扩展卡尔曼滤波估计载波参数的算法研究

提出了一种在接收信号幅度未知的情况下进行载波参数估计的扩展卡尔曼滤波算法,该算法把信号幅度及伪码自相关的乘积作为一个独立变量和载波相位、频率一起组成状态向量进行扩展卡尔曼滤波。理论分析表明该算法本质上是具有可变增益的幅度锁定环和相位锁定环的联合估计,并给出了稳态时环路闭环传输函数和等效噪声带宽的解析表达式。仿真结果表明该算法在高低信噪比下,均具有较高的估计精度和较快的收敛速度。     

Generalised partial linear single-index mixed models for repeated measures data

In this paper, we propose generalised partial linear single-index mixed models for analysing repeated measures data. A penalised quasi-likelihood approach using P-spline is used to estimate the nonparametric function, linear parameters, and single-index coefficients. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are developed when the dimension of spline basis grows with increasing sample size. Simulation examples and two applications: the study of health effects of air pollution in North Carolina, and treatment effect of naltrexone on health costs for alcohol-dependent individuals, illustrate the effectiveness of our approach.     

Prediction of transplant-free survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients using joint models for event times and mixed multivariate longitudinal data

We implement a joint model for mixed multivariate longitudinal measurements, applied to the prediction of time until lung transplant or death in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Specifically, we formulate a unified Bayesian joint model for the mixed longitudinal responses and time-to-event outcomes. For the longitudinal model of continuous and binary responses, we investigate multivariate generalized linear mixed models using shared random effects. Longitudinal and time-to-event data are assumed to be independent conditional on available covariates and shared parameters. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, implemented in OpenBUGS, is used for parameter estimation. To illustrate practical considerations in choosing a final model, we fit 37 different candidate models using all possible combinations of random effects and employ a deviance information criterion to select a best-fitting model. We demonstrate the prediction of future event probabilities within a fixed time interval for patients utilizing baseline data, post-baseline longitudinal responses, and the time-to-event outcome. The performance of our joint model is also evaluated in simulation studies.     

A Consistent Method of Estimation For The Three-Parameter Gamma Distribution

For the three-parameter gamma distribution, it is known that the method of moments as well as the maximum likelihood method have difficulties such as non-existence in some range of the parameters, convergence problems, and large variability. For this reason, in this article, we propose a method of estimation based on a transformation involving order statistics from the sample. In this method, the estimates always exist uniquely over the entire parameter space, and the estimators also have consistency over the entire parameter space. The bias and mean squared error of the estimators are also examined by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study, and the empirical results show the small-sample superiority in addition to the desirable large sample properties.     

A maximum-likelihood estimator with infinite error

The standard error of the maximum-likelihood estimator for 1/μ based on a random sample of size N from the normal distribution N(μ,σ²) is infinite. This could be considered to be a disadvantage.Another disadvantage is that the bias of the estimator is undefined if the integral is interpreted in the usual sense as a Lebesgue integral. It is shown here that the integral expression for the bias can be interpreted in the sense given by the Schwartz theory of generalized functions. Furthermore, an explicit closed form expression in terms of the complex error function is derived. It is also proven that unbiased estimation of 1/μ is impossible.Further results on the maximum-likelihood estimator are investigated, including closed form expressions for the generalized moments and corresponding complete asymptotic expansions. It is observed that the problem can be reduced to a one-parameter problem depending only on , and this holds also for more general location-scale problems. The parameter can be interpreted as a shape parameter for the distribution of the maximum-likelihood estimator.An alternative estimator is suggested motivated by the asymptotic expansion for the bias, and it is argued that the suggested estimator is an improvement. The method used for the construction of the estimator is simple and generalizes to other parametric families.The problem leads to a rediscovery of a generalized mathematical expectation introduced originally by Kolmogorov [1933. Foundations of the Theory of Probability, second ed. Chelsea Publishing Company (1956)]. A brief discussion of this, and some related integrals, is provided. It is in particular argued that the principal value expectation provides a reasonable location parameter in cases where it exists. This does not hold generally for expectations interpreted in the sense given by the Schwartz theory of generalized functions.     

Non‐parametric estimation for time-dependent AUC

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is one of the commonly used measure to evaluate or compare the predictive ability of markers to the disease status. Motivated by an angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) study, our objective is mainly to evaluate and compare the performance of several baseline plasma levels in the prediction of CAD-related vital status over time. Based on censored survival data, the non-parametric estimators are proposed for the time-dependent AUC. The limiting Gaussian processes of the estimators and the estimated asymptotic variance–covariance functions enable us to further construct confidence bands and develop testing procedures. Applications and finite sample properties of the proposed estimation methods and inference procedures are demonstrated through the CAD-related death data from the British Columbia Vital Statistics Agency and Monte Carlo simulations.     

Large deviations for Bayesian estimators in first-order autoregressive processes

In this paper we consider first-order autoregressive processes and we allow either centered Normal or exponential innovations. We prove large deviation principles for posterior distributions on the unknown parameter and, motivated by potential applications in risk theory, we also prove large deviation principles for Bayesian estimators of Lundberg's parameter.     

基于粗糙集约简的食品冷链物流系统协同模型研究

本文综合考虑了食品冷链物流及物流协同理论,建立了食品冷链物流系统的协同模型,运用序参量对协同模型进行分析,并创造性的利用基于信息熵的粗糙集约简方法定量求解序参量,通过实证分析验证了模型的有效性及实用性。     

基于时间延迟理论的预防维修模型及案例研究

本文旨在解决设备维修决策过程中预防维修检查数据缺乏情况下如何确定出合理的维修间隔期问题。首先,通过预防维修技术经济分析,提出了有关维修间隔期和总的停机时间之间关系的预防维修模型。其次,根据时间延迟维修理论,利用故障记录数据和预防维修检查数据的估计值,建立了统计模型并用来计算维修间隔期内故障次数的期望值。计算机仿真检验证明统计模型正确后,采用最大拟然法估计有关参数,这些参数包括缺陷发生率、时间延迟分布、检查出缺陷的概率等。最后是案例分析,应用估计参数和预防维修模型,计算出最佳的维修间隔期。     

建筑物接地及布线工艺的改进与优化

接地是为了保护人身的安全,设备的正常运行与不遭破坏。在电力系统中、各种设 备上和预防雷电事故的技术里,都被广泛的使用。在今天,城镇化建设不断推进,人口集中程度更 大,建筑楼层普遍提高,各种强功能高价值的设备在办公室、家庭等场所广泛使用的大发展时期,合 理选用接地方式、接地体、布线工艺和确定接地参数对建筑物来说,是至关重要的。本文就是结合实 际,对建筑物中接地方式、接地体、布线工艺及接地参数的选择进行改进优化分析。