信任危机、逆向选择与品牌重建——来自网贷之家的经验证据

以中国P2P行业信任危机为背景,借助网贷之家公布的数据,利用面板固定效应模型研究信任缺失情形下的逆向选择问题以及政府和行业协会重建品牌信任的效果,结果表明:P2P行业信任危机下的平台旨在通过建设品牌形象来吸引投资人与借款人的做法是徒劳的,信任缺失导致合规平台的诚信经营并不为公众所认可,长此以往这些平台很可能会退出市场,进而引发逆向选择问题;自上而下的制度建设在重建品牌信任中取得了可喜的成绩,有效缓解并逆转了P2P行业的逆向选择问题,且市场整治初见成效。此研究成果对于目前正在进行的P2P行业整顿具有十分现实的指导意义。     

“海丝”战略背景下闽台海洋经济融合发展研究

党中央在新时期作出的共建21世纪海上丝绸之路的战略决策,对深化区域合作、推动全球经济发展具有重大的影响,更为闽台海洋经济融合发展提供了难得机遇。系统梳理和回顾改革开放以来闽台海洋经济合作的历程及成效,分析21世纪海上丝绸之路战略背景下闽台海洋经济融合发展的新机遇,提出闽台两地应充分发挥优势互补,坚持互利共赢原则,全面加强海洋渔业、航港造船产业、海洋科技产业和海洋观光游憩业的融合发展,共同推动闽台海洋开发合作向纵深发展。     

后文学产业链:无形文化资产的价值实现路径

通过解剖典型的个案,概括出作为无形文化资产(遗产)的文学,从无形转为有形的物化形态,衍生为产业链,从而走向当代价值实现的三个重要前提条件;并论述了“后文学产业链”的三级资源化过程,以及被资源化之后,传统文学活动系统中的作家、作品、读者三大要素的地位和功能的蜕变,分析了文学作为审美意识形态具有“不可资源化”的特质。     

基于ART2模型的信用风险评估

自适应共振模型是为了能够分类任意次序模拟输入模式而设计的,它可以按任意精度对输入的模拟观察矢量进行分类,较好地解决了前稳定性和灵活性问题,同时能够避免对网络先前所学的学习模式修改。本文将ART2模型应用于信用风险评估,通过实证比较研究,结果显示应用自适应共振模型进行信用风险评估在精度和准确性上,都优于其他神经网络模型和统计方法。     

Variance estimation based on blocked 3×2 cross-validation in high-dimensional linear regression

In high-dimensional linear regression, the dimension of variables is always greater than the sample size. In this situation, the traditional variance estimation technique based on ordinary least squares constantly exhibits a high bias even under sparsity assumption. One of the major reasons is the high spurious correlation between unobserved realized noise and several predictors. To alleviate this problem, a refitted cross-validation (RCV) method has been proposed in the literature. However, for a complicated model, the RCV exhibits a lower probability that the selected model includes the true model in case of finite samples. This phenomenon may easily result in a large bias of variance estimation. Thus, a model selection method based on the ranks of the frequency of occurrences in six votes from a blocked 3×2 cross-validation is proposed in this study. The proposed method has a considerably larger probability of including the true model in practice than the RCV method. The variance estimation obtained using the model selected by the proposed method also shows a lower bias and a smaller variance. Furthermore, theoretical analysis proves the asymptotic normality property of the proposed variance estimation.     

L2句子加工心理机制的ERPs研究及问题思考

国内外对L2句子加工的研究存在着较大区别。国外偏重于探讨句子加工的心理机制本身,而国内不仅探讨句子加工的心理机制本身,而且还注重探讨句子加工的心理机制所说明的问题,分析L2句子加工是否接近或相似于L1句子加工。目前,该领域的研究主要存在三种主要流派:模块说、交互说和平行说。多数学者认为L2句子加工是句法和语义加工交织的过程,即多数人接受了交互说。少数学者认为语义加工优先于句法加工。至于平行说,最近L2句子加工研究鲜有成果支持此理论。     

P2P技术与网络传播的未来

伴随着P2P技术和商业应用的发展,P2P技术对于未来网络传播可能产生的影响也成为一个令 人关注的问题。从目前来看,P2P技术对于网络传播的影响主要包括以下几方面:网络信息共享与 利用的方式与程度将进一步改变;围绕P2P技术思想展开的软件与信息产品开发,将在一定程度上 决定作为媒体的网络的未来面貌;P2P带来的去中心化特点将使互联网管理的难度进一步增加; P2P可能成为媒体间的交流与合作的新平台,也可能加速媒体形态的演化。从总体看,P2P技术未 来的社会影响程度,取决于政治、经济等各种力量的博弈结果,而这也将最终影响着互联网的未来。     

A dimensionality reduction method of continuous dependent variables based supervised Laplacian eigenmaps

Dimensionality reduction is one of the important preprocessing steps in high-dimensional data analysis. In this paper we propose a supervised manifold learning method, it makes use of the information of continuous dependent variables to distinguish intrinsic neighbourhood and extrinsic neighbourhood of data samples, and construct two graphs according to these two kinds of neighbourhoods. Following the idea of Laplacian eigenmaps, we reveal that on the low-dimensional manifold the neighbourhood structure can be preserved or even improved. Our approach has two important characteristics: (i) it uses dependent variables to find an informative low-dimensional projection which is robust to noisy independent variables and (ii) the objective function simultaneously enlarges the distance between dissimilar samples and pushes similar samples close to each other according to the graph constructed with the help of continuous dependent variables. Our experiments demonstrate that the effectiveness of our method is over their traditional rivals.     

Lower bound of average centered L2-discrepancy for U-type designs

Uniform designs are widely used in various scientific investigations and industrial applications. By considering all possible level permutation of the factors, a connection between average centered L₂-discrepancy and generalized wordlength pattern for asymmetrical fractional factorial designs is derived. Moreover, we present new lower bounds to the average centered L₂-discrepancy for symmetrical and asymmetrical U-type designs. For illustration of the theoretical results, the lower bounds for symmetrical and asymmetrical U-type designs are tabulated, and numerical results indicate that our lower bounds behave well and can be recommended for use in practice.     

On Hotelling’s T2 test in a special paired sample case

In a special paired sample case, Hotelling’s T² test based on the differences of the paired random vectors is the likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the paired random vectors have the same mean; with respect to a special group of affine linear transformations it is the uniformly most powerful invariant test for the general alternative of a difference in mean. We present an elementary straightforward proof of this result. The likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the covariance structure is of the assumed special form is derived and discussed. Applications to real data are given.