Semi-parametric tail inference through probability-weighted moments

In this paper, for heavy-tailed models, and working with the sample of the k largest observations, we present probability weighted moments (PWM) estimators for the first order tail parameters. Under regular variation conditions on the right-tail of the underlying distribution function F we prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of these estimators. Their performance, for finite sample sizes, is illustrated through a small-scale Monte Carlo simulation.     

效率参数不可观测下的SaaS云外包合约研究

客户企业在实施SaaS（软件即服务,Software as a Service）云外包时,面临因效率参数不可观测所引发的云服务提供商（Cloud Service Provider,CSP）道德风险问题。针对该问题,以激励机制设计方法为基础,以客户企业期望收益最大化为目标,在服务产出为公共信息,而效率参数信息为CSP私人信息下研究如何通过外包合约的设计诱使CSP显示出真实的信息,并付出最优的努力水平。研究表明,最优努力水平、服务报酬支付是效率参数的减函数;客户企业向CSP提供的最优合约可以用线性合约表示;在由固定服务报酬及收益共享构成的线性合约中,效率参数与固定服务报酬支付正相关,与收益共享系数负相关。     

Investigating dependence between frequency and severity via simple generalized linear models

Recently, a body of literature proposed new models relaxing a widely-used but controversial assumption of independence between claim frequency and severity in non-life insurance rate making. This paper critically reviews a generalized linear model approach, where a dependence between claim frequency and severity is introduced by treating frequency as a covariate in a regression model for severity. As an extension of this approach, we propose a dispersion model for severity. For this model, the information loss caused by using average severity rather than individual severity is examined in detail and the parameter estimators suffering from low efficiency are identified. We also provide analytical solutions for the aggregate sum to help rate making. We show that the simple functional form used in current research may not properly reflect the real underlying dependence structure. A real data analysis is given to explain our analytical findings.     

用参数摄动法求超越方程的大根

用参数摄动法求得了超越方程的大根的近似值.     

一类新平均函数的单调性

本文将对数平均推广为单参数平均函数通过讨论Z（X）的单调性,改进了基本不等式,推广了近年来的一些不等式,并揭示了这些不等式之间的关系。     

A Note on Consistent Estimation of Multivariate Parameters in Ergodic Diffusion Models

Certain aspects of maximum likelihood estimation for ergodic diffusions are studied via recently developed empirical process theory for martingales. This approach enables us to remove some undesirable regularity conditions that usually appear in the statistical literature on ergodic diffusions. In particular, dimension dependent conditions for the existence of a continuous likelihood and for consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator turn out to be unnecessary.     

Approximate Inference for the Factor Loading of a Simple Factor Analysis Model

We study a factor analysis model with two normally distributed observations and one factor. Two approximate conditional inference procedures for the factor loading are developed. The first proposal is a very simple procedure but it is not very accurate. The second proposal gives extremely accurate results even for very small sample size. Moreover, the calculations require only the signed log-likelihood ratio statistic and a measure of the standardized maximum likelihood departure. Simulations are used to study the accuracy of the proposed procedures.     

A diagnostic for selecting the threshold in extreme value analysis

A new approach is suggested for choosing the threshold when fitting the Hill estimator of a tail exponent to extreme value data. Our method is based on an easily computed diagnostic, which in turn is founded directly on the Hill estimator itself, 'symmetrized' to remove the effect of the tail exponent but designed to emphasize biases in estimates of that exponent. The attractions of the method are its accuracy, its simplicity and the generality with which it applies. This generality implies that the technique has somewhat different goals from more conventional approaches, which are designed to accommodate the minor component of a postulated two-component Pareto mixture. Our approach does not rely on the second component being Pareto distributed. Nevertheless, in the conventional setting it performs competitively with recently proposed methods, and in more general cases it achieves optimal rates of convergence. A by-product of our development is a very simple and practicable exponential approximation to the distribution of the Hill estimator under departures from the Pareto distribution.     

广义经济学

回顾了火用经济学的历史及发展 ,通过对热力学系统与经济学系统的相似性比较 ,将广义火用的概念引入到经济学系统中来 ,并由此建立资本品质的概念 ,进而建立起以核算资本火用参量为基准的新型经济学理论。对广义火用经济学的若干状态参量的建立及定义作了初步探讨。     

小型光泵腔式NH3分子远红外激光器工作参数优化的实验研究

实验上采用金属网栅耦合的小型腔式NH3 分子远红外激光器 ,用TEA -CO2 激光器的 1 0R(8)和 9R(1 6)谱线作泵浦 ,获得了 2 81 μm和 90 .4μm的远红外激光 ,并对该激光器工作参数的优化进行了系统的实验研究