Inferences from biased samples with a memory effect

Biased sampling occurs often in observational studies. With one biased sample, the problem of nonparametrically estimating both a target density function and a selection bias function is unidentifiable. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation problem when there are two biased samples that have some overlapping observations (i.e. recaptures) from a finite population. Since an intelligent subject sampled previously may experience a memory effect if sampled again, two general 2-stage models that incorporate both a selection bias and a possible memory effect are proposed. Nonparametric estimators of the target density, selection bias, and memory functions, as well as the population size are developed. Asymptotic properties of these estimators are studied and confidence bands for the selection function and memory function are provided. Our procedures are compared with those ignoring the memory effect or the selection bias in finite sample situations. A nonparametric model selection procedure is also given for choosing a model from the two 2-stage models and a mixture of these two models. Our procedures work well with or without a memory effect, and with or without a selection bias. The paper concludes with an application to a real survey data set.     

Likelihood inference for exchangeable continuous data with covariates and varying cluster sizes; use of the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern model

This article investigates the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern class of models for exchangeable continuous data. We show how the model specification can account for both individual and cluster level covariates, we derive insights from comparisons with the multivariate normal distribution, and we discuss maximum likelihood inference when a sample of independent clusters of varying sizes is available. We propose a method for maximum likelihood estimation which is an alternative to direct numerical maximization of the likelihood that sometimes exhibits non-convergence problems. We describe an algorithm for generating samples from the exchangeable multivariate Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern distribution with any marginals, using the structural properties of the distribution. Finally, we present the results of a simulation study designed to assess the properties of the maximum likelihood estimators, and we illustrate the use of the FGM distributions with the analysis of a small data set from a developmental toxicity study.     

手机报的传播特点及发展前景——以中国移动彩信手机报业务为例

随着第三代数字通讯(3G)在中国的普及、相关法律法规的逐步完善,手机新媒体将进一步完善其通讯及网络功能,创造一个更为巨大的媒体市场.手机报便是手机新媒体环境下诞生的新型媒介形态.近几年来,我国手机报发展迅速,具有很好的发展前景.对手机报进行传播学的解读,分析其发展中存在的种种不利因素及解决对策,对促进手机报的未来发展有重要的意义.     

André Dabrowski's work on limit theorems and weak dependence

André Robert Dabrowski, Professor of Mathematics and Dean of the Faculty of Sciences at the University of Ottawa, died October 7, 2006, after a short battle with cancer. The author of the present paper, a long‐term friend and collaborator of André Dabrowski, gives a survey of André's work on weak dependence and limit theorems in probability theory. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 307–326; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Local linear fitting and improved estimation near peaks

The authors look into the problem of estimating regression functions that exhibit jump irregularities in the first derivative. They investigate the behaviour of the bias in the local linear fit and show the superior performance of appropriate one‐sided versions of the local linear fit near such irregularities. They then propose an improved estimation procedure based on data‐driven selection of a conventional or one‐sided local linear fit according to a residual sum of squares type of criterion. The authors provide theoretical results and illustrate the method both on simulated and real‐life data examples. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 453–475; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

New aspects of Bregman divergence in regression and classification with parametric and nonparametric estimation

In statistical learning, regression and classification concern different types of the output variables, and the predictive accuracy is quantified by different loss functions. This article explores new aspects of Bregman divergence (BD), a notion which unifies nearly all of the commonly used loss functions in regression and classification. The authors investigate the duality between BD and its generating function. They further establish, under the framework of BD, asymptotic consistency and normality of parametric and nonparametric regression estimators, derive the lower bound of their asymptotic covariance matrices, and demonstrate the role that parametric and nonparametric regression estimation play in the performance of classification procedures and related machine learning techniques. These theoretical results and new numerical evidence show that the choice of loss function affects estimation procedures, whereas has an asymptotically relatively negligible impact on classification performance. Applications of BD to statistical model building and selection with non‐Gaussian responses are also illustrated. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 119‐139; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Evaluating social science and humanities knowledge production: an exploratory analysis of dynamics in science systems

Knowledge is gaining increasing importance in modern-day society as a factor of production and, ultimately, growth. This article explores the dynamics in university knowledge production and its effect on the state of university–industry–policy exchange in the Netherlands. Science systems are said to be in transformation. The university has evolved from performing conventional research and educational functions to serving as an innovation-promoting knowledge hub; dynamics that have received mixed reactions. The social sciences and humanities (SSH) take a special position, insofar as their focus seems primarily to be placed on conventional research and educational functions, and not directly on (commercial) valorization. Societal changes are, however, pressing for a reconsideration of the role of SSH. In our article, we distinguish between three important new movements that seem to be affecting SSH. It is believed that these movements, which are already having an impact today, will considerably influence SSH in the future. These developments are further differentiation, synthesis between the various subdisciplines of SSH and the natural sciences, and shifts in paradigms. The aims of this article are twofold: (1) to assess what is believed to be the most likely development of SSH by means of discovering relevant subsets of factors influencing university knowledge production; and (2) to discover whether the knowledge production factors show characteristics of a general development similar to the “Mode 2” concept. A systematic qualitative database was created by means of 22 semi-structured personal interviews with key representatives from business, university and the policy sector. Our explanatory framework employs an artificial intelligence method, i.e. rough set analysis. On the basis of these results, we find that a small minority of the respondents prefers a closer relationship of SSH to society, government and industry, and other institutional centers of authority, whilst interdisciplinarity in particular is regarded as having an overall positive influence on the future of SSH in the Netherlands. Consequently, the idea of a clear distinction between Mode 1 and Mode 2 knowledge production, i.e. traditional knowledge and knowledge carried out in the context of application, is not supported by our data.     

从"三斤鱼"的歧义现象看个体名词与度量词的相互搭配(一)

“数 度量 个体名词”结构在所指事物的个体数量上存在歧义现象,同一个异质个体事物名词分别加个体量词与度量词时存在有不同的语义变化,加度量词时表示的一定是人类领域意义上的同质“个体性”事物的类,侧重事物的属性。这种语义变化的制约性因素来自于度量词与个体名词两方面:前者从空间属性角度对事物“类”的计量分割,与度量词使用中的“利益原则”,造成了个体名词与之搭配度量词时所发生的一系列语义变化;而后者三个不同层次上的语义特征“[±有生]”、“[±个体同质]”、“[±属性突显]”,制约了个体名词内部次类同度量词的搭配选择,并由此给个体名词进行了下位划分。     

VC—Li2 CO3电解液添加剂对锂离子电池TMP基阻燃电解液电化学性能的影响

以磷酸三甲酯(TMP)为阻燃添加剂制备了4种锂离子电池电解液1mol·L-1LiPF6(1-y%)(ECn-DMC1.0-EMC1.0)-y%TMP((n,Y)=(1,44%),(1.5,39%),(2,35%),(1.0,0%)).考察了碳酸亚乙烯酯--碳酸锂添加剂对采用磷酸三甲酯阻燃添加刑的电解液的石墨负极与LiCoO2正极电化学性能的影响.结果表明,制备的1mol·L-1LiPF661%(EC1.5-DMC1.0-EMC1.0)-39%TMP-4%VC-0.05 mol·L-1CO3电解液具有较好的综合电化学性能,VC-Li2CO3添加剂有效抑制了TMP在碳电极的分解和共嵌入行为.采用这种电解液制备的Li/graphite电池的首次放电比容量为336.5 mAh·g-1、以0.1C倍率循环20次的放电比容量为334.5 mAh·g-1,制备的Li/LiCoO2电池的首次放电比容量为145.2 mAh·g-1、以0.1 C倍率循环20次的放电比容量为136.5 mAh·g-1.